Showing 8 results for Iranian Economy
Dr Ebrahim Rezaei,
Volume 2, Issue 6 (12-2011)
Abstract
The number of factors affecting total factor productivity has been increasing far from those which considered in growth models. So, institutional factors have been attracting strong attention of researchers. This paper aims at investigating the effects of these institutional factors together with traditional factors on TFP growth during 1971-2007.
For this purpose, we present a State-Space model. Using this approach, TFP has been regarded as a latent variable and in the state equation, we introduced some exogenous variables. Some endogenous variables which were mainly measures of institutional factors have been specified as proxies. Our result show that the introduced measures of institutions such as governance(political stability and accountability) institutions and degree of government intervention together with an older and known institutional factors, such as macroeconomic instability, have significant effects on TFP growth. In addition, the residuals from state-space model (either deterministic or stochastic) were different from the residuals of other models.
Seyed Aziz Arman, Masumeh Mirabizadeh,
Volume 3, Issue 8 (6-2012)
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of inflation on real investment in Iran. After briefly reviewing the investment theories and their situation in Iran, we consider the determinants of investment by using annual data (1958-2009).
Results of the Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) test indicate that all of the variables appearing in model are I(1). So, the results of the threshold regression model indicate that real GDP, the trade openness index and inflation rate can influence investment.
Results also show that the effect of inflation on investment follows an asymmetric adjustment process. The threshold level for the rate of inflation has been estimated 11.9 percent. If the annual rate of inflation exceeds this threshold level, it will have a negative impact on investment. But, if inflation remains below this level, not only the negative effect fades away but also rising prices can boost investment.
Narges Samadpoor, Mostafa Emadzade, Homayoun Rangbar, Firozeh Azizi,
Volume 5, Issue 15 (3-2014)
Abstract
The growth of non-communicable diseases, and the enormous costs of health care, has led policy makers to focus on “education”, as an effective instrument to improve the public health. Recent empirical studies show that education can improve health and increase life expectancy via ameliorating the life style. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of education on health in Iran over the period of 1974- 2010. Health production function is defined based on the Grossman (1972) model. The empirical model has been estimated by using co-integration technique and error correction model. Separation of short and long-term effects and estimate of impact by education’s temporary and permanent lag time changes on health is considered the innovation aspect of this research. The results of model estimation indicate that there is a positive and long-term equilibrium relationship between health and education. Based on evidence obtained, education plays a key role in health improvement. Empowering people by investment in their education can prevent many non-communicable diseases. Diseases that are imposed by our incorrect life style. Today we believe that an active participation of elementary and high schools, higher education, and mass media can ameliorate the health statue of society.
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Volume 7, Issue 23 (3-2016)
Abstract
Regarding to studies in different countries the research and development (R&D) play a major role in economy growth. Investment in R&D increase level of knowledge, and we have increase in production efficiency by knowledge increasing, after that economic growth will improve by productivity channel. Many studies exist on the R&D but in any of them not used the same variable for this indicator. The time series of knowledge level is not visible because of complexity the calculations and measurements of this variable. In this study the level of knowledge is intended as an unobservable variable. After that using LP and OP method the time series of this variable is extracted during the period 1974-2014 for Iranian economy. Estimates this series will be an important way for future empirical studies in research and development. Algorithms and methods that used in this paper can be run for other countries. Based on LP method, results shows during the 40 years of knowledge for Iranian economy has upward trend and the averages of grow rate of knowledge level is 0.42 percent for each year.
Hoda Zobeiri,
Volume 7, Issue 26 (12-2016)
Abstract
Exchange rate is one of the key indicators affecting macroeconomic performance, and inflation is one of the most important indicators which represents the macroeconomic performance. The aim of this paper is to identify the relation between these two important economic variables. By using the model of structural time series and Kalman Filter algorithm the effect of exchange rate gap (the difference between official exchange rate and parallel market exchange rate) on inflation in Iran has been investigated during 1961- 2012. The results of this paper indicate that exchange rate gap has a significant positive impact on inflation in Iran, so that 1 percent increase in exchange rate gap lead to 3 percent increase in inflation in Iran. These results have approved the single currency policy to control inflation in the country.
Hadi Keshavarz,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
The labor market, as one of the four markets, plays an important role in economic growth and development. So review developments in the labor market because of its close relationship with developments in other sectors is of great importance. This study tries to examine the dynamics of the labor market by adjusting for a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. After the model was solved, the obtained equations were linearized and their parameters were estimated using the economic data of Iran (2005-2017) by the Bayesian method. Comparing the model's moments with the economic momentum indicates the success of the model in real-world simulation (production, consumption, investment, unemployment, and participation rate). Impulse Response Functions Survey shows that participation rates are consistent with cyclic behavior. On the other hand, in response to shocks (monetary, oil revenues, government expenditures, and public sector employment), increased employment, but the unemployment rate has changed slightly due to the change in the participation rate and the change in the size of the active population, which represents the sustainability of the unemployment rate.
Mr Mohammad Nikzad, Dr Mahdi Yazdani,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)
Abstract
The balance of payments shocks affects different economies and can lead to business cycles. Hence, the main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the effects of different balance of payments shocks, including the shocks of oil exports, non-oil exports, imports, net capital account, real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index, on total output and creation of business cycles. Therefore, in this study it will be tried to evaluate the effect of balance of payments shocks, and their importance, on creation of fluctuations in total production in Iranian economy. For this purpose, the structural vector auto-regressive method has been used during the seasonal period of 2001:02-2021:04. The results based on impulse response functions show that the shocks real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index have negative effect on output and lead to recession cycle in the economy. Also, the shocks of non-oil export, oil export, import and net capital account will be caused to boom cycle in the economy. Meanwhile, the exchange rate shock has had the most effect on output. Finally, the real exchange rate, oil export and real interest rate variables have had the most share in explanation of output variance, while the effect of import has been raised in the next.
Mrs Roghayeh Soltani, Dr Roya Seifipour, Dr Mir Hossein Mousavi, Dr Saman Ziaee,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
Applying a favorable tax system has important conditions such as justice and efficiency, therefore, consumption tax and income tax will comply with the principles of benefit and ability to pay. In this regard, value added tax is known as the most important innovation of the 20th century in terms of tax collection on consumption. Since increasing government revenue is one of the important goals of imposing this type of tax, the government has tried to determine the rate of this type of tax effectively and efficiently. Disproportionate increase in value added tax rates can have negative social effects on inflation, economic growth, income distribution, and general well-being in society. It may also have disruptive effects on other variables and sectors of Iran's economy. To manage the rate increase, one approach is to simulate and examine its consequences and effects on macroeconomic variables in the form of a multi-regional calculable general equilibrium model (MRCGE). Three different scenarios were applied and examined to simulate the shock effects of the increase in the value-added tax rate (12% , 15% , and 20 %) on four macro variables of Iran's economy: inflation, gross domestic product, consumption, and investment. The simulations were conducted at the country level using a multi-regional calculable general balance model, known as the ORANI-G Iran model, using the 2016 input-output table and regional accounts of the country. The results indicate that the effect of increasing the tax rate on value-added will increase inflation and investment and decrease GDP and consumption.
