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Showing 332 results for Type of Study: Applicable
Mrs Farzaneh Vafadar, Dr Ghodratollah Emamverdi, Dr Abolfazl Ghiasvand, Dr Marjan Damankeshideh,
Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 55 (5-2024)
Abstract
Due to the wide trade relationship between the countries of the world and the economic dependence of the countries on the global economy, the boom or record in the great economic powers of the world will quickly affect the economy of other countries.
In recent years, China has become one of the largest economic powers in the world and has been one of Iran's main trading partners for many years and is one of the countries that can have the greatest impact on Iran's economy.
On the other hand, due to the tightening of international sanctions on Iran in recent years, many measures have been taken to expand trade relations with other countries and attract foreign capital, among which the role of China as the main trading partner of Iran is prominent and it is necessary to reduce the shocks caused by To know the changes in China's economic growth and their effect on the macroeconomic indicators of the country.
Accordingly, the present study examines the effect of China's economic growth shocks on Iran's real GDP, inflation rate, and non-oil exports. In this regard, (GVAR) model and seasonal data from 1992 to 2022 for 34 major trading partner countries of Iran have been used.
The results of the study showed that the effect of a positive shock in China's real GDP on Iran's real GDP is positive in the short term, but in the long term, the said shock is negative and in the direction of its reduction. In relation to inflation, the effect of a positive shock to China's real production on Iran's inflation rate has always been positive and negative on Iran's non-oil exports.
Dr. Elham Vafaei, Mr. Mohammad Rezvani, Dr. Mahdi Pendar,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
Due to the position of meat products in the food pyramid and its importance in maintaining people's health and that economic sanctions can have a significant effect on meat consumption through the channel of increasing production costs and increasing the price of meat, the purpose of this research is to investigate the existence of failure There is a structure in the preferences of the meat consumption basket of urban households using the parametric approach and the switching regression framework developed by Ohtani and Katayama (1986) in the period of 2001-2013. The results show a structural failure (change) in preferences suddenly in 2017 and after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. The results show that after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, the price of chicken meat has decreased and the price of fish has increased, so that chicken meat has changed from an attractive product to an inelastic product. This result shows that consumers have become dependent on chicken meat and are willing to pay more to buy it. In such a situation, it is important to have adequate and optimal monitoring of the price of chicken meat, because people are forced to pay any price for chicken meat, and the changes of this product can cause the consumption basket of urban households to fluctuate greatly. Also, the estimation of income elasticity shows that chicken meat has changed from a necessary commodity to a luxury commodity after the sanctions. Therefore, to support consumers, it will be the right decision to use income tools and policies that lead to increasing the liquidity of urban households.
Dc Azam Ahmadyan, Dr Reza Akbarian,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
| Today, the importance of the effectiveness of economic growth on inflation is not hidden from anyone. The literature expresses different views about the effect of inflation on economic growth. Some studies have emphasized the existence of a positive relationship, some studies have emphasized the existence of a negative relationship, and some have considered the effect of inflation on economic growth to be neutral. In recent decades, Iranian economy has faced inflationary conditions that can affect economic growth. Macroeconomics uncertainties can also intensify the negative effect of inflation on economic growth. Considering the importance of the issue, in this article, the vulnerability of economic growth to inflation in the conditions of macroeconomic uncertainties is investigated. For this purpose, using time series data during 1370-1401, the dynamics of the effect of inflation on economic growth has been investigated, using the autoregression method with a distribution with an interval. Since inflation at different levels and thresholds can have a different effect on economic growth, the threshold effect of inflation has been investigated using the threshold regression method. Considering the different effect of inflation in macroeconomic uncertainty, the effect of inflation at the level and threshold on economic growth has been investigated once considering macroeconomic uncertainty and another time without considering macroeconomic uncertainty. E-GARCH method has been used to extract macroeconomic uncertainty. In the models examined in the article, uncertainty of exchange rate, uncertainty of liquidity and uncertainty of stock price index were considered. The findings indicate, inflation at the level without macroeconomic uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth, but taking macroeconomic uncertainty into account, inflation at the level has a negative effect on economic growth. Also, considering macroeconomic uncertainty indicates that the negative effect of inflation on economic growth is intensified. |
