Showing 20 results for Inflation
Hamid Abrishami, Mohesn Mehara, Mahdi Nouri, Mohsen Mohaghegh,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (10-2010)
Abstract
The aim of this study is to review the causal relations between TFP growth and inflation as one of the attracting issues in Macroeconomic literature. For the first time in Iran, we have used the wavelet decomposition technique to study this relation. Both TFP growth and inflation series between 1960-2006 are decomposed up to three levels. Our analysis of causality relations between all the composed and decomposed series shows that though no statically meaningful effect between original series has been proved, there are some negative relations between decomposed series in first and second level. Moreover, our study reveals some previously unknown spillover effects between various frequencies of both series as explained in paper. Finally, on the basis of relations founded between decomposed series of inflation in different frequencies, we introduce a new instrument to measure the volatility of inflation.
Hossein Amiri, Dr Ebrahim Gorji,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (3-2011)
Abstract
The Phillips curve usually has been estimated in a linear framework which implies a stable constant relationship between inflation and unemployment. Some of the studies claim that the slope of the Phillips curve is a function of macroeconomic conditions and also the relationship is asymmetric. This article deals with a smooth transition regression model for relationship between inflation and unemployment for Iran, during the period of 1971 -2007. Smooth transition regression model is a non linear time series regression model which could be considered as developed form of regime switching regression model. Results show that there is a negative and nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment in short-term. Regarding this result it's highly important for policy makers to be able to make a relationship between these two variables
Rahim Dallali Esfahani, Said Samadi, Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedi, Amir Jabbari, Reza Samadi Boroujeni,
Volume 3, Issue 7 (3-2012)
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of different variables on inflation in the monetary economics using endogenous growth models. So, different aspects of inflation formation were analyzed based on micro-foundations. We investigated the role of imported inflation, fiat money, expectations, monetary base and capital accumulation on inflation using an endogenous growth model. An ARDL approach was utilized to estimate the model for Iranian economy during 1979 -2008. The estimation results show that imported inflation affects the inflation through the exchange rate channel. Also, expectations, capital return and monetary base play an outstanding role in Iranian economy.
Hossein Tavakolian, Akbar Komijani,
Volume 3, Issue 8 (6-2012)
Abstract
It is more likely that the monetary policy in Iran is discretionary and not based on a rule or a target. Besides, what is clear is that there have been explicit targets for inflation and economic growth in all five-year development plans (except the fifth plan). However, the question is that do policy makers observe the targets of development plans? Using an adjusted New Keynesian DSGE model for Iran, in this study we investigate the monetary policy under fiscal dominance and implicit inflation targeting of Iran. The results show that in most plans monetary authorities do not observe the explicit targets of five-year plans. The estimated monetary reaction function is only able to explain the period 2001-2011. The other result is that implementation delays of public projects have considerable effects on output and private consumption.
Hojjat Izadkhasti, Said Samadi, Rahim Dallali,
Volume 5, Issue 15 (3-2014)
Abstract
Money is a facilitator of economic activities, thus, formatting of economic activity is dependent on the institutionalizing of monetary system. In common monetary system, the weakness of common perception about money, publishing and distributing mechanism led to inefficiencies in optimal allocation of resources and welfare cost of inflation tax. Partial equilibrium model in compare with general equilibrium model, underestimate welfare cost of inflation tax. Therefore, in dynamic optimization model, the equation of welfare cost of inflation tax, in addition to general equilibrium model of Lucas, derived from theoretical correction of demands for real money balances. Then welfare cost compared theoretically and experimentally in partial and general equilibrium model. Theoretical and experimental results indicate that the welfare costs of inflation tax in general equilibrium models, is an upper bound of partial equilibrium models. Also, given that the elasticity of demand for money in regard to the nominal interest rate, the welfare cost of inflation tax increases with nominal interest rate and inflation.
Hassan Rangriz, Hooman Pashootanizadeh,
Volume 6, Issue 19 (3-2015)
Abstract
Extension informal and unorganized money and credit markets in Iran, is much broader than the official money markets. This problem causes a large difference between formal and informal money market loans interest rate in Iran. The large size of the informal market liquidity that can’t be guided by the monetary policies of central bank's and fiscal policies could help to increase the inflation rate in the country.
In this paper, we use the AHP method for to explore this topic that fits with the existing monetary and financial institutions, which sector is more appropriate for investment and targeted liquidity existing in society, in order to reduce inflation and stimulate growth in the industry. The results revealed the stock exchange is the best financial and investments institutions in order to reduce the inflation that caused by the high liquidity of the present.
