Dr Reza Akbarian, Mr Farhad Zand, Dr Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri, Dr Hojat Parsa,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
Market economies rely on the payment system to facilitate trade and exchange between businesses and consumers in the product market. "Payment" is the transfer of monetary value. The ability to control monetary policy instruments is one of the challenges of monetary policy in Iran. The reduction of the central bank's control over the money supply and the implementation of monetary policy is due to the change that occurs in the monetary base and the monetary multiplier. The structure of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models, like other general equilibrium models, aims to describe the behavior of the entire economy and use decision interaction analysis. Wisdom is built on different levels.Due to the existence of sanctions and the lack of clear and correct information on the amount of sales of crude oil and other export items and petroleum products and unnecessary complications in doing the economics paper, it is considered closed, but if the correct information in can be considered as the expansion of the economy.The findings of this section indicate that the central bank's reaction to the growth rate of the total index of the real sector of the economy against the reaction to the deviation of the total index from its long-term equilibrium level can be more effective in reducing the real effects of the shocks of the real sector of the economy on macroeconomic variables. . Because the central bank controls the status of asset returns in other parallel markets such as currency, price levels, deposits and loans, and therefore the reaction to the emotional dynamics of the market return against the reaction to the market index level further guarantees macroeconomic stability.
English Habib Habib Shirafken Lamso, English Amir Gholami, English Seyyed Mehdi Ahmadi,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
This research aims to model the effective systematic risks of financial recovery in the insurance industry. This research is a type of applied research. The period of research is 11 years (1400-1390). For this purpose, the information on 14 systematic risks affecting the financial solvency of insurance companies was entered into dynamic, selective, and Bayesian averaging models. Based on the error rate, the Bayesian averaging model had the highest accuracy among the selected models. After estimating the model, 5 economic growth risks, inflation uncertainty, exchange rate, sanctions, and KOF index were selected; Also, based on the results of the TVPFAVAR model, it was assessed that the impact shock of the selected variables in the long-term period is stronger than the short-term period, which indicates that the elasticity of financial prosperity is greater than the changes in systematic risk variables compared to the short-term elasticity. Based on the results of economic growth and the KOF index, the positive effect and uncertainty variables of inflation, exchange rate, and sanctions hurt financial wealth in the general trend.
Dc Azam Ahmadyan,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
The disclosure of bank information is a requirement of the Basell Committee in global level, as well as regulations governing the disclosure of information by credit institutions in Iran. According to these regulations, banks are obligated to disclose financial information, risk management information, corporate governance and auditing information, and information related to significant events. This article examines the short-term and long-term effect of information disclosure on financial soundness of banks, with emphasis on the size and ownership of banks and using the PMG-ARDL model during 2014 - 2021. Results indicate an inverse U-shaped relationship between information disclosure and the financial soundness of banks. So an increase in information disclosure, the level of financial soundness of banks initially improves, but then decreases after reaching an optimal level. Additionally, there is a U-shaped relationship between information disclosure and the financial soundness of banks based on size. So an increase in disclosure and bank size, the financial soundness of banks initially decreases, but then increases after reaching a minimum point.
Alireza Moradi, Mehdi Mohammadi,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
The main goal of this research is the impact of the wage gap between managers and workers on stock returns: the mediating role of investors' supervision. In terms of categorizing the research according to the method of data collection, the current research is of the causal and post-event type. The research method is correlation. In this research, library methods were used to collect information. Library methods have been used to collect information on the theoretical foundations and literature of the topic, library resources, articles and required books have been used, and Kodal website and Rahavard Novin software have also been used to obtain statistical information. In this chapter, using data collected from a statistical sample of 76 companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2015-2022. Hypotheses were tested using Pearson's correlation test and Limer's F test in the Eviews13 software environment. The results of the regression test showed that the wage gap between managers and workers with the mediating role of investors' supervision has a significant effect on stock returns.
Mr Nader Hashemnezhad, Dr Sajjad Barkhordari, Dr Ghahreman Abdoli,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
Bitcoin is the leader of cryptocurrencies and has the largest market value as a digital asset in most international investment portfolios. However, compared to traditional assets, the nature of this cryptocurrency is not clear from a behavioral perspective. Examining this by following the behavior of the distribution tail or limit behaviors is one of the methods that can help researchers about the nature of this cryptocurrency, because this corresponds to the investigation of limit behaviors and in critical times of this currency. In this regard, this research has used quantile regression to estimate CAViaR models. In addition, to study the effect of each variable on the Bitcoin trend, the GARCH approach has also been used.
The results of this research for the daily period from 2018 June 26 to 2022 May 11, Wednesday, showed that by analyzing the 5% percentile quantile regression, examining the behavior of the right tail of Bitcoin distribution, the behavioral similarity of this currency with all the investigated assets is confirmed. This shows that in a situation where the returns of traditional financial markets are positive and the markets are rising, the behavior of cryptocurrencies aligns with the general behavior of the markets. However, examining the behavior of the left tail of the distribution of the variables shows that Bitcoin has no similarity in behavior with the rest of the traditional assets. In other words, when markets are bearish, Bitcoin's behavior is not aligned with traditional markets. However, the return of the homogenous index does not affect the trend of Bitcoin, which was predictable due to the non-compliance of domestic financial markets with international markets due to Iran's economic isolation and international sanctions. Therefore, until the period investigated by this study, Bitcoin has shown a behavior other than known assets and investing in it is still facing the risk of capital burnout, so it is recommended that investors observe risk management in the arrangement of their portfolios.
Majid Shafiei, Parviz Rostamzadeh, Mohammad Rastegar, Zahra Dehghan Shabani,
Volume 14, Issue 53 (11-2024)
Abstract
The stock market, as one of the vital components of the capital market, is an important part of the country's economy that can manage the flow of capital, optimize capital allocation, and thereby contribute to economic growth and development. More accurate prediction of the stock market trend can help investors' decision-making for higher returns by reducing risk. In general, the stock market is constantly changing and many factors influence the trend of this market, so predicting the patterns of movement in the stock exchange requires sufficient information about the past and influencing factors of the market. This article is part of the forecast of the stock market index of Iran, seeking to interpret the model and identify the most influential economic variable on the price index prediction. For this purpose, daily stock market and economic data, during the period 1394-1401 were used. Machine learning models are also used for prediction and the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret how to predict and determine the most important variables in the predictive model. Based on results from tree-based ensemble methods, the proposed model in this study, ExtraTrees, performed best based on predictive error criteria. In the study of the feature importance is also based on the ExtraTrees model, in order of the dollar rate (Nima), unemployment rate, dollar rate of market and liquidity, the most important economic variables influencing the forecast model. Also, according to other models used in the research, liquidity is the most effective variable on the stock index trend. Finally, it can be said that the most effective monetary variables on the stock market index in Iran are liquidity and exchange rate variables, so monetary policymakers and stock market investors should be more sensitive to these variables in their decisions.
