Showing 33 results for Growth
Hassan Daliri,
Volume 11, Issue 39 (3-2020)
Abstract
This study examines the Kuznets environmental curve among D8 countries in the period 1961–2016. The Kuznets environmental curve shows the reversed U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. In this paper, two methods of time series estimation and smooth panel transition estimation were used to test the hypothesis of this relationship. Also, the ecological footprint index was used as an indicator of environmental degradation. The time series estimation results show that there is a nonlinear relationship in all D8 countries but the classical Kuznets hypothesis was confirmed only in Malaysia, Egypt and Turkey and in other countries the relationship was not inverted U. In Iran, the relationship between GDP per capita and the per capita ecological footprint is N-shaped, and at the GDP levels of $5864 and $10514, the relationship between the two variables will change. On the other hand, testing of the Kuznets hypothesis by using panel smooth transition models showed that there was a nonlinear relationship between GDP and ecological footprint in D8 countries with a threshold. There was a direct relationship between ecological footprint and GDP per capita when economic growth below 8.3 percent and reverse relationship when economic growth above 8.3 percent
Jafar Zhilaei Aghdam, Ali Reza Daghighiasli, Marjan Daman Kashide, Ali Asmailpor Magari,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
The relationship between external debt and economic growth is one of the important issues in macroeconomics literature and has been considered in empirical studies. So, in this paper the long-run relationship among external government debt and economic growth in 58 selected developing countries for 1985-2018 by applying a pool mean group method which is suggested by Pesaran & Smith. The main empirical results showed that there is a long-run relationship between external debt and economic growth. Also, increase in growth in selected countries in addition to the influence of produce factors, labor, capital stock and monetary policy, influence of public debt. Also, capital stock, open economic, financial balance and saving variables has positive effect and population growth and Government revenue has negative effect on economic growth.
Hassan Dargahi, Mojtaba Ghasemi, Sajjad Fatollahi,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
This study investigates the relation between bounced checks and economic growth through the banking credit risk channel by estimation of a simultaneous equation system with panel data for 31 Iranian provinces covers the years from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, after identifying determinants of the bounced checks, the relations of this variable with the non-performing loans, banking loans and economic growth are evaluated. The results confirm the positive relationship between the bounced checks to GDP ratio and the prices index, whereas the impacts of output deviation from trend and the index of enforcement of laws on the bounced checks are negative. In times of stagflation, with the decreasing possibility of defaults, the bounced checks tend to grow. Also, with the development of legal and judicial system in the country with a view to boosting institutional and governance quality, the number of bounced checks decreases on the scale of economic activities. On the other hand, the number of bounced checks after fixing the control variables will lead to an increase of non-performing loans and the bank credit risk. Meanwhile the impact of bank loans on economic growth through the productivity channel is meaningful and positive. Therefore, in the Iranian economy the increase of bounced checks through the channel of bank loaning power will have a negative influence on economic growth.
Abed Abbasidarkhaneh, Farid Askari, Abdolrahim Hashemi Dizaj,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
In this study, using linear and nonlinear Granger causality methods and regression switching, the relationships between the returns of important industry indices in the period 2008 to 2019 in order to invest in economic growth and development were examined. Based on the results obtained in the two periods of 2008 to 2013 and 2018 to 2019: 6, the relationship between the returns of the studied industry index has reached the highest value. In the linear Granger causality approach based on centrality criteria, the returns of metals index, machinery and investment are the most important and the returns of communication and banking index are the least important. It can also be said that the degree of effectiveness and efficiency of industry index returns is well affected by the amount of stock market fluctuations and this importance is asymmetric. In the nonlinear Granger causality approach based on the centrality criterion, the communication sector is the least important and the basic metals, chemical and machinery industries are the most important. In the period 2018 to 2019, the banking sector, automotive and communications industries are the most important and oil and metal products are the least important for investment.
