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Showing 2 results for Fiscal Policies

Leila Ahmadvand, , ,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract

Social security organization, as the largest active institution in the field of social security and insurance of the country, plays a critical role in the social, livelihood and economic situation, so that any kind of disturbance in the economic situation of that organization creates a crisis in the entire economic system. provides Since the fulfillment of the obligations of the organization to the society is based on the economic ability and the resources it has, it is necessary to make a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the resources of the organization and make policies accordingly. In this research, the effect of monetary and financial policies on the state of social security organization's resources has been investigated in two models. The time period of the research is between 1350 and 1399, and in order to analyze the data, the vector autoregression method with distributed intervals (ARDL) was used. The results of the research show that the real GDP, liquidity, interest rate, exchange rate, support ratio and the ratio of compulsory workers to the total insured have a positive and significant impact on the state of social security organization's resources. Also, the effect of the ratio of tax revenues to GDP on the organization's resources is negative. In this regard, in order to improve the situation of resources, it is suggested that, in addition to economic policies (such as no excessive growth of taxes, regulation of liquidity and interest rates at a level commensurate with the increase in economic growth), population policies and increasing youth The population should also be given enough attention.

Ebrahim Ghaed, Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri, Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi, Narges Salehnia,
Volume 15, Issue 56 (8-2024)
Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to predicting the effects of fiscal policies on greenhouse emissions in Iran from 1991 to 2021. To achieve this, bayesian model averaging (BMA) and Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) approaches were employed. The results indicate that out of 14 fiscal policy variables, the top five models with the highest posterior probabilities were identified using the aforementioned methods. The most effective models included variables such as financial asset acquisitions, oil revenues, corporate taxes, wealth taxes, current expenditures, and other revenues. Subsequently, the impact of these variables on CO2 emissions was analyzed over 10 periods using the BVAR method. The impulse response function results revealed that shocks to the financial asset acquisitions, oil revenues, wealth taxes, current expenditures, and other revenues had positive effects on CO2 emissions, with the most significant impact stemming from shocks to financial asset acquisitions. Conversely, only shocks to the corporate taxes demonstrated a negative effect. Additionally, the variance decomposition of CO2 emission forecast errors indicated that the oil revenues and wealth taxes played the most significant roles in explaining forecast errors, with their contributions increasing during intermediate periods.


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