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Showing 24 results for Economic Growth
Mrs Farzaneh Vafadar, Dr Ghodratollah Emamverdi, Dr Abolfazl Ghiasvand, Dr Marjan Damankeshideh,
Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2024)
Abstract
Due to the wide trade relationship between the countries of the world and the economic dependence of the countries on the global economy, the boom or record in the great economic powers of the world will quickly affect the economy of other countries.
In recent years, China has become one of the largest economic powers in the world and has been one of Iran's main trading partners for many years and is one of the countries that can have the greatest impact on Iran's economy.
On the other hand, due to the tightening of international sanctions on Iran in recent years, many measures have been taken to expand trade relations with other countries and attract foreign capital, among which the role of China as the main trading partner of Iran is prominent and it is necessary to reduce the shocks caused by To know the changes in China's economic growth and their effect on the macroeconomic indicators of the country.
Accordingly, the present study examines the effect of China's economic growth shocks on Iran's real GDP, inflation rate, and non-oil exports. In this regard, (GVAR) model and seasonal data from 1992 to 2022 for 34 major trading partner countries of Iran have been used.
The results of the study showed that the effect of a positive shock in China's real GDP on Iran's real GDP is positive in the short term, but in the long term, the said shock is negative and in the direction of its reduction. In relation to inflation, the effect of a positive shock to China's real production on Iran's inflation rate has always been positive and negative on Iran's non-oil exports.
Dc Azam Ahmadyan, Dr Reza Akbarian,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
| Today, the importance of the effectiveness of economic growth on inflation is not hidden from anyone. The literature expresses different views about the effect of inflation on economic growth. Some studies have emphasized the existence of a positive relationship, some studies have emphasized the existence of a negative relationship, and some have considered the effect of inflation on economic growth to be neutral. In recent decades, Iranian economy has faced inflationary conditions that can affect economic growth. Macroeconomics uncertainties can also intensify the negative effect of inflation on economic growth. Considering the importance of the issue, in this article, the vulnerability of economic growth to inflation in the conditions of macroeconomic uncertainties is investigated. For this purpose, using time series data during 1370-1401, the dynamics of the effect of inflation on economic growth has been investigated, using the autoregression method with a distribution with an interval. Since inflation at different levels and thresholds can have a different effect on economic growth, the threshold effect of inflation has been investigated using the threshold regression method. Considering the different effect of inflation in macroeconomic uncertainty, the effect of inflation at the level and threshold on economic growth has been investigated once considering macroeconomic uncertainty and another time without considering macroeconomic uncertainty. E-GARCH method has been used to extract macroeconomic uncertainty. In the models examined in the article, uncertainty of exchange rate, uncertainty of liquidity and uncertainty of stock price index were considered. The findings indicate, inflation at the level without macroeconomic uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth, but taking macroeconomic uncertainty into account, inflation at the level has a negative effect on economic growth. Also, considering macroeconomic uncertainty indicates that the negative effect of inflation on economic growth is intensified. |
, Ali Fegheh Majidid, Ali Fegheh Majidid,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Poverty has become one of the major global challenges faced by most Asian countries. Although they have been able to achieve technology and increase productivity in the fields of production in recent decades, a high percentage of their society still lives in poverty. The current concern about the increase in chronic poverty in many countries of the developing world requires a deeper understanding not only of the number of poor people, but also of the nature of poverty. This issue has a widespread and devastating impact on the lives of millions of people around the world and is important because its effects go beyond the economic sphere and extend to the social, political and cultural spheres. Poverty reduction is one of the fundamental economic and social challenges in global societies. Therefore, it is very important to examine the factors affecting poverty reduction One of the ways to reduce poverty is the existence of institutional foundations and institutions. Since the second half of the twentieth century, numerous studies have been conducted on the role of institutional and political approaches in poverty reduction. According to these studies, the existence of strong institutions and institutions attracts investment, improves technology and employment, and consequently increases production and economic growth. Therefore, the existence of institutions is the main factor in the growth and development of countries. The existence of institutions and institutions can explain the differences in welfare, growth and development and economic well-being between countries. By creating a stable structure in the economy and society, institutions reduce risk and uncertainty, and thus reduce transaction costs. In short, understanding the interaction between institutional factors, spatial dynamics and poverty reduction is essential for designing effective policies and interventions. The aim of this study is to answer the question of how institutional factors and economic growth can reduce poverty in selected Asian countries?
Method
In this research, the research method is of the spatial analytical and econometric type. The data of this study were collected from the World Bank and the Macro Trends website. In estimating the spatial panel data model, it is necessary to mention a few points. First, the spatial effects in the calculations are factors that are related to the location of the variables. The first factor is the spatial dependence or autocorrelation between the observations of the sample data at different points and the second factor is the spatial structure or heterogeneity created by the model relations for moving on the plane. The coordinates change with the sample data. To detect the spatiality of the data, it is necessary to perform spatial detection tests. In this research, a weight matrix was formed for countries that have geographical connections. The weight matrix is of the adjacency type. The adjacency or neighborhood matrix was formed for the 15 countries studied. In this way, the value of one is considered for neighboring or neighboring countries and the value of zero for non-adjacent countries. Therefore, the adjacency matrix is a symmetric 15x15 matrix with a main diameter of zero and elements outside the main diameter of zero and one. Stata software is used to estimate the model. In panel data with spatial characteristics, fixed and random effects can be considered for the model and the best model was selected from SAR, SDM, SAC, SEM and GSPRE models using the spatial Hausman test, of which the spatial autocorrelation (SAC) model was selected.
Conclusion
Based on the spatial effect of the disturbance components or dependent variables, the results of the spatial autocorrelation model (SAC) show that economic growth and the quality of institutional factors have a positive effect on poverty reduction. Also, increasing domestic investment also helps to reduce poverty. The spatial effects of poverty show that increasing poverty in a country can also cause poverty in neighboring countries. In general, economic growth can increase welfare and create new opportunities. Policies that support economic growth, such as financial development and economic stability, provide a favorable environment for poor households to increase their production and income. The research results show that institutional development and better quality of institutions (such as corruption control, government stability and democracy) have a positive effect on poverty reduction. Better institutional quality improves resource distribution and poverty reduction in the long run. Strong and reliable institutions can increase investment attraction and facilitate international trade. It also confirms the positive effect of domestic investment on poverty reduction. Increased investment increases production, income and welfare and reduces unemployment. Spillover effects of domestic investment can facilitate the transfer of knowledge and technology.
Mr Mostafa Gholami, Dr Zeinolabedin Sadeghi, Dr Seyyed Abdul Majid Jalaee Esfandabadi, Dr Mehdi Nejati,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
One of the most important goals of policymakers is to increase the rate of economic growth while keeping the environment clean, which is possible through the use of modern technologies and the influx of capital into the country. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important source for promoting energy-efficient technologies around the world. One of the most important issues in today's world, especially in developing countries, including Iran, is securing the necessary capital to advance economic and environmental goals. For this reason, the present study examines the effects of foreign direct investment on macroeconomic and environmental variables using a computable general equilibrium static model. Two scenarios have been analyzed and examined as the effects of a doubling of FDI, one on the electricity sector and the other on the entire economy. The results showed that in both scenarios, economic growth increased and the general level of prices decreased, but the effect was greater in the second scenario. Electricity production also increased in both scenarios. But household welfare has decreased with increasing foreign direct investment. In the carbon emission variable, the pollution halo hypothesis is confirmed in the first scenario, and the pollution haven hypothesis is confirmed in the second scenario. It is suggested that the government, in addition to providing domestic platforms for the entry of foreign capital, also pay due attention to domestic capital owners.
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