Dr. Mohammad Hassanzadeh, Mrs Mina Barghinejad,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)
Abstract
Government investment and public debt are two important tools of financial policy affecting macroeconomic performance, which can be considered as one of the few remaining policy instruments to support growth. In the current study, the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR) has been used to identify the threshold levels of government investment and public debt in 23 oil exporting countries during 2000 to 2021. Considering investment and public debt in separate models as transmission variables, the estimated results indicate the existence of a two-regime non-linear relationship. The estimation results show that in this group of countries, the positive effects of government investment on economic growth increase with the increase in the level of investment. During the first regime, public debt has a negative effect on economic growth. If public debt surpasses the threshold level, its negative impact on economic growth decreases.
Mr Abdolah Afshari, Mr Teimour Mohammadi, Mr Farhad Ghaffari,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
This research investigated the effects of oil revenue decreases as a non-linear model based on Threshold Vector auto-regression(TVAR), with an emphasis on Iran’s sanctions during the period of 2003–2021 with seasonal data. Real oil revenue growth was selected as a threshold variable; during the two regimes, the threshold was selected as -0. 021 for oil revenues, and by the generalized impulse response functions(GIRF), the effects of oil revenue increases on economic growth were investigated. Results revealed that shocks of oil revenue in upward and downward regimes had different effects on economic growth rates. The effects of shocks of oil revenue on economic growth in a downward regime were positive until the second period, and after that, they decreased, and after the sixth period, the economic growth was negative. And in the upward regime, it was positive, and after the first period, it decreased at a lower rate than in the downward regime and finally tended to zero. Finally, it can be concluded that the effects of oil revenue decreases on economic growth rate were more in the downward regime than upward, revealing that sanctions and decreases of oil revenue have a great impact on reductions of production and economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended that the government, by implementing true politics and economic programs in line with the reduction of sanctions, reduce the sanctions' effects on production and economic growth.
Hayedeh Nourozi, Rouhollah Shahnazi, Ebrahim Hadian, Zakaria Farajzadeh,
Volume 14, Issue 53 (12-2023)
Abstract
Economy and environment are two interdependent systems; In recent decades, the global environment, as the most important global public good, has been heavily influenced by the negative external effects of economic growth, including climate change. In order to internalize these external effects, the use of tracking tax is a recommended method. One of the most important models designed for the integrated study of economy and climate is the Nordhaus RICE model; Of course, with the limitation that in this economic growth model, it is included exogenously. In this study, the aim of endogenizing the economic growth of the RICE model and determining the tax rate in 6 scenarios including 1) the base scenario 2) the optimal emission control rate application scenario 3) the 2°C temperature limit scenario 4) the discounted Stern scenario 5) the calibrated Stern scenario and 6) Copenhagen scenario. The results show that in the endogenous growth model, the ratio of taxes to net domestic production and CO2 emissions should increase over time. In all scenarios of Iran's endogenous growth model (except the base scenario), tax increases between 2022 and 2122 will reduce industrial CO2 emissions and reduce atmospheric carbon concentration. Finally, by applying the specified optimal tax in all scenarios, temperature changes have increased by less than two degrees Celsius.
Mahdi Arab, Mohsen Zayanderoody, Abd-Al-Majid Jalaee,
Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2024)
Abstract
Agbarakwe, U. H., & Okpe, E. A. (2024). An Analytical Inquiry into the Impact of International Trade on Poverty Reduction in Nigeria. South Asian Research Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 6(1), 40-55.
Asongu, S. A., & Eita, J. H. (2023). The conditional influence of poverty, inequality, and severity of poverty on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Applied Social Science, 17(3), 372-384.
Atrkar Roshan, S., & Hashemi, Z. (2016). The Impact of Trade Openness on Poverty in Iran: Simultaneous Equations System Method. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 3(1), 183-204. (in Persian)
Balasubramanian, P., Burchi, F., & Malerba, D. (2023). Does economic growth reduce multidimensional poverty? Evidence from low-and middle-income countries. World Development, 161, 106119.
Cao, Y., Tabasam, A. H., Ahtsham Ali, S., Ashiq, A., Ramos-Meza, C. S., Jain, V., & Shahzad Shabbir, M. (2023). The dynamic role of sustainable development goals to eradicate the multidimensional poverty: evidence from emerging economy. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 36(3).