Kiomars Sohaili, Shahram Fattahi, Mahnaz Sorkhvandi,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
Monetary policy is one of the most important macroeconomic policies which could be used for achieving economic targets such as reducing the output gap and reducing the inflation's deviation from it's target level. These policies can be implemented through the control of volume of money or the rate of interest. Based on economic theories, the Central Bank should conduct monetary policies within a rule-based framework. In periods of positive or negative output gap or when inflation's deviation from it's target level is positive or negative, different monetary policies should be adopted. Assessment of Central Bank monetary policy's conformity to rules and the consistency of these policies with economic theories like Taylor's theory, is of vital importance. In order to evaluate the consistency of central bank monetary policies with economic theories, this study investigates the monetary strategies of Central Bank regarding the inflation's deviation and output gap during the period 1974-2013. It applies the Bootstrap method for this purpose. The result shows that Central Bank does not counteract the output gap during the periods of recession and boom and it's reactions to the inflation's deviation is in the reverse direction.
Karim Eslamloueyan, Zahra Khalilnezhad,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to study the relationship between exchange rate misalignments and inflation persistence in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, we first use a non-linear smooth transition regression model to estimate equilibrium exchange rate in the context of a monetary model for the period 1978:2-2012:1. This allows us to compute exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level. In the next next state, in order to examine whether the inflation rate is persistence, we use a threshold autoregressive method to examine the non-linear behavior of inflation rate in Iran. In general, the result shows that there is a direct relationship between the exchange rate misalignment and the inflation persistence. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level is costly due to its effect on inflation rate. Moreover, the result indicates that an increase in the level of exchange rate is associated with inflation persistence. This finding has important policy implication for monetary authorites in Iran to implement appopriate exchange rate policy in order to fight inflation persistence in this country.
, ,
Volume 7, Issue 24 (6-2016)
Abstract
In recent years “Financial Conditions Index" (herein FCI) has been used as a key indicator of the monetary policy condition. Considering the importance of this index, the purpose of the present research is to reach a comprehensive index that includes all the monetary transmission mechanisms based on the Iranian economy. To this aim, a weighted average of the banking interest, real exchange rates , credits and price of other assets (namely the stock price index, and housing price index ), need to be calculated. The weighted average of the variables are obtained by estimating the, backward-looking aggregate supply and demand equations for Iran. In the next stage, in order to test the validity of the obtained index, and because of the importance of price stability for the central bank, the predictive power of the index from inflation in Iran was examined using Non-Nested Tests and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Seasonal data series are collected for the period of 1991-2012.The findings of this study show that the weight of housing price variable is higher than the other variables, whilst, the stock price index coefficient was not significant in any lag. Moreover, the results of second stage tests, indicate a good predicative power of the FCI index from the inflation in Iran.
Mohammadreza Monjazeb, Mohsen Mahmoodi Pati,
Volume 7, Issue 26 (12-2016)
Abstract
The main objective of this study is: investigate the effect of government size on inflation rate in the 34 countries of the developing countries during the years 1998 to 2013. For this purpose, the index of total government spending as a percentage of GDP, used as government size and then the model of this study has been estimated by using the panel data technique.
The results of this study imply that the government size has had significant negative effect on the inflation rate and also the variables: liquidity growth rate, growth rate of import price and interest rate have had positive effect on the inflation. Furthermore, the growth rate of GDP, with a difference of degree has significant negative effect on inflation. Hence, the most important result of this study is the majority of the general government- spending in Developing countries has led to the Construction costs and investment in infrastructures that has strengthened. The supply side of the economy of these Countries that The origin of this effect can be the retarded economic structures of these countries.
Hoda Zobeiri,
Volume 7, Issue 26 (12-2016)
Abstract
Exchange rate is one of the key indicators affecting macroeconomic performance, and inflation is one of the most important indicators which represents the macroeconomic performance. The aim of this paper is to identify the relation between these two important economic variables. By using the model of structural time series and Kalman Filter algorithm the effect of exchange rate gap (the difference between official exchange rate and parallel market exchange rate) on inflation in Iran has been investigated during 1961- 2012. The results of this paper indicate that exchange rate gap has a significant positive impact on inflation in Iran, so that 1 percent increase in exchange rate gap lead to 3 percent increase in inflation in Iran. These results have approved the single currency policy to control inflation in the country.
