Dr Hassan Tahsili,
Volume 4, Issue 13 (10-2013)
Abstract
In economic literature especially in international economic literature, the Harberger, Laursen and Metzler (HLM) effect is an important issue. According to HLM effect, deterioration in the terms of trade decreases GNP and then causes deterioration in the current account.
The main idea of this study is the examination of HLM effect in Economy of Iran. We use annual data of current account, terms of trade and GNP as relevant variables. In this paper ARDL approach was applied for period (1978 -2010).
The Banerjee, Dolado and Mastre and also Pessaran and shin cointegration test verified the equilibrium long run relation between our variables. In the other words the results of econometric estimation indicated a long run relationship between current account, terms of trade and GNP. According to these results, terms of trade and GNP have direct effects on current account.
Morteza Chashti, Mohammad Reza Lotfalipour, Mehdi Behname, Taghi Enrahimi Salari,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
International balance of payments is one of the most common criteria for measuring the flow of trade and capital transfers in an open economy. The three main components of this balance are: trade balance, current account (or difference between export and import of goods and services) and capital account. In this study, factor augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) was used to evaluate the effects of balance of payments shocks on macroeconomic variables in the Iran economy in periode 1989-2017. The factors used in this study included economic growth, oil revenues, money growth, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates. The results show that the shock from the current account and capital account led to an increase in production, consumption and investment. The reaction of nominal sector variables such as inflation and interest rate to positive shock was also positive. Comparison of the results of this study shows that incorporation of hidden variables and factors into the model resulted in faster response of macroeconomic variables to the shocks entered by the balance of payments components.
