Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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Iran’s share of world exports has not been great in recent years and the development of non-oil exports such as exports of industrial goods in order to reduce the economy's dependence on oil revenues made necessary. The real exchange rate is one of the most important variables affecting exports. In this context, investigate the effect of the real exchange rate volatility on different variables such as the export is important. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of real exchange rate volatility on exports of Iran Industrial goods over the period of 1968-2010. To that end, The real exchange rate volatility index has been estimated incorporating with EGARCH (0,1)  model than we using co-integration of  Saikkonen & Lutkepohl and FMOLS to investigate the impact of the real exchange rate volatility index, along with other variables of model exports of industrial goods have been evaluated.
The main empirical finding of this paper show that the real exchange rate volatility variables and export prices have negative and significant effects on exports of industrial goods and variables GDP’s world, GDP’s Iran and trade  of openness  have positive and significant effects on exports of industrial goods. The empirical findings of this paper, The beneficial implications for investors and Policy makers needs to recognize the exact effects of exchange rate volatility on exports of industrial goods are provided.

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Today, the importance of the effectiveness of economic growth on inflation is not hidden from anyone. The literature expresses different views about the effect of inflation on economic growth. Some studies have emphasized the existence of a positive relationship, some studies have emphasized the existence of a negative relationship, and some have considered the effect of inflation on economic growth to be neutral. In recent decades, Iranian economy has faced inflationary conditions that can affect economic growth. Macroeconomics uncertainties can also intensify the negative effect of inflation on economic growth. Considering the importance of the issue, in this article, the vulnerability of economic growth to inflation in the conditions of macroeconomic uncertainties is investigated. For this purpose, using time series data during 1370-1401, the dynamics of the effect of inflation on economic growth has been investigated, using the autoregression method with a distribution with an interval. Since inflation at different levels and thresholds can have a different effect on economic growth, the threshold effect of inflation has been investigated using the threshold regression method. Considering the different effect of inflation in macroeconomic uncertainty, the effect of inflation at the level and threshold on economic growth has been investigated once considering macroeconomic uncertainty and another time without considering macroeconomic uncertainty. E-GARCH method has been used to extract macroeconomic uncertainty. In the models examined in the article, uncertainty of exchange rate, uncertainty of liquidity and uncertainty of stock price index were considered. The findings indicate, inflation at the level without macroeconomic uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth, but taking macroeconomic uncertainty into account, inflation at the level has a negative effect on economic growth. Also, considering macroeconomic uncertainty indicates that the negative effect of inflation on economic growth is intensified.