Dr Reza Akbarian, Mr Farhad Zand, Dr Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri, Dr Hojat Parsa,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
Market economies rely on the payment system to facilitate trade and exchange between businesses and consumers in the product market. "Payment" is the transfer of monetary value. The ability to control monetary policy instruments is one of the challenges of monetary policy in Iran. The reduction of the central bank's control over the money supply and the implementation of monetary policy is due to the change that occurs in the monetary base and the monetary multiplier. The structure of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models, like other general equilibrium models, aims to describe the behavior of the entire economy and use decision interaction analysis. Wisdom is built on different levels.Due to the existence of sanctions and the lack of clear and correct information on the amount of sales of crude oil and other export items and petroleum products and unnecessary complications in doing the economics paper, it is considered closed, but if the correct information in can be considered as the expansion of the economy.The findings of this section indicate that the central bank's reaction to the growth rate of the total index of the real sector of the economy against the reaction to the deviation of the total index from its long-term equilibrium level can be more effective in reducing the real effects of the shocks of the real sector of the economy on macroeconomic variables. . Because the central bank controls the status of asset returns in other parallel markets such as currency, price levels, deposits and loans, and therefore the reaction to the emotional dynamics of the market return against the reaction to the market index level further guarantees macroeconomic stability.
Ali Moridian, Hassan Heidari, Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, Heshmatollah Asgari,
Volume 16, Issue 60 (9-2026)
Abstract
Objective: This study examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty, exchange rate, and oil price on inflation in Iran during the period 2008 to 2023. The main objective is to identify the short-term, medium-term, and long-term nature of these effects and analyze inflation dynamics using modern wavelet and machine learning methods.
Materials and Methods: Regularized least squares regression with wavelet kernel (WKRLS) and nonparametric wavelet quantile causality (WNQC) are used to analyze nonlinear and scale-dependent relationships between variables. The data include inflation index, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), unofficial exchange rate, and oil price on a monthly basis. The generalized wavelet quantile Dickey-Fuller test (Wavelet-QADF) is also used to examine the stationarity of time series.
Results: The results show that key variables of the Iranian economy are stationary in most quantiles and time scales. According to WKRLS estimates, the effect of economic policy uncertainty on inflation is weak in the short run, decreasing but still significant in the medium run, and increasing non-linearly and acceleratingly in the long run. The exchange rate has the greatest impact on inflation, especially in the short run due to the Iranian economy’s heavy dependence on imports. Oil prices also have a significant impact on inflation and its volatility in the long run. WNQC findings show that economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate uncertainty have a stronger effect in the low and middle quantiles of inflation, while oil prices mainly amplify inflation fluctuations in the long run.
Conclusion: The findings emphasize the importance of stable economic policies, reducing dependence on oil revenues, and controlling exchange rate fluctuations for managing inflation in Iran. Also, combining wavelet and machine learning methods allows for a more comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics in different conditions.
