Elham Gholami, Yegane Mousavi Jahromi,
Volume 6, Issue 20 (7-2015)
Abstract
Cigarette and tobacco products in the VAT Law is considered as one of the particular goods and in order to contorlingit’s consumption by price tools, higher tax rates than the standard rate will be levied on it. In this paper, forecasting of revenues of this tax using an approach based on the estimating of tax base has been considered. Thus the first stage, tax base (consumption expenditure) is forecasted for the period 2012 to 2015 and then tax related years by applying the tax rates, will be calculated. In this regard, Because of concerns that policy makers have access to accurate predictions of tax revenues, Supervised neural networks Method to prediction and back-propagation algorithm to train is used. The results indicate that the average annual growth of revenue from value added tax on Cigarette consumption will have 20 percent during the forecasting years.
English Habib Habib Shirafken Lamso, English Amir Gholami, English Seyyed Mehdi Ahmadi,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
This research aims to model the effective systematic risks of financial recovery in the insurance industry. This research is a type of applied research. The period of research is 11 years (1400-1390). For this purpose, the information on 14 systematic risks affecting the financial solvency of insurance companies was entered into dynamic, selective, and Bayesian averaging models. Based on the error rate, the Bayesian averaging model had the highest accuracy among the selected models. After estimating the model, 5 economic growth risks, inflation uncertainty, exchange rate, sanctions, and KOF index were selected; Also, based on the results of the TVPFAVAR model, it was assessed that the impact shock of the selected variables in the long-term period is stronger than the short-term period, which indicates that the elasticity of financial prosperity is greater than the changes in systematic risk variables compared to the short-term elasticity. Based on the results of economic growth and the KOF index, the positive effect and uncertainty variables of inflation, exchange rate, and sanctions hurt financial wealth in the general trend.
Mr Seyed Mojtaba Frozan, Dr Amir Gholami, Dr Seyed Mohammad Mehdi Ahmadi,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
Creating the necessary conditions for growth and development is one of the goals of any economic system, which requires the application of correct economic policies, the identification and application of the components that affect growth, and as a result, the establishment of economic stability that leads to economic development and maintaining interests. It becomes national. Therefore, in order to achieve economic growth and to be on the path of economic development, it is necessary to consider the factors affecting economic growth. Among them, we can point out the control of inflation (growth of liquidity) and the reduction of income inequality. In this regard, examining the impact of monetary policies on these variables (stability, liquidity and inequality) can be effective and useful. Monetary policies are among the most important macroeconomic policies, which are among the main duties of central banks. Therefore, in this research, we investigate the influence of central bank independence on liquidity growth, unequal distribution of income and economic stability using time series data from 1981 to 2014. In the upcoming study, three sections were considered. The first part is the relationship between central bank independence and liquidity growth, the second part is the relationship between central bank independence and income distribution, and the third part is the relationship between central bank independence and economic stability. In each section, the influence of the economic indicators of the central bank's independence on the desired dependent variables was also examined. The calculated index for central bank independence in this study is a composite index. The results of the hypotheses test showed that the independence of the central bank has a positive and significant relationship with the growth of liquidity in Iran and a negative and significant relationship with the unequal distribution of income during the period under review and finally a positive and significant relationship with economic stability in Iran.
Mr Mostafa Gholami, Dr Zeinolabedin Sadeghi, Dr Seyyed Abdul Majid Jalaee Esfandabadi, Dr Mehdi Nejati,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
One of the most important goals of policymakers is to increase the rate of economic growth while keeping the environment clean, which is possible through the use of modern technologies and the influx of capital into the country. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important source for promoting energy-efficient technologies around the world. One of the most important issues in today's world, especially in developing countries, including Iran, is securing the necessary capital to advance economic and environmental goals. For this reason, the present study examines the effects of foreign direct investment on macroeconomic and environmental variables using a computable general equilibrium static model. Two scenarios have been analyzed and examined as the effects of a doubling of FDI, one on the electricity sector and the other on the entire economy. The results showed that in both scenarios, economic growth increased and the general level of prices decreased, but the effect was greater in the second scenario. Electricity production also increased in both scenarios. But household welfare has decreased with increasing foreign direct investment. In the carbon emission variable, the pollution halo hypothesis is confirmed in the first scenario, and the pollution haven hypothesis is confirmed in the second scenario. It is suggested that the government, in addition to providing domestic platforms for the entry of foreign capital, also pay due attention to domestic capital owners.
