Showing 10 results for ghasemi
Homa Ghasemi, Dr Mostafa Dinmohammadi, Dr Esmaeil Najafi,
Volume 2, Issue 6 (12-2011)
Abstract
Data envelopment analysis (DEA) estimates the relative performance of decision making units (DMUs). This paper uses the idea of the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method and fuzzy set theory to modify the model of DEA which can be used to evaluate the performance of business units. In this paper, a new method has been proposed for estimating the performance of DMUs with interval data and weights of data. The models proposed in previous studies have interval data or interval weights of data, so the proposed model has more flexibility than previous studies . Thus, innovation has been done theoretically and the experimental part is for testing the theory. Finally, a method is introduced for ranking the DMUs by computed performance. In order to prove the applicability of the proposed method, a case study for ranking of some Iranian automotive companies products is given. The model results indicate that the proposed model will be useful for practical problems, especially when the number of choices is limited.
Abbass Memarzadeh, Ali Emami Meibodi, Hamid Amadeh, Amin Ghasemi Nejad,
Volume 4, Issue 14 (12-2013)
Abstract
Abstract
Forecasting of crude oil price plays a crucial role in optimization of production, marketing and market strategies. Furthermore, it plays a significant role in government’s policies, because the government sets and implements its policies not only according to the current situation but also according to short run and long run predictions of important economic variables like oil price. The main purpose of this study is modeling and forecasting spot oil price of Iran by using GARCH model and A Gravitational Search Algorithm. Performed forecasts of this study are based in static and out-of-sample forecasting and each subseries data is divided in to two parts: data for estimation and data for forecasting. The forecast horizon is next leading period and its length is one month. In this study the selected models for forecasting spot oil of Iran are GARCH(2,1) and a Cobb Douglas function which is functional of prices of 5 days ago. Finally, the performances of these models are compared. For comparison of these models MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE criteria are used and the results indicate that except in MAPE criterion, the mentioned criteria are smaller for GARCH model in comparison to GSA algorithm.
Habibi Morovat, Abbas Ghasemi, Hasan Hakami,
Volume 7, Issue 23 (3-2016)
Abstract
Modeling price fluctuations in financial markets is very important. We try to model price fluctuations in Tehran stock exchange using heterogeneous agents’ model. We used agent-based computational approach. In this model, there are two kinds of agents, some agents have extrapolating expectations (chartists) and others have stabilizing or mean-reverting expectations (fundamentalists). The dynamics of shares of these two types of agents make price fluctuations. For determining the relative effectiveness of agents expectations, Diechi and Westerhoff (2012) method, is used. For this purpose, weekly data of Tehran Stock Exchange price index (TEPIX) from 1997 to 2014 were used. Modeling results show that the relative sensitivity of buyers with different expectations, and their relative impact to aggregate demand, have significant and important role in the price dynamics of Tehran stock market. We also show that the relative impact of chartists to price fluctuations very important and over the past two decades, the share of them from aggregate demand have been more than 80 percent.
Mahdi Ghaemi Asl, Elahe Ghasemi Nik,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
In this research, the factors affecting assets quality in banking system of Iran and some implications for creating appropriate buffers of liquidity and non-performing loans in bank assets management has been investigated. In order to that, statistical data related to macroeconomic variables and financial statements of 30 banks from 2006 to 2016 have been used in the framework of a dynamic panel specification. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between inflation rate, domestic gross production growth rate, bank share of total revenues, market Structure and bank liquidity with asset quality, but the growth rate of facilities and special and general reserves for non-performing loans have no significant effect on asset quality. Thus, the framework and the amount of special and general reserves for non-performing loans (unlike the liquidity buffer) failed to provide the necessary buffer to improve the quality of bank assets; so, one of the most important reasons for the persistent aggravation and lack of management of the volume of non-performing loans in banking system is dysfunctional and non-observance of the law in the maintenance of special and general reserves. The main requirement for correcting these conditions is to closely monitor the volume of reserves before refinancing and double overdraft from the central bank and other banks and credit institutions.
