دوره 9، شماره 32 - ( 4-1397 )
سال9 شماره 32 صفحات 177-129 |
برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
SALMANI Y, YAVARI K, Asgharpour H, SAHABI B. The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Debt in Iran. jemr 2018; 9 (32) :129-177
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1538-fa.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1538-fa.html
سلمانی یونس، یاوری کاظم، اصغرپور حسین، سحابی بهرام. اثرات اقتصاد کلان انواع بدهی‌های دولت در ایران. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1397; 9 (32) :129-177
یونس سلمانی1 
، کاظم یاوری* 2، حسین اصغرپور1 ، بهرام سحابی1
، کاظم یاوری* 2، حسین اصغرپور1 ، بهرام سحابی1
1- دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2- دانشگاه تربیت مدرس ،kyavari@modares.ac.ir
2- دانشگاه تربیت مدرس ،
چکیده: (7533 مشاهده)
یکی از مشکلات اساسی اقتصاد ایران کسری مستمر تراز عملیاتی بودجه بدلیل اندازه¬ غیربهینه دولت است. دولت همواره بخشی از این کسری را با ایجاد بدهی تامین مالی کرده است. بدهی-های دولت بسته به اندازه و نوع آنها پیامدهای متفاوتی در اقتصاد کلان دارند. از اینرو، در مطالعه-ی حاضر پیامدهای اقتصاد کلان انواع بدهی¬های دولت ایران طی دوره¬ی زمانی 1352-1393 با رویکرد SVAR بررسی شده است. یافته‌های تجربی نشان می‌دهد بدهی¬ دولت به نهادهای خارج از نظام بانکی به مازاد تقاضای کل، افزایش نسبت قیمت کالاهای غیرقابل‌تجارت به قابل‌تجارت و کاهشGDP منجر می¬شود. بدهی دولت به بانک مرکزی نیز تورم¬زا بوده و GDP را کاهش می¬دهد. بدهی دولت به سایر نهادهای سپرده‌پذیر منجر به افزایش نرخ ارز حقیقی، کاهش نسبت قیمت کالاهای غیرقابل تجارت به قابل تجارت، کاهش سطح عمومی قیمت¬ها و افزایش GDP می¬شود. همچنین بر اساس نتایج تجزیه واریانس، دولت می¬تواند با مدیریت بدهی¬های خود بخش قابل توجهی از تغییرات متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان را در کوتاه¬مدت و بلندمدت کنترل کند.
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
موضوع مقاله:
بخش عمومی
دریافت: 1396/1/24 | پذیرش: 1397/4/20 | انتشار: 1397/6/21
دریافت: 1396/1/24 | پذیرش: 1397/4/20 | انتشار: 1397/6/21
فهرست منابع
1. Abbasinejad H, Gudarzi Farahani Y, Moshtaridoust S. (2012). Dose Asymmetric of Monetary Policy Have a Real Effects on Economic?. Economic Development Research, 2(5), 69-94.
2. Afshari, Z., Shirin bakhsh, Sh. and Beheshti, M. (2012). Survey of Fiscal sustainability in Iran. Economics Research, 12(45), 27-54.
3. Aiyagari S.R. and Gertler M. (1985). The Backing of Government Bonds and Monetarism. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(1), 19-44. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(85)90004-2]
4. Apere, O. T. (2014). The Impact of Public Debt on Private Investment in Nigeria: Evidence from a Nonlinear Model. International Journal of Research in Social Sciences, 4(2), 130-138. [DOI:10.14738/assrj.24.1143]
5. Aworinde, O. B. (2013); Budget Deficits and Economic Performance; Doctoral dissertation: University of Bath.
6. Bahrami, J., Mohammadi, T., Bozorg, S. (2014). Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Price Indexes with the Approach of SVAR. Iranian Journal of Economic research, 19(60), 37-65.
7. Balaguer-Coll, M., N., Prior, D., Tortosa-Ausina, E. (2013). On the Determinants of Local Government debt: Does one Size Fit All?. Working Paper, Universititat Jaume.I, 1-29.
