Showing 7 results for heidari
Dr Hassan Heidari, Sahar Bashiri,
Volume 3, Issue 9 (10-2012)
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and stock price index in Tehran stock exchange for the period of 1995-2009 by using monthly data and applying Bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (Bivariate GARCH). The results show that there is a negative and significant relationship between real exchange rate uncertainty and stock price index. However, the relationship between stock price uncertainty and real exchange rate is insignificant. Therefore, our results recommend that the policies which cause more volatility in the exchange market and also more volatility in the real exchange rate should be avoided to ensure the sustainable growth of the stock market and its price index.
Hassan Heidari, Rana Asghari,
Volume 5, Issue 18 (12-2014)
Abstract
Changes infertility ratesasone of the factors affecting the demographic changes and its rolein the labor supply and there fore economic growth, as an important element ofsocio-economic development of every country is considered. So that the importance of demographic changes in each country in recent years has increased resulting aging population in general and specifically decreased fertility that increased concerns for the global economy and the majority of developing countries-including Iran. However, the range of empirical studies in incurred countries is very limited and in most studies, the surface shape of the subject has investigated in a simple line a reconometric model. Thus this study investigates the impact of fertility’s changes one conomic well-being in selected MENAcountries over the 1970-2010. We apply dynamic consumer optimization model that incorporates end ogenous fertility as well as end ogenous education and health investments offered by Prettner and et al. (2013). The estimation results of non-linear panel smooth transition regression model reports the negative effect of fertility and positive effect of revenue and population on effective labor force, which show that the quantity-quality trade off in population acts in favor of labor force and increases its quality and causes output growth and well-being. This issue is in ferable from positive effect of population on education and health-as delineator indices for well-being- in the countries under investigation.
Nooshin Bordbar, Ebrahim Heidari,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
The present article studies the interactive relationships between oil price volatility and industries stocks of basic metals, petroleum and chemical products by using Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastisity (GARCH) models from March 2004 to March 2015 empirically . In this research, the VAR-GARCH model is proposed, which is developed by Ling and McAleer (2003). The model survives the return and volatility problems among the considered series and this is the VAR-GARCH advantage. The results show that there are Average effects between oil market and stocks market of basic metals and petroleum products, But this effects are not true for chemical industry market. The volatility effects between world oil price and chemical and basic metals industry markets is not existed, but between oil market volatility and petroleum products stock volatility, Significant negative relationship is existed. There for, the investors should reduce their portfolios basket dependences on oil price as much as possible.
Maryam Heidarian, Ali Falahati, Mohammad Sharif Karimi,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
There is a situation that due to economic shocks and imbalances in structural budgets and its continuation leads to stress in governments in uncertainty conditions. Fiscal stress as a volatile situation in financing of local governments can exacerbate the inability of governments to meet short-term and long-term fiscal commitments and excessive dependence on the central government. So the positive and negative effects of stress are related to the actions and responses of central and local governments. It is essential that policymakers in central and local governments pay attention to accurate and timely signs of fiscal stress for respond to stresses effects. In this study, we tried to clarify the fiscal situation in 31 provinces of Iran by calculating the local fiscal stress index from variables of fiscal structure and budget of each province and then estimate the threshold and spatial effects of the index through Panel Smooth Transition Regression method on economic growth and employment over the period 2005-2017. The results show that border provinces have the highest stress among other provinces, and provinces located in the center or near the capital have less stress. These results indicate the high centralism that exists in the provinces of Iran and has hindered the fiscal independence of local governments so that they can control and regulate their own revenues and expenditures, and in this case, they suffer less fiscal pressure and stress.
Dr Mohammad Sayadi, Mr Hamed Heidarian, Dr Sajad Rajabi,
Volume 16, Issue 59 (5-2025)
Abstract
Natural gas is currently the most important energy carrier in Iran’s production and consumption mix, and its share is expected to increase in the coming years. Any imbalance in the supply and demand of this key energy source can have significant effects on the value added across various economic sectors. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of natural gas imbalances on sectoral value added and Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP), using an updated input–output model based on 2023 data. Four scenarios are considered: (1) no prioritization of sectors under imbalance conditions; (2) prioritization based on social and political considerations; (3) no prioritization along with the absence of consumption management policies; and (4) a combination of social-political prioritization with lack of consumption control policies. The results indicate that sectors such as “chemical products manufacturing,” “natural gas production and distribution,” and “electricity generation and distribution” suffer the most significant declines in value added, output, and employment due to their direct and indirect dependence on natural gas. In contrast, sectors like “motor vehicle manufacturing” and “poultry farming,” which are minimally dependent on gas, experience relatively lower economic losses. Moreover, under the second scenario (12% imbalance without affecting final demand), GDP in 2041 is projected to decline by about 3% more compared to the third scenario (21% imbalance with uniform impact across all sectors).