Ali Takroosta, Parisa Mohajeri, Taymour Mohammadi, Abbas Shakeri , Abdoulrasoul Ghasemi ,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Oil price wild fluctuations impact the economies of developing countries as well as those of developed ones. Focusing on OPEC’s political risks as a proxy of precautionary demand, this study aims to disentangle oil price factors using an SVAR approach for 1994Q1 to 2016Q4. We disentangled oil price shocks into political risks, supplies, global demand for industrial goods and other oil price shocks. Our results highlight that shocks originated from different sources affect oil prices differently in terms of both their lifetime and directions. Besides, it is revealed that the structure of oil market has changed due to the 2008 financial crisis, increased oil price fluctuations, changes in OPEC’s behaviour and accordingly its market power, and the advent of new shale oil technologies, thus affecting oil price sensitivities. Therefore, we found out that OPEC’s political risks affected oil markets way more significantly in 2008-2016.
Hassan Dargahi, Mojtaba Ghasemi, Sajjad Fatollahi,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
This study investigates the relation between bounced checks and economic growth through the banking credit risk channel by estimation of a simultaneous equation system with panel data for 31 Iranian provinces covers the years from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, after identifying determinants of the bounced checks, the relations of this variable with the non-performing loans, banking loans and economic growth are evaluated. The results confirm the positive relationship between the bounced checks to GDP ratio and the prices index, whereas the impacts of output deviation from trend and the index of enforcement of laws on the bounced checks are negative. In times of stagflation, with the decreasing possibility of defaults, the bounced checks tend to grow. Also, with the development of legal and judicial system in the country with a view to boosting institutional and governance quality, the number of bounced checks decreases on the scale of economic activities. On the other hand, the number of bounced checks after fixing the control variables will lead to an increase of non-performing loans and the bank credit risk. Meanwhile the impact of bank loans on economic growth through the productivity channel is meaningful and positive. Therefore, in the Iranian economy the increase of bounced checks through the channel of bank loaning power will have a negative influence on economic growth.
Mrs Narges Ghasemian, Proffesor Hossein Raghfar, Engineer Faramarz Ekhteraei,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
Drugs as a strategic and subsidized commodity and an urgent need for patients have been constantly of particular importance, specially, in the health-care system of a society. On the other hand, one of the parameters concerning the assessment of the family welfare is the amount spent for satisfaction of divergent needs. The more a family spends on essential necessities such as food, housing, clothing and higher education, the less is expected to be devoted to health care. Concerning drugs, the demand for different drugs may vary depending on the patients' attitudes, the type of illnesses and their income elasticity. The objective of the present research is to investigate the demand for orphan drugs for refractory diseases regarding various income groups in Iran applying Agent-based Models (ABMs). In this research, the behavior dynamics of the orphan drugs applicants and the diversity of their demands in miscellaneous price scenarios resulting from inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate have been scrutinized in accordance with ABM. To this end, one thousand family applicants for orphan drugs, extracted from Iran's statistics center, were categorized in five different income ventiles. Their reactions towards the increase of the price of the aforementioned drugs are predicted based on Net Logo simulation software. The results indicate that the average of price elasticity of demand for generic and branded drugs has been -0.39 and -0.05 percent, respectively; similarly, the demand for these two drug groups has been decreased by the same amount. In the lowest income ventile as the price of generic and branded orphan drugs deceases, for the lowest income ventile families, the allocated expenses for these drugs has been decreased by 3.3 percent and 31.85 percent, respectively. The main reason for the aforementioned problem is assigned to the low budget of the patients' family and its allocation to essential necessities of life such as food and housing. The severity of the cost reduction in branded drugs is due to the fact that it can be replaced by generic drugs.
Abolfazl Shahabadi, Marzieh Jafari Ghazvinian, Samineh Ghasemifar,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
Development of the entrepreneurship space by helping to nurture entrepreneurs and increase the attitudes, abilities and aspirstions for entrepreneurship has a positive effect on the economic and social growth of societies. Because entrepreneurship is a source of innovation, employment, and economic growth and development. Therefore, determine the factors affecting of the entrepreneurship space is important in the economics and management disciplines. In this regard, the present study attempted to investigate the interactive impact of risk institution including political, economic and financial risks and abundance of natural resources on entrepreneurship space in resource-rich selected countries during the period 2014-2018. In order to achieve this goal, the research model was estimated using panel data approach and generalized moment method in two groups of countries. The results showed that the individual impact of political, economic and financial risks and the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries were negative and significant. Also, the interactive impact of political, economic and financial risks with the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries is negative and significant. However, the estimated coefficient of their interactive impact is larger than the estimated coefficient of their individual impact. Also, the impact of control variables gender gap and unemployment rate on the entrepreneurship space is negative and significant, and the impact of intellectual property rights on the entrepreneurship space is positive and significant.