Chatziantoniou, I, Duffy. D, Filis, G. (2013). Stock Market Response to Monetary and Fiscal Policy Shocks: Multi-country evidence. Economic Modelling, 30, 454–769.
D’Attoma, I., & Matteucci, M. (2024). Multidimensional poverty: an analysis of definitions, measurement tools, applications and their evolution over time through a systematic review of the literature up to 2019. Quality & Quantity, 58(4), 3171-3213.
Deaton, A. (2005). Measuring poverty in a growing world (or measuring growth in a poor world). The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, 87(1), 1–19.
Hosseinidoust, S. E., Sepehrdoost, H., & Moradi, F. (2024). Investigating the Affecting Factors on Capability Poverty in the Selected Islamic Countries Emphasizing on Globalization and Economic Growth. Economic Growth and Development Research, 14(56), -. (in Persian)
Ilyas, A., Banaras, A., Javaid, Z., & Rahman, S. U. (2023). Effect of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Openness on the Poverty Alleviation in Burundi–Sub African Country: ARDL (Co-integration) Approach. Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 11(1), 555-565.
Imam, M. F., Islam, M. A., & Hossain, M. J. (2018). Factors affecting poverty in rural Bangladesh: an analysis using multilevel modelling. Journal of the Bangladesh Agricultural University, 16(1), 123-130.
Iranmanesh, S. (2023). Analyzing the Role of Poverty in Financial Development in Selected Countries. Bi-quarterly Journal of development economics and planning, 10(1), 177-196. (in Persian)
Liu, M., Feng, X., Zhao, Y., & Qiu, H. (2023). Impact of poverty alleviation through relocation: From the perspectives of income and multidimensional poverty. Journal of Rural Studies, 99, 35-44.
Lundberg, L., & Squire, L. (2000). Inequality and growth; Lessons for policy. Mimeo, World Bank, Washington, D. C.
Mekonnen, A. G. (2024). Estimating multidimensional poverty: A new methodological approach. Journal of Poverty, 1-19
Motaghi, S., Gholami, R., Talei, S., & Ebrahimi, S. (2023). An Analysis of Regional Poverty and Factors Affecting it in Developed and Developing Countries. Journal of economics and regional development, 30(25), 39-66. (in Persian)
Nguyen, T. T., Hoang, V. N., Wilson, C., & Managi, S. (2019). Energy transition, poverty and inequality in Vietnam. Energy Policy, 132, 536-548.
Nurlina, N., Ridha, A., Syahputra, R., & Muda, I. (2024). Impact of selected macroeconomic on poverty alleviation in Indonesia: Evidence from NARDL approach. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(8), 5166.
Saddique, R., Zeng, W., Zhao, P., & Awan, A. (2023). Understanding multidimensional poverty in pakistan: implications for regional and demographic-specific policies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-16.
Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody, M., Javdan, E., & Shemshadi, K. (2024). Spatial Distribution of Poverty, Food Insecurity and Factors Affecting it in Urban Areas of Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, (), -. (in Persian)
Tasan, M., Piraee, K., Nonejad, M., & Abdoshahi, A. (2021). The Effect of Economic Openness on Improving the Life of the Poor in Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 13(1), 123-146. (in Persian)
Yan, J., Işık, C., & Gu, X. (2024). The nexus between natural resource development, trade policy uncertainty, financial technology and poverty in China: Contributing to the realization of SDG 1. Resources Policy, 95, 105154.
Mrs Farzaneh Vafadar, Dr Ghodratollah Emamverdi, Dr Abolfazl Ghiasvand, Dr Marjan Damankeshideh,
Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2024)
Abstract
Due to the wide trade relationship between the countries of the world and the economic dependence of the countries on the global economy, the boom or record in the great economic powers of the world will quickly affect the economy of other countries.
In recent years, China has become one of the largest economic powers in the world and has been one of Iran's main trading partners for many years and is one of the countries that can have the greatest impact on Iran's economy.