8. Baradaran Shoraka, H. R. and Cheraghi, D. (2000). The Effects of Directed Credit Facilities On Investment and Economic Growth During the Period 1359-1375. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 4(15), 147-170.
9. Barro, R. J. (1974). Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?. Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117. [DOI:10.1086/260266]
10. Barro, R., J. (1979). On the determination of the public debt. Journal of Political Economy, 87(5), 940-971. [DOI:10.1086/260807]
11. Becker, T. (1995). Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence. The Economic Research Institute Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance, Paper No. 71, 1-21.
12. Berentsen, A., & Waller, C. J. (2017). Liquidity Premiums on Government Debt and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 89, 173-182;
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.006 [DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.006.]
13. Branson, W. H. (1989). Macroeconomic Theory and Policy. 3rd edition, Harper & Row, London.
14. Bratsiotis, George J., and W., Robinson. (2004). Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Further Evidence from Mexico. Journal of International Money and Finance, 23 (4), 595-613. [DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2004.03.008]
15. Bruno M. and Fisher S. (1990). Seignorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105 (2), 353-374. [DOI:10.2307/2937791]
16. Checherita-Westphal, C., and P. Rother. (2012). the Impact of High Government Debt on Economic Growth and Its Channels: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area. European Economic Review, 56(7), 1392-1405. [DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.06.007]
17. Chen, Ch. C, Yaob, S., Hue, P. and Linf, y. (2016). Optimal Government Investment and Public Debt in an Economic Growth Model. China Economic Review, Available online 17 August 2016; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.08.005 [DOI:10.1016/j.chieco.2016.08.005]
18. Chugh, S. K. (2015). Modern Macroeconomics. MIT Press.
19. Curtaşu, A. R. (2011). How to Assess Public Debt Sustainability: Empirical Evidence for The Advanced European Countries. Romanian Journal of Fiscal Policy, 2(2), 20-43.
20. De Grauwe, P. (2011). The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone. Working Document 346, Ceps. [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.1898618]
21. De Luigi, C., & Huber, F. (2018). Debt Regimes and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, Available online 7 February 2018, 1-21; [DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.027]
22. Drazen, A. (1985). Tight Money and Inflation. Further Results. Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, Pp. 113-120. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(85)90056-X]
23. Ebrahimi, M and Salarian, M. (2009). An Analysis of the Natural Resource Curse in Oil Exporting Countries and The Effect of Being Opec On the Members' Growth Rate. Quarterly Journal Of Quantitative Economics (Quarterly Journal Of Economics Review), 6(1), 77 -100.
24. Elbourn, A. (2008). The UK Housing Market and the transmission of Monetary policy: an SVAR Approach. Journal of Housing Economics, 17, 65-87. [DOI:10.1016/j.jhe.2007.09.002]
25. Eldan, A. (1997). Financial Liberalisation and Fiscal Repression in Turkey: Policy Analysis in a CGE Model with Financial Markets. Journal of Policy Modelling, 19(1), 79-117. [DOI:10.1016/S0161-8938(96)00048-8]
26. Elmendorf, D. and N. G., Mankiw. (1999). Government Debt, in J. B. Taylor and M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, 1c, Amsterdam, North- Holland.
27. Farzanegan, M.R. and Markwardt, G. (2009). The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on The Irainian Economy. Energy Economics, 37, 134-151. [DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.003]
28. Farzinvash A, heydar H. Examining indirect effects of monetary policy on bank lending, through the balance-sheet items of the public and private banks in Iran. Journal of Economic Modeling Research (JEMR),1(2), 145-17.
29. Fatahi S, Heydari Dizgarani A, Askari E. (2014). The Study of Government Debt Sustainability in Iran's Economy. Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 2 (6), 67-86.
30. Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 58, 1-17.