Yasin Ghasemi, Abbas Khandan, Narges Akbarpour-Roshan,
Volume 13, Issue 47 (5-2022)
Abstract
The pension coverage of the Iranian Social Security Organization for self-employed workers is offered at three contribution rates of 12, 14 and 18 percent, but looking at the statistics shows that the demand for these types of insurances is low. This research investigates the characteristics of these insured groups by using data mining and applying two machine learning algorithms, decision tree and random forest, and predicts their behavior by providing a classification model. This will help the Social Security Organization to improve customer relationship management. For this purpose, the information of 1286174 insured persons of self-employed in 2020 was used, which includes the characteristics of age, gender, average monthly income, the years of service, and the type of self-employed pension scheme. The obtained results show that women mainly apply for the scheme with 12 percent contribution, while men tend to be covered by schemes with contribution rates of 14 and 18 percent due to the burden of supporting the family. Also, for men, the demand for schemes of 14 and 18 percent increases with the increase of age, income and years of service, but there are no such trends for women. According to the obtained results, years of service and then gender are decisive in choosing the type of pension scheme in such a way that according to the prediction of the model, people with less than 4.5 years of service are known as definite applicants for 12 percent self-employed pension scheme.
Hamid Ghasemian, Abdolhamid Moarefi Mohammadi, Mohammadreza Heidari Khorasgani, Alimorad Sharifi,
Volume 16, Issue 59 (5-2025)
Abstract
Introduction
The growing energy imbalances in the country, which are caused by the higher growth rate of demand and consumption than supply and production, have made the need for planning to solve energy problems more evident than ever before. Undoubtedly, the continuation of the increasing trend of energy imbalances in the country's key carriers will cause economic, social and security effects and consequences. On the other hand, according to economic theories, trade liberalization increases efficiency, economies of scale, improves competition, improves the productivity of production factors and increases trade flows, and ultimately leads to economic growth. On the other hand, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has great capacities in the energy sector (with about a quarter of the world's population, it controls 23% of oil, 55% of natural gas and 35% of the world's coal). Undoubtedly, the accession of observer countries, especially Iran, will increase the potential and capacities of this organization. Therefore, in this study, the impact of trade tariff reduction between Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the balance of various energy types in Iran was scenario-based.
Method
No study has analyzed the impact of trade liberalization policy between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member countries on the energy balance in Iran, and this study addresses this issue by using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Also, among the computable general equilibrium models, the multi-regional general equilibrium model is specifically designed for analyzing world trade and can conduct research and studies on the international flow of goods and services and factors of production in a dynamic and static manner. Using a multi-regional general equilibrium model instead of a single-regional general equilibrium model has several advantages. One of the strengths of these models is their ability to help understand the relationship between sectors, countries, and factors of production on a global scale. Among the multi-regional general equilibrium models, the Energy-Based World Trade Analysis Project model provides diverse possibilities for world trade and energy-related research.
This study examines the impact of reducing trade tariffs between Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization under scenarios of -25%, -50% and -100% on the balance of various energy sources in Iran, including crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, coal and electricity. For this purpose, the necessary data were extracted from the Global Trade Analysis Project for Energy-Based (GTAP-E) version 10 database, which includes the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 141 countries or regions and 65 sectors. Finally, the data were analyzed using MATLAB software.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that reducing trade tariffs between Iran and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, on the one hand, due to the ease of exporting energy carriers (especially crude oil and petroleum products) and on the other hand, due to the increased use of fossil energy exploration, production, and distribution technologies (especially crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, and coal), leads to a decrease in fossil energy consumption and an increase in the net balance of fossil energy in Iran. In addition, the reduction of trade tariffs between Iran and other member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, due to the possibility of increasing imports of goods and equipment that consume less energy needed in various domestic, industrial (light and heavy industries), transportation and agricultural sectors (tractors, combines, etc.), as well as increasing cooperation in the development of renewable energy technologies, will lead to an increase in the consumption of renewable energies and a decrease in the consumption of the energy carriers under consideration (especially electricity), and ultimately an increase in their net energy balance in Iran.