On the other hand, due to the tightening of international sanctions on Iran in recent years, many measures have been taken to expand trade relations with other countries and attract foreign capital, among which the role of China as the main trading partner of Iran is prominent and it is necessary to reduce the shocks caused by To know the changes in China's economic growth and their effect on the macroeconomic indicators of the country.
Accordingly, the present study examines the effect of China's economic growth shocks on Iran's real GDP, inflation rate, and non-oil exports. In this regard, (GVAR) model and seasonal data from 1992 to 2022 for 34 major trading partner countries of Iran have been used.
The results of the study showed that the effect of a positive shock in China's real GDP on Iran's real GDP is positive in the short term, but in the long term, the said shock is negative and in the direction of its reduction. In relation to inflation, the effect of a positive shock to China's real production on Iran's inflation rate has always been positive and negative on Iran's non-oil exports.
Dc Azam Ahmadyan, Dr Reza Akbarian,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
| Today, the importance of the effectiveness of economic growth on inflation is not hidden from anyone. The literature expresses different views about the effect of inflation on economic growth. Some studies have emphasized the existence of a positive relationship, some studies have emphasized the existence of a negative relationship, and some have considered the effect of inflation on economic growth to be neutral. In recent decades, Iranian economy has faced inflationary conditions that can affect economic growth. Macroeconomics uncertainties can also intensify the negative effect of inflation on economic growth. Considering the importance of the issue, in this article, the vulnerability of economic growth to inflation in the conditions of macroeconomic uncertainties is investigated. For this purpose, using time series data during 1370-1401, the dynamics of the effect of inflation on economic growth has been investigated, using the autoregression method with a distribution with an interval. Since inflation at different levels and thresholds can have a different effect on economic growth, the threshold effect of inflation has been investigated using the threshold regression method. Considering the different effect of inflation in macroeconomic uncertainty, the effect of inflation at the level and threshold on economic growth has been investigated once considering macroeconomic uncertainty and another time without considering macroeconomic uncertainty. E-GARCH method has been used to extract macroeconomic uncertainty. In the models examined in the article, uncertainty of exchange rate, uncertainty of liquidity and uncertainty of stock price index were considered. The findings indicate, inflation at the level without macroeconomic uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth, but taking macroeconomic uncertainty into account, inflation at the level has a negative effect on economic growth. Also, considering macroeconomic uncertainty indicates that the negative effect of inflation on economic growth is intensified. |
, Ali Fegheh Majidid, Ali Fegheh Majidid,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Poverty has become one of the major global challenges faced by most Asian countries. Although they have been able to achieve technology and increase productivity in the fields of production in recent decades, a high percentage of their society still lives in poverty. The current concern about the increase in chronic poverty in many countries of the developing world requires a deeper understanding not only of the number of poor people, but also of the nature of poverty. This issue has a widespread and devastating impact on the lives of millions of people around the world and is important because its effects go beyond the economic sphere and extend to the social, political and cultural spheres. Poverty reduction is one of the fundamental economic and social challenges in global societies. Therefore, it is very important to examine the factors affecting poverty reduction One of the ways to reduce poverty is the existence of institutional foundations and institutions. Since the second half of the twentieth century, numerous studies have been conducted on the role of institutional and political approaches in poverty reduction. According to these studies, the existence of strong institutions and institutions attracts investment, improves technology and employment, and consequently increases production and economic growth. Therefore, the existence of institutions is the main factor in the growth and development of countries. The existence of institutions and institutions can explain the differences in welfare, growth and development and economic well-being between countries. By creating a stable structure in the economy and society, institutions reduce risk and uncertainty, and thus reduce transaction costs. In short, understanding the interaction between institutional factors, spatial dynamics and poverty reduction is essential for designing effective policies and interventions. The aim of this study is to answer the question of how institutional factors and economic growth can reduce poverty in selected Asian countries?