31. Galí, J. (1994). Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability. European Economic Review, 38 (1), 117-132. [DOI:10.1016/0014-2921(94)90009-4]
32. Galinski, P. (2015). Determinants of Debt Limits in Local Governments: Case of Poland. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 213, 376 - 382. [DOI:10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.554]
33. Ghobadi, S. and Komijani, A. (2011). An Analysis of the Relationship between Monetary-Exchange Rate Policies and the public Debt and Theirs Effects on Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran, International Economics Studies, 37(2), 1-21.
34. Grobéty, M. (2018). Government Debt and Growth: The Role of Liquidity. Journal of International Money and Finance, 83, 1-22; [DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.01.004]
35. Hausmann, R., and U. Panizza. (2011). Redemption or Abstinence? Original Sin, Currency Mismatches and Counter Cyclical Policies in The New Millennium. Journal of Globalization and Development, 2(1), 1-35. [DOI:10.2202/1948-1837.1127]
36. Ho, T. K. (2005). Explaining the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination and Its Empirical Plausibility for Taiwan. Academia Economic Papers, 33, 241-277.
37. Jiménez, C. I. G. (2011); Economics of U.S. Government Debt Accumulation: Submitted to The Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for The Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
38. Khan, R. E. A., & Gill, A. R. (2009). Crowding Out Effect of Public Borrowing: A Case of Pakistan, MPRA Paper No. 16292; Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16292/
39. Khiabani N, Karimi-Petanlar S, Motameni M. (2012). Analyzing Iranian Government Fiscal Stability through Multicointegration. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting, 17(1),73-89.
40. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. and Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178. [DOI:10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y]
41. Lashkary, M. (2011). The Impact of Monetary Variables on Economic Growth in Iran: A Monetarists' Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 1(1), 105-79.
42. Leeper, Eric M. (1991). Equilibria Under 'Active' and 'Passive' Monetary and Fiscal Policies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 27(1), 129-147. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(91)90007-B]
43. Liviatan, N. (1984). Tight Money and Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics, 13, 5-15. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(84)90004-7]
44. Liviatan, N. (1986). Tight Money Paradox- an Alternative View. Journal of Macroeconomics, 8, 105-112. [DOI:10.1016/0164-0704(86)90036-4]
45. Liviatan, N. (1988). On Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policies under Perfect Foresight. Oxford Economic Papers, 40, 193- 203. [DOI:10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041844]
46. Loungani, P. and Swagel, P. (2001) Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries. International Monetary Fund, Washington IMF Working Paper 01/198. [DOI:10.5089/9781451860061.001]
47. Mahmoudinia D, Engwerda J, Dallali Esfahani R, Bakhshi Dastjerdi R, Fakhar M.V. (2016). Strategic Interaction Between Government and Central Bank in Framework of Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Games. Journal of Economic Modeling Research (JEMR), 6(24), 83-121. [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.24.83]
48. Majumder, A. M. (2007). Does public Borrowing Crowd-Out Private Investment? The Bangladesh Evidence. Policy Analysis Unit, Working Paper Series: WP 0708
49. Mehregan N, Mohammadzadeh P, Haghani M, Salmani Y. (2013). Investigating the Economic Growth Multi Behavior Patterns in Response to Crude Oil Price Volatility: An Application of GARCH Models and Markov Switching Regression Model. Journal of Economic Modeling Research (JEMR), 3(12), 73-101.
50. mehrghan, N., salmani, Y. (2014). Oil Price Volatility and Sustainable Economic Growth: a Case Study of Iran and Japan. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 3(10), 107-125.
51. Miller, P. J. (1983). Higher deficit policies lead to higher inflation. Quarterly Review, (Win).
52. Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. (2016). The Effects of Government Debt to Banking Sector On Economic Growth and That's Chanels. Office of Research and Financial Policies, Feb, Document No. 952512579.
53. Mirbahari, S. M. (2015). Exploring the Structure of Government Indebtedness to the Central Bank of Iran and Comparing It with the International Standards. Ravand (Quarterly Scientific and Specialized Journal of Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran), 22(70), 101-130.
54. Mohammadi, H. and baratzadeh, A. (2013). The Effect of Oil Revenue Shocks on Government Expenditure and Liquidity in Iran Economy. Iranian Energy Economics, 2(7), 129-145.
