Dr Parviz Rostamzadeh, Elizabeth Soltani Shirazi, Dr Rouhollah Shahnazi, Dr Sakine Owjimehr,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Unconventional monetary policies entered the field of economic discussions after the global financial crisis of 2008 and with the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policies and have been considered with the aim of combating the reduction of money supply and economic recession. One of the important tools used to implement unconventional monetary policies is credit esing, which obviously does not have a quantitative value, and on the other hand, its prediction and impact on macroeconomic variables is of particular importance. In this research, the effect of the shocks resulting from the implementation of the credit easing policy on Iran's macroeconomic variables is investigated using the QUAL VAR method. In this way, using standard, simulated and quantified methods, the effect of credit easing policy shocks on macroeconomic variables during the years 2001 to 2022 is investigated using various tests. The results show that the impact of the mentioned policy shocks in the first months after the shock has caused a 0.04 percent decrease in the real GDP growth rate, a 0.01 percent increase in the inflation rate, and a 0.03 percent decrease in the employment rate and then in the following months, it will increase real GDP growth rate and employment rate. The mentioned shocks caused a 0.03 percent increase in the monetary base. Therefore, these applied shocks increase growth expectations. In general, the results show the fact that the policy of credit easing has led to an expansion in the assets side of the Central Bank's balance sheet, and by applying the necessary controls, it can be a suitable tool for stabilizing and growing macroeconomic variables in the months after its implementation and dealing with recessionary conditions.
Dr Mahboobeh Khadem Nematollahi, Dr Teymour Mohammadi, Dr Abbas Shakeri, Dr Ali Asghar Salem,
Volume 15, Issue 57 (11-2024)
Abstract
The aim of this paper was to estimate the effects of unconventional monetary policy shocks using Narrative sign restrictions method as a novel method, imposing sign restriction on the impulse responses of real interest rate, GDP, GDP price deflator, nonborrowed reserves as well as Total Reserves in response to monetary policy shocks in Iran. Using Narrative sign restrictions model for the period 1983-2020 enables considering the effects of aforementioned five variables as well as identifying the effect of monetary policy shocks on these variables. Narrative sign restrictions constrain signs based on narrative information. According to the liquidity effect, results of the impulse responses function highlights decreasing real interest rate causes increasing in aggregate demand and GDP. With Narrative sign restrictions, real interest rate shocks also have significant impact on GDP through increasing it. To this aim, according to results and also with regard to the importance of unconventional monetary policy in response to crisis, this policy can be applied for resolving stagflation and this supplement policy can be applied besides other policies of Central Bank.
