Showing 3 results for erfani
Dr Alireza Erfani, Azadeh Talebbeydokhti,
Volume 4, Issue 12 (7-2013)
Abstract
The commitment and forward-looking behavior of central bank is of great importance. Commitment imposes less social costs on the central bank and the public. However, while there is wide agreement on the importance of commitment, there is much less consensus on how to implement commitment through targeting or instrumental rules.
In this paper, we have estimated a basic New Keynesian model in Iran economy based on quarterly data over a sample period for 1990-2010. Then, we introduced a kind of instrumental rules that is called Speed Limit rule. The main feature of this rule is that the output gap is replaced by the changes in the output gap in the central bank's loss function. Then, by calculating appropriate weights under alternative targeting rules, we showed that this rule has the lowest social costs. Then, assuming the use of interest rate as primary monetary policy by the central bank, it is optimal to consider the role of the changes in the output gap (i.e. speed limit rule) in addition to the role of inflation and the output gap. As we expected, the estimation results of this instrumental rule in Iran economy showed that this rule has not been used for determining the interest rate. In other words, among the variables considered, only inflation rate has a positive and significant relationship with the interest rate, and the output gap and the changes in the output gap are not used in determining the interest rate.
Dr Alireza Erfani, Khayam Sadeghi, Mohammad Mahdi Poya,
Volume 4, Issue 13 (10-2013)
Abstract
Simple sum monetary aggregation approach that based upon perfect substitution of monetary components assumption is inconsistent with microeconomics theories. In this research, using quarterly data of Iran over period 1370:1–1388:1, we first calculate monetary aggregation based on divisia index for both measures of money (M1, M2) and then estimate the demand functions for money for divisia and simple sum monetary aggregations separately.
The results show that the adjustment speed of divisia aggregations is more than that of simple sum aggregations and the demand functions for money that construct by divisia aggregations, are more stable.
Ali Siami, Alireza Erfani, Seyad Mohammad Mostolizadeh,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of parametric reforms on the financial sustainability of the Social Security Organization, the largest social insurance organization in the country. To this end, an overlapping generations general equilibrium model is employed. The issue is analyzed through four different scenarios. The results show that in the first scenario, increasing life expectancy by 3 years without changing the retirement age will increase the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2%. In the second scenario, increasing the retirement age by 2 years and reducing life expectancy by 1 year will decrease the ratio of expenditures to resources by about 0.8%. In this case, the share of retirees' consumption in production and the labor force participation rate will decrease by 5% and 3%, respectively. In the third scenario, raising insurance premiums by 2% will not cause significant changes in the ratio of expenditures to resources due to a reduction in labor supply. Finally, in the fourth scenario, increasing both the retirement age and life expectancy by 2 and 3 years, respectively, will raise the ratio of expenditures to resources of the Social Security Organization by approximately 2.4%.