Abbas Khandan, Peyman Ghasri,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
Sustainability of pension funds indicating the balance between contributions and pension expenses, is one of the fundamental principles governing social security systems. Among the things that affect the contributions and pension expenses of the Iran’s Social Security Organization (ISSO)’s fund is the minimum wage which according to Article 41 of Iran’s labor and social security laws, is determined annually by the Iran’s supreme labor council and, every year, becomes a controversial and disputed issue between labor :union:s, employers and the public authorities. An increase in minimum wage have effects on both the received contributions and pension expenses and, as a result, its final effect on the cash balance of ISSO’s fund has been arguable. Considering the issue importance, this paper studies the effect of an increase in minimum wage on ISSO’s contributions, pension expenses and its cash balance during 1961 to 2022 using an econometric time series model of autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL). The results show that a 10% increase in the minimum wage will increase ISSO’s contributions by 25.6% and its pension expenses by 23%. Therefore, comparing the effects, it can be stated that the ISSO’s cash balance would be increased by 2.6% as a results of a 10% increase in minimum wage. To test the result, one more time, the association between an increase in minimum wage and the ISSO’s excess resources was investigated separately. The results once again confirm that the ISSO cash balance would be improved by 3.3% in association with a 10% increase in minimum wage. In this study, it was also shown that the population of contributors, the population of pensioners, the population support ratio, GDP and dummy variables of sanction and Iran-Iraq war have been influential as well.
Ebrahim Ghaed, Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri, Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi, Narges Salehnia,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to predicting the effects of fiscal policies on greenhouse emissions in Iran from 1991 to 2021. To achieve this, bayesian model averaging (BMA) and Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) approaches were employed. The results indicate that out of 14 fiscal policy variables, the top five models with the highest posterior probabilities were identified using the aforementioned methods. The most effective models included variables such as financial asset acquisitions, oil revenues, corporate taxes, wealth taxes, current expenditures, and other revenues. Subsequently, the impact of these variables on CO2 emissions was analyzed over 10 periods using the BVAR method. The impulse response function results revealed that shocks to the financial asset acquisitions, oil revenues, wealth taxes, current expenditures, and other revenues had positive effects on CO2 emissions, with the most significant impact stemming from shocks to financial asset acquisitions. Conversely, only shocks to the corporate taxes demonstrated a negative effect. Additionally, the variance decomposition of CO2 emission forecast errors indicated that the oil revenues and wealth taxes played the most significant roles in explaining forecast errors, with their contributions increasing during intermediate periods.
Mr Seyed Mojtaba Frozan, Dr Amir Gholami, Dr Seyed Mohammad Mehdi Ahmadi,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract
Creating the necessary conditions for growth and development is one of the goals of any economic system, which requires the application of correct economic policies, the identification and application of the components that affect growth, and as a result, the establishment of economic stability that leads to economic development and maintaining interests. It becomes national. Therefore, in order to achieve economic growth and to be on the path of economic development, it is necessary to consider the factors affecting economic growth. Among them, we can point out the control of inflation (growth of liquidity) and the reduction of income inequality. In this regard, examining the impact of monetary policies on these variables (stability, liquidity and inequality) can be effective and useful. Monetary policies are among the most important macroeconomic policies, which are among the main duties of central banks. Therefore, in this research, we investigate the influence of central bank independence on liquidity growth, unequal distribution of income and economic stability using time series data from 1981 to 2014. In the upcoming study, three sections were considered. The first part is the relationship between central bank independence and liquidity growth, the second part is the relationship between central bank independence and income distribution, and the third part is the relationship between central bank independence and economic stability. In each section, the influence of the economic indicators of the central bank's independence on the desired dependent variables was also examined. The calculated index for central bank independence in this study is a composite index. The results of the hypotheses test showed that the independence of the central bank has a positive and significant relationship with the growth of liquidity in Iran and a negative and significant relationship with the unequal distribution of income during the period under review and finally a positive and significant relationship with economic stability in Iran.