Hamid Ghasemian, Abdolhamid Moarefi Mohammadi, Mohammadreza Heidari Khorasgani, Alimorad Sharifi,
Volume 16, Issue 59 (5-2025)
Abstract
Introduction
The growing energy imbalances in the country, which are caused by the higher growth rate of demand and consumption than supply and production, have made the need for planning to solve energy problems more evident than ever before. Undoubtedly, the continuation of the increasing trend of energy imbalances in the country's key carriers will cause economic, social and security effects and consequences. On the other hand, according to economic theories, trade liberalization increases efficiency, economies of scale, improves competition, improves the productivity of production factors and increases trade flows, and ultimately leads to economic growth. On the other hand, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has great capacities in the energy sector (with about a quarter of the world's population, it controls 23% of oil, 55% of natural gas and 35% of the world's coal). Undoubtedly, the accession of observer countries, especially Iran, will increase the potential and capacities of this organization. Therefore, in this study, the impact of trade tariff reduction between Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the balance of various energy types in Iran was scenario-based.
Method
No study has analyzed the impact of trade liberalization policy between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member countries on the energy balance in Iran, and this study addresses this issue by using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Also, among the computable general equilibrium models, the multi-regional general equilibrium model is specifically designed for analyzing world trade and can conduct research and studies on the international flow of goods and services and factors of production in a dynamic and static manner. Using a multi-regional general equilibrium model instead of a single-regional general equilibrium model has several advantages. One of the strengths of these models is their ability to help understand the relationship between sectors, countries, and factors of production on a global scale. Among the multi-regional general equilibrium models, the Energy-Based World Trade Analysis Project model provides diverse possibilities for world trade and energy-related research.
This study examines the impact of reducing trade tariffs between Iran and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization under scenarios of -25%, -50% and -100% on the balance of various energy sources in Iran, including crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, coal and electricity. For this purpose, the necessary data were extracted from the Global Trade Analysis Project for Energy-Based (GTAP-E) version 10 database, which includes the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 141 countries or regions and 65 sectors. Finally, the data were analyzed using MATLAB software.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that reducing trade tariffs between Iran and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, on the one hand, due to the ease of exporting energy carriers (especially crude oil and petroleum products) and on the other hand, due to the increased use of fossil energy exploration, production, and distribution technologies (especially crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, and coal), leads to a decrease in fossil energy consumption and an increase in the net balance of fossil energy in Iran. In addition, the reduction of trade tariffs between Iran and other member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, due to the possibility of increasing imports of goods and equipment that consume less energy needed in various domestic, industrial (light and heavy industries), transportation and agricultural sectors (tractors, combines, etc.), as well as increasing cooperation in the development of renewable energy technologies, will lead to an increase in the consumption of renewable energies and a decrease in the consumption of the energy carriers under consideration (especially electricity), and ultimately an increase in their net energy balance in Iran.
Ali Moridian, Hassan Heidari, Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, Heshmatollah Asgari,
Volume 16, Issue 60 (9-2026)
Abstract
Objective: This study examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty, exchange rate, and oil price on inflation in Iran during the period 2008 to 2023. The main objective is to identify the short-term, medium-term, and long-term nature of these effects and analyze inflation dynamics using modern wavelet and machine learning methods.
Materials and Methods: Regularized least squares regression with wavelet kernel (WKRLS) and nonparametric wavelet quantile causality (WNQC) are used to analyze nonlinear and scale-dependent relationships between variables. The data include inflation index, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), unofficial exchange rate, and oil price on a monthly basis. The generalized wavelet quantile Dickey-Fuller test (Wavelet-QADF) is also used to examine the stationarity of time series.
Results: The results show that key variables of the Iranian economy are stationary in most quantiles and time scales. According to WKRLS estimates, the effect of economic policy uncertainty on inflation is weak in the short run, decreasing but still significant in the medium run, and increasing non-linearly and acceleratingly in the long run. The exchange rate has the greatest impact on inflation, especially in the short run due to the Iranian economy’s heavy dependence on imports. Oil prices also have a significant impact on inflation and its volatility in the long run. WNQC findings show that economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate uncertainty have a stronger effect in the low and middle quantiles of inflation, while oil prices mainly amplify inflation fluctuations in the long run.
Conclusion: The findings emphasize the importance of stable economic policies, reducing dependence on oil revenues, and controlling exchange rate fluctuations for managing inflation in Iran. Also, combining wavelet and machine learning methods allows for a more comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics in different conditions.
