Mohamad Nakhaee,
Volume 4, Issue 1 (11-2010)
Abstract
Today, one of the most problems, for the purpose of flood management is river flow prediction. Prevention of economic body suffering arise of flood is one of the most important achievements of correct flow prediction. Factors and divers parameters influence the discharge, make complex the analysis. Conception-physical model, regression models and time series are the most common- analytical approach of river flow. In this search by using of discharge data of Ghareh Ghanlo station in 13 years ago, the prediction of Sombar river discharge by Box-Jenkins was done. To do so, MINITAB software was used. Also for selecting of the best prediction model used of error evaluation factor and ARIMA (1,1,0) (2,1,1)12 was selected as the best prediction model and finally by use of these methods river discharge for 24 next month, was forecasted.