, Ali Fegheh Majidid, Ali Fegheh Majidid,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
Introduction
Poverty has become one of the major global challenges faced by most Asian countries. Although they have been able to achieve technology and increase productivity in the fields of production in recent decades, a high percentage of their society still lives in poverty. The current concern about the increase in chronic poverty in many countries of the developing world requires a deeper understanding not only of the number of poor people, but also of the nature of poverty. This issue has a widespread and devastating impact on the lives of millions of people around the world and is important because its effects go beyond the economic sphere and extend to the social, political and cultural spheres. Poverty reduction is one of the fundamental economic and social challenges in global societies. Therefore, it is very important to examine the factors affecting poverty reduction One of the ways to reduce poverty is the existence of institutional foundations and institutions. Since the second half of the twentieth century, numerous studies have been conducted on the role of institutional and political approaches in poverty reduction. According to these studies, the existence of strong institutions and institutions attracts investment, improves technology and employment, and consequently increases production and economic growth. Therefore, the existence of institutions is the main factor in the growth and development of countries. The existence of institutions and institutions can explain the differences in welfare, growth and development and economic well-being between countries. By creating a stable structure in the economy and society, institutions reduce risk and uncertainty, and thus reduce transaction costs. In short, understanding the interaction between institutional factors, spatial dynamics and poverty reduction is essential for designing effective policies and interventions. The aim of this study is to answer the question of how institutional factors and economic growth can reduce poverty in selected Asian countries?
Method
In this research, the research method is of the spatial analytical and econometric type. The data of this study were collected from the World Bank and the Macro Trends website. In estimating the spatial panel data model, it is necessary to mention a few points. First, the spatial effects in the calculations are factors that are related to the location of the variables. The first factor is the spatial dependence or autocorrelation between the observations of the sample data at different points and the second factor is the spatial structure or heterogeneity created by the model relations for moving on the plane. The coordinates change with the sample data. To detect the spatiality of the data, it is necessary to perform spatial detection tests. In this research, a weight matrix was formed for countries that have geographical connections. The weight matrix is of the adjacency type. The adjacency or neighborhood matrix was formed for the 15 countries studied. In this way, the value of one is considered for neighboring or neighboring countries and the value of zero for non-adjacent countries. Therefore, the adjacency matrix is a symmetric 15x15 matrix with a main diameter of zero and elements outside the main diameter of zero and one. Stata software is used to estimate the model. In panel data with spatial characteristics, fixed and random effects can be considered for the model and the best model was selected from SAR, SDM, SAC, SEM and GSPRE models using the spatial Hausman test, of which the spatial autocorrelation (SAC) model was selected.
Conclusion
Based on the spatial effect of the disturbance components or dependent variables, the results of the spatial autocorrelation model (SAC) show that economic growth and the quality of institutional factors have a positive effect on poverty reduction. Also, increasing domestic investment also helps to reduce poverty. The spatial effects of poverty show that increasing poverty in a country can also cause poverty in neighboring countries. In general, economic growth can increase welfare and create new opportunities. Policies that support economic growth, such as financial development and economic stability, provide a favorable environment for poor households to increase their production and income. The research results show that institutional development and better quality of institutions (such as corruption control, government stability and democracy) have a positive effect on poverty reduction. Better institutional quality improves resource distribution and poverty reduction in the long run. Strong and reliable institutions can increase investment attraction and facilitate international trade. It also confirms the positive effect of domestic investment on poverty reduction. Increased investment increases production, income and welfare and reduces unemployment. Spillover effects of domestic investment can facilitate the transfer of knowledge and technology.
Saeed Kianpoor, Reza Shamsollahi, Jafar Zarin,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
Objective: The aim of this research is to investigate the dynamic and nonlinear dependence between housing market fluctuations and the returns of construction companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange.
Materials and Methods: The data used include construction service returns, land price returns, inflation, exchange rate returns, stock index returns, industrial production returns, and rental returns in the period 1991 to 2023 using T-GARCH, Copula-GARCH, and DCC-GARCH.