Method
In this research, the research method is of the spatial analytical and econometric type. The data of this study were collected from the World Bank and the Macro Trends website. In estimating the spatial panel data model, it is necessary to mention a few points. First, the spatial effects in the calculations are factors that are related to the location of the variables. The first factor is the spatial dependence or autocorrelation between the observations of the sample data at different points and the second factor is the spatial structure or heterogeneity created by the model relations for moving on the plane. The coordinates change with the sample data. To detect the spatiality of the data, it is necessary to perform spatial detection tests. In this research, a weight matrix was formed for countries that have geographical connections. The weight matrix is of the adjacency type. The adjacency or neighborhood matrix was formed for the 15 countries studied. In this way, the value of one is considered for neighboring or neighboring countries and the value of zero for non-adjacent countries. Therefore, the adjacency matrix is a symmetric 15x15 matrix with a main diameter of zero and elements outside the main diameter of zero and one. Stata software is used to estimate the model. In panel data with spatial characteristics, fixed and random effects can be considered for the model and the best model was selected from SAR, SDM, SAC, SEM and GSPRE models using the spatial Hausman test, of which the spatial autocorrelation (SAC) model was selected.
Conclusion
Based on the spatial effect of the disturbance components or dependent variables, the results of the spatial autocorrelation model (SAC) show that economic growth and the quality of institutional factors have a positive effect on poverty reduction. Also, increasing domestic investment also helps to reduce poverty. The spatial effects of poverty show that increasing poverty in a country can also cause poverty in neighboring countries. In general, economic growth can increase welfare and create new opportunities. Policies that support economic growth, such as financial development and economic stability, provide a favorable environment for poor households to increase their production and income. The research results show that institutional development and better quality of institutions (such as corruption control, government stability and democracy) have a positive effect on poverty reduction. Better institutional quality improves resource distribution and poverty reduction in the long run. Strong and reliable institutions can increase investment attraction and facilitate international trade. It also confirms the positive effect of domestic investment on poverty reduction. Increased investment increases production, income and welfare and reduces unemployment. Spillover effects of domestic investment can facilitate the transfer of knowledge and technology.
Mis Farzaneh Hassanitavabe, Doctor Reza Roshan, Doctor Abdolkarim Hosseinpoor,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
The economic growth rate indicates changes in the level of economic activity and a country's ability to produce goods and services, which can be used as a measure to evaluate a country's economic performance and compare it with other countries. In the case of financial development, the ratio of financial assets to non-financial assets increases, which can have an impact on increasing economic growth.The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of oil revenues on the economic growth of Persian Gulf countries with an emphasis on the financial development channel. The countries under study include: Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, and the research period was from 2003 to 2023. For this purpose, a two-regime threshold panel regression model was used. The findings show that the effect of oil revenues on economic growth through the financial development where the level of financial deepening is less than the threshold level channel is positive and significant for the first regime, So that before reaching the threshold, one percent in oil revenues increases economic growth by 9.87 percent. For the second regime, that the dependence financial development channel on oil revenues is higher than the threshold level. It is not meaningful. Also, the control variables of trade openness, gross investment, inflation, government consumption expenditure have had a positive and significant impact on the economic growth of the mentioned countries.
Mr Mostafa Gholami, Dr Zeinolabedin Sadeghi, Dr Seyyed Abdul Majid Jalaee Esfandabadi, Dr Mehdi Nejati,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
One of the most important goals of policymakers is to increase the rate of economic growth while keeping the environment clean, which is possible through the use of modern technologies and the influx of capital into the country. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important source for promoting energy-efficient technologies around the world. One of the most important issues in today's world, especially in developing countries, including Iran, is securing the necessary capital to advance economic and environmental goals. For this reason, the present study examines the effects of foreign direct investment on macroeconomic and environmental variables using a computable general equilibrium static model. Two scenarios have been analyzed and examined as the effects of a doubling of FDI, one on the electricity sector and the other on the entire economy. The results showed that in both scenarios, economic growth increased and the general level of prices decreased, but the effect was greater in the second scenario. Electricity production also increased in both scenarios. But household welfare has decreased with increasing foreign direct investment. In the carbon emission variable, the pollution halo hypothesis is confirmed in the first scenario, and the pollution haven hypothesis is confirmed in the second scenario. It is suggested that the government, in addition to providing domestic platforms for the entry of foreign capital, also pay due attention to domestic capital owners.
