Showing 8 results for Jafari
Dr Ahmad Jafari Samimi, Saman Ghaderi, Salahaddin Ghaderi, Taha Ketabi,
Volume 4, Issue 13 (10-2013)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of trade openness and economic globalization on employment. This study employs the Bounds test method and Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model for Iranian economy during 1979-2009. Comparing with the other empirical studies, this study in addition to traditional index of trade liberalization as trade openness has been applied the new and more comprehensive economic globalization index as one dimension of the new KOF globalization index. This index includes the actual flows of trade such as trade, foreign direct investment and portfolio investment, and restrictions such as trade barriers and tariffs on actual flows. Also, the other control variables effective in employment such as GDP per capita, industrialization and government size has been considered. The results show a negative relationship between trade openness and employment but they show that the impact of economic globalization on employment is positive. Thus, it seems that the new economic globalization (KOF index) which is a broader comprehensive index is a better proxy of globalization.
Ahmad Jafari Samimi, Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri,
Volume 5, Issue 17 (10-2014)
Abstract
The main objective of this study was to investigate weak efficient market hypothesis of Tehran stock exchange. For this purpose, total price index, financial index, industry index and the index's top 50 companies data for the period 2013:7-2009:5 daily basis as well as data on prices and yields for the period 2013:2 - 2000:3 are applied on a monthly basis. In this study, the hypothesis of the poor performance of the Tehran stock exchange, using wavelets and fractional Brownian motion is investigated. The results show the aforementioned hypotheses are rejected.
Ahmad Jafari Samimi, Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
Given the importance and role of capital markets in the economy, its characteristics have been regarded by researchers in this field. Hence, the main purpose of the present study is testing the existence of multiple price bubbles in Tehran stock market. For this purpose, the monthly data on the total price index and price-dividend ratio for periods 2000 – 2013 has been used. In this study generalized supremum Augmented Dickey – Fuller test, which has been recently introduced, is used due to critical review of conventional methods of testing the bubbles and also the possibility of a multiple bubble in time series. In addition to the testing of multiple Bubbles, with using this method there is the possibility of determining their period of creation and decay. The results showed that in the period under review, in the period 2003:3 - 2003:5 and 2004:12 - 2005:7 hypotheses price bubble in the stock market is confirmed.
Ezatollah Abbasian, Mohammad Jafari, Ebrahim Nasiroleslami, Farzaneh Farzaneh Mohammadi,
Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)
Abstract
In recent years, with increasing of international sanctions and oil revenues falling in Iran, more attention has paid to public spending and taxes as a source of government financing. In this regard, numerous studies have focused on the issue of taxation and its role in economic development. However, the most studies in Iran analyses the role of taxes on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation and income inequality, and there is no research in the row of the changes in tax income over the business cycle. In this study, using the dynamic least squares method, short and long-run elasticity of tax bases in Iran in response to changes in GDP over the period 1973-2014 is calculated. The results shows that in the long run, the elasticity of income and corporate tax are statistically greater than one and for other tax bases are not significantly different from the unit. In the short run, elasticity of corporate tax is different from unit and other tax bases were not significantly different than unity. According to these results, it is suggested that the Iranian government should have less focusing on income and corporate tax during the recession period
Javid Bahrami, Davoud Daneshjafari, Mohamad Sayadi, Pegah Pasha,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)
Abstract
Oil Revenue Management (ORM) has always been one of the key challenges facing the oil rich developing countries. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to provide a dynamic macroeconometric model adapted to the state of the Iranian economy. Also, the assessment of the dynamics of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its impact on macroeconomic variables are discussed. The results of the study, based on the out of sample and the four scenarios (the existence and absence of the NDF, the change in the share of the fund from oil revenues, the Fund's floating share of oil revenues, and the scenario of the fund exposure with temporary and permanent oil shocks) indicate that, The creation of a NDF in the short term will not improve the situation of macroeconomic variables, and the positive effects of such a policy will appear in the long run. The reason for this the private sector investment was time consuming and, consequently, the increase in non-oil sector production in the economy. Nevertheless, it is possible in the short term that by designing foreign exchange or budgetary policies, the initial downturn in the level of economic activity may be reduced by the stablization of the fund. Moreover, as in the mechanism of the fund, the floating share of oil revenues (adopting an anticyclical policy in allocating oil revenues to the fund) will help to reduce the negative consequences of shocks in the short run, because the lowest initial inflationary pressures, fluctuations in exchange rates and the net debt of the public sector occurs under this scenario.
Ali Akbar Bajelan, Saeed Karimi Potanlar, Ahmad Jafari Samimi,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
The purpose of current paper is to survey the asymmetric effects of inflation's positive and negative shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. For this end, first, the Ball model (1992) has been extended through the decomposition of inflation shocks to money demand's positive and negative shocks and money supply's positive and negative shocks. Then, through using nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model and time series data of Iranian economy from 1978 to 2017 the positive and negative effects of inflation on inflation uncertainty, which is from the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, has been analyzed. The results of the study show that the effects of the inflation's positive shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run are positive and significant. In contrast, the negative shocks have not any effects on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. In other words, the rise in inflation causes an increase in inflation uncertainty in Iran; whereas, decrease in inflation has not had effects on inflation uncertainty.
Mojtaba Khodam, Mohsen Nosratian Nasab, Ahmad Jafari Samimi,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2021)
Abstract
Considering the challenges related to estimating and forecasting the expected Shortfall dynamically and with a semi-parametric approach, in this study, providing a general framework, dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting Expected Shortfall in Tehran Stock Exchange be introduced and evaluated. In this regard, the data of the period 2008.12.04-2020.08.26 and Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) approach are used to introducing dynamic semi-parametric models (GAS-2F, GAS-1F, GARCH-FZ and hybrid). Then expected Shortfall (ES) in Tehran Stock Exchange be estimated and forecasting performance of these models are compared with traditional models in this field, including GARCH models and rolling window models based on backtesting their results. The results of this study indicate better performance of dynamic semi-parametric models in forecasting the expected Shortfall (ES) than competing models. In addition, the GAS-1F model has shown the best performance among all models.
Abolfazl Shahabadi, Marzieh Jafari Ghazvinian, Samineh Ghasemifar,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
Development of the entrepreneurship space by helping to nurture entrepreneurs and increase the attitudes, abilities and aspirstions for entrepreneurship has a positive effect on the economic and social growth of societies. Because entrepreneurship is a source of innovation, employment, and economic growth and development. Therefore, determine the factors affecting of the entrepreneurship space is important in the economics and management disciplines. In this regard, the present study attempted to investigate the interactive impact of risk institution including political, economic and financial risks and abundance of natural resources on entrepreneurship space in resource-rich selected countries during the period 2014-2018. In order to achieve this goal, the research model was estimated using panel data approach and generalized moment method in two groups of countries. The results showed that the individual impact of political, economic and financial risks and the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries were negative and significant. Also, the interactive impact of political, economic and financial risks with the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries is negative and significant. However, the estimated coefficient of their interactive impact is larger than the estimated coefficient of their individual impact. Also, the impact of control variables gender gap and unemployment rate on the entrepreneurship space is negative and significant, and the impact of intellectual property rights on the entrepreneurship space is positive and significant.