Results: The results indicate the existence of strong and nonlinear dependencies between the returns of construction services and housing market variables, especially the returns of land prices and rents. The T-GARCH model showed a high fit (R-squared=0.969) and confirmed that past shocks have a significant impact on current fluctuations. The Copula-GARCH model confirmed the nonlinear dependencies with an average correlation coefficient of 0.31, while the rolling correlation analysis in the DCC-GARCH model indicated dynamic changes in dependencies in different economic periods. The Kendall-Tao correlations in boom (0.928) and recession (0.923) periods also showed a small but significant difference in the intensity of dependencies. The sensitivity analysis showed that changes in industrial production have a significant impact on the returns of construction services.Conclusion: These findings are useful for investors and policymakers in risk management and setting economic policies in the Iranian housing market. |
Dr Mahboobeh Khadem Nematollahi, Dr Teymour Mohammadi, Dr Abbas Shakeri, Dr Ali Asghar Salem,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
The aim of this paper was to estimate the effects of unconventional monetary policy shocks using Narrative sign restrictions method as a novel method, imposing sign restriction on the impulse responses of real interest rate, GDP, GDP price deflator, nonborrowed reserves as well as Total Reserves in response to monetary policy shocks in Iran. Using Narrative sign restrictions model for the period 1983-2020 enables considering the effects of aforementioned five variables as well as identifying the effect of monetary policy shocks on these variables. Narrative sign restrictions constrain signs based on narrative information. According to the liquidity effect, results of the impulse responses function highlights decreasing real interest rate causes increasing in aggregate demand and GDP. With Narrative sign restrictions, real interest rate shocks also have significant impact on GDP through increasing it. To this aim, according to results and also with regard to the importance of unconventional monetary policy in response to crisis, this policy can be applied for resolving stagflation and this supplement policy can be applied besides other policies of Central Bank.
Mrs Shadi Alizadeh, Dr Parvaneh Salatin, Dr Fatemeh Zandi, Dr Shahriar Nasabian,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
Food security, as an indicator of macroeconomic stability, is the fundamental foundation of countries' economic security and one of the most important prerequisites for sustainable development.
On the other hand, food production and distribution are energy-intensive, and energy is essential for achieving food security.
In this regard, the main objective of this study is to examine the impact of energy security on food security in a selected group of Middle Eastern countries. The results using spatial econometrics in the period 2000-2023 showed that access to electricity as an indicator of energy security has a positive and significant impact on food security in the selected group of Middle Eastern countries. With a one percent increase in access to electricity, on average, assuming other conditions are constant, food security increased by 0.1384 units in the selected group of Middle Eastern countries. The direct and indirect effects of energy are also positive, meaning that increased access to electricity has not only improved food security in the selected group of Middle Eastern countries, but its spillover effects have also moderately improved food security in neighboring countries.
Mis Farzaneh Hassanitavabe, Doctor Reza Roshan, Doctor Abdolkarim Hosseinpoor,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
The economic growth rate indicates changes in the level of economic activity and a country's ability to produce goods and services, which can be used as a measure to evaluate a country's economic performance and compare it with other countries. In the case of financial development, the ratio of financial assets to non-financial assets increases, which can have an impact on increasing economic growth.The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of oil revenues on the economic growth of Persian Gulf countries with an emphasis on the financial development channel. The countries under study include: Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, and the research period was from 2003 to 2023. For this purpose, a two-regime threshold panel regression model was used. The findings show that the effect of oil revenues on economic growth through the financial development where the level of financial deepening is less than the threshold level channel is positive and significant for the first regime, So that before reaching the threshold, one percent in oil revenues increases economic growth by 9.87 percent. For the second regime, that the dependence financial development channel on oil revenues is higher than the threshold level. It is not meaningful. Also, the control variables of trade openness, gross investment, inflation, government consumption expenditure have had a positive and significant impact on the economic growth of the mentioned countries.
Hossein Nasrollahi,
Volume 15, Issue 58 (2-2025)
Volume 15, Issue 58 (2-2025)
Abstract
Employment is one of the most important issues that any country faces. Employment plays a vital role not only for individuals but also for the economy as a whole, and provides a deep understanding of the labor market conditions of an economy. In this regard, the minimum wage is an important factor that affects the labor market. The literature on the minimum wage uses two labor market models. The standard competitive model, which predicts that the minimum wage will have negative employment effects. In other words, under conditions of perfect competition, economic theory suggests that a higher minimum wage will lead to job losses, and noncompetitive labor market models, which predict that the minimum wage will have positive employment effects. However, it is generally unclear whether minimum wages have a positive or negative effect on employment, or are ineffective. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the effects of the real minimum wage on employment in Iran, within the framework of a multiple regression model and OLS estimation during the period 1379-1400. The results of the regression analysis show that the increase in the real minimum wage has a significant negative effect on employment, so that with a one-unit increase in the real minimum wage, employment decreases by about 0.37 units. Therefore, taking the above into account, it is suggested that the increase in the minimum wage should be made as proportionate as possible to the Labor productivity in the economy
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