55. Mozayani, A. H. & Yavari, K. (2004). The effect of exchange rate changes on thr trade sector in Iran. Iranain journal of Economic Researches, 14(4), 90-107.
56. Mwikali Matiti, C. (2013). The Effect of Selected Determinants On Public Debt in Kenya; A Research Project Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement for The Award of the Degree of Master of Science Finance: University of Nairobi, Kenya.
57. Nazari, H. and Barzegar Doin, M. (2015). Investigating the Impact of Inflation on Growth in Iran Economy. Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 19(73), 145-170.
58. Piraee, K., Dadvar, B. (2011). The Effect of Inflation on Economic Growth in Iran with Special Emphasis on Uncertainty. The Economic Research, 11(1), 67-80.
59. Ramey, G. and V. Ramey. (1995). Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth. American Economic Review, 85, 1138-51. [DOI:10.3386/w4959]
60. Rawdanowicz, Ł., E. Wurzel and P., Ollivaud. (2011). Current Issues in Managing Government Debt and Assets. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 923, OECD, Publishing. Http://Dx.Doi.Org/10.1787/5kg0kp6s6c0s-En [DOI:10.1787/5kg0kp6s6c0s-en]
61. Saeidi, P. and Abbasi, E. (2011). The Effect of Commercial Banks Credits On Economic Growth Evidence: Golestan Province. Journal of Industrial Strategic Management (Pajouheshgar), 8(23, 14-22.
62. salmani, Y., yavari, K., sahabi, B., asgharpour, H. (2016). The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Government Debt on Economic Growth in Iran. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 5(18), 81-107.
63. Samadi, A. H. and Zare Hagigi, N. (2013). Reexamining the Relationship between Government Revenues and Expenditures in Iran: Symmetric or Asymmetric?. Economics Research, 12(47), 123-152.
64. Samsami, H., Davoodi, P., Amiri Javid, H. (2016). Comparing Effectiveness of Liquidity Growth on GDP, Private Investment and Employment with Assets Market Bubble. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 51(2), 457-493.
65. Sargent, T.J. and Wallace, N. (1981). Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5, 1-17.
66. Sargent, Thomas J. (1987). Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory, Cambridge. MA: Harvard University Press
67. Sharifi Renani, H., Tavakoli, A., Honarvar, N. (2018). Effect of Agricultural Credit Banks on the Value Added of Agricultural Sector in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 21(84), 201-227.
68. Sims, Ch. (1994). A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy. Economic Theory, 4(3), 381-399. [DOI:10.1007/BF01215378]
69. Sims, Ch. (1998). Econometric Implications of the Government Budget Constraint. Journal of Econometrics, 83, 9-19. [DOI:10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00063-8]
70. Soltan toyeh, M, Akbari , M. and Resaeian, A. (2013). Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran (Rolling Linear Regression). Monetary & Banking Researches, 6(14), 49-68
71. Swamy, V. (2015). Government Debt and its Macroeconomic Determinants- An Empirical Investigation. MPRA Paper No. 64106, posted 5. May 2015 05:55 UTC; Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64106/
72. Thomas, Jr. (2000). Money Banking and Economic Activity. Wiley and Sons.
73. Umaru, A., Hamidu, A.A. and S., Musa. (2013). External Debt and Domestic Debt Impact on the Growth of the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Educational Research, 1(2), 70-85.
74. Williamson, S. D. (2018). Can the Fiscal Authority Constrain the Central Bank?. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 89, 154-172;
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.015 [DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.015.]
75. Woodford, M. (1994). Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy. Economic Theory, 4(3), 345-380. [DOI:10.1007/BF01215377]
76. Woodford, M. (1995). Price Level Determinacy without Control of a Monetary Aggregate. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 43, 1-46. [DOI:10.1016/0167-2231(95)90033-0]
ارسال پیام به نویسنده مسئول
| بازنشر اطلاعات | |
 | این مقاله تحت شرایط Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License قابل بازنشر است. |