Dr Hamid Kordbacheh, Ms Zahra Ahmadi, Dr Abolfazl Shahabadi,
Volume 7, Issue 26 (12-2016)
Abstract
Over past decades there have been conflicting views on whether raising the minimum wage increases inflation. This study updates and expands earlier research into this subject and fills a void in the empirical literature by studying that the impacts of the minimum wage on inflation could be altered in the different economic situations. In framework of cost push inflation theoretical background, the direct and indirect effects of minimum wage changes on wage and inflation can be seen as taking place in several stages. The overall wage inflation outcome can, of course, also depend on the position of the economy in a particular stage of the business cycle. To examine this hypothesis, we used a Markov regime-switching model to study the impact of minimum wage increases on inflation over expansion or recession situations in Iran during the 1973- 2013 period. The comparison between a single-regime and regime shifting models provides the similar results for the sample period. The most important finding of this study is that there is no significant impact of minimum wage increases on inflation regardless of economic situations. However, the results show that the inflation shock positively impacts minimum wage in both models. In sum, our results provide a significant contribution to the empirical literature by verifying that the effectiveness of minimum wage on inflation is not dependent on the business cycle economic situation. The main policy implication for Iran's economy deriving from this study is that the minimum wages should be increased to compensate wage workers for real-wage decrease caused by inflation, without any concern about its inflationary effects.
Hosein Mohammadi, Mehdi Mahmoudi,
Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)
Abstract
Interest rate is one of the most important policy variabels in macroeconomic. Global financial crises and big debt in some countries around the world, make the importance interest rate more explicitly. In the carrent study, the effect of interest rate, inflation, government investment and expenditure on GDP capita per was investigated using panel data approach. Forthermore panel VAR method was used to consider the effects of each mentioned variables on each other and investigating causality relationships between these variabls. 20 Islamic and 19 Non-Islamic countries during 1990-2014 were selected for this study. The results show that in both Islamic and Non-Islamic countries, interest and inflation rate have a significant negative effect on GDP per capita. Government investment in both groups of countries have a significant positive effect on GDP per capita. These results are inline with economic theories. Finally, government expenditures in these groups of countries have different effect on GDP per capita. also lowering interest rate Non-Islamic countries has a considerable effect on other variables.
Hojjat Izadkhasti,
Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)
Abstract
An efficient monetary and tax system plays an important role in the proper performance of the economic system, and can effect on motivation of labor, consumer, savings and investment behavior. A theory of monetary and tax reform is movement of the income tax system and inflation tax to the system of consumption tax, that can increase the tendency to savings, investment and capital accumulation. In this study, with public finance approach and using dynamic general equilibrium model with cash in advance restriction on consumption and investment, analysis the effects of reform inflation tax and consumption tax rates during the equilibrium growth path. Then, with put the amount of parameters in the steady state, sensitivity analysis of the variables to the reform of inflation tax and consumption tax rates will be discussed in the various reform program. The results of calibration and sensitivity analysis in various scenarios indicates that the reduce of inflation tax and increase the consumption tax rate, along with reducing the size of government and reduce liquidity constraints on investment, has increased capital accumulation, production, consumption, real money balances per capita and the welfare in the steady state.
Ali Akbar Bajelan, Saeed Karimi Potanlar, Ahmad Jafari Samimi,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
The purpose of current paper is to survey the asymmetric effects of inflation's positive and negative shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. For this end, first, the Ball model (1992) has been extended through the decomposition of inflation shocks to money demand's positive and negative shocks and money supply's positive and negative shocks. Then, through using nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag model and time series data of Iranian economy from 1978 to 2017 the positive and negative effects of inflation on inflation uncertainty, which is from the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, has been analyzed. The results of the study show that the effects of the inflation's positive shocks on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run are positive and significant. In contrast, the negative shocks have not any effects on inflation uncertainty in short-run and long-run. In other words, the rise in inflation causes an increase in inflation uncertainty in Iran; whereas, decrease in inflation has not had effects on inflation uncertainty.
Nasrin Ebrahimi, Mehdi Pedram, Mirhossein Mousavi,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
The inflation rate, which measured using consumer price index, can be separated into a combination of two persistent and temporary components. This separating is particularly important in analyzing inflation rate and policies to control it. In fact, without knowing the persistent component of inflation, called core inflation, quantitative targeting of inflation may not be accurate. Core inflation as a more persistent component can be measured stripping out the transitory movements in prices. The understanding of the behavior of the national core inflation rate series needs to understand provincial core inflation since the construction of the former is based on the provincial series. So, the purpose of this paper is the estimation of provincial and national core inflation in Iran. Core inflation is unobservable variable, so it estimated using Space State Model and Kalman Filter. Results show that average core inflation in all of the provinces, as well as Iran, is less than average underlying inflation. The standard deviation of core inflation in some provinces is more than underlying inflation. While core inflation in other provinces, as well as Iran, has more standard deviation as compared to underlying inflation.
Hoda Zobeiri, Mani Motameni,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
Due to pension fund problems in Iran, the multi-pillar social insurance system has been released in 2017. According to this, the first pillar is regarding to low income groups and finance through the public fund. The second pillar is defined benefit and finance pay as you go. The third pillar is defined contribution and fully funded finance. Contributions are transferred to the individual account. The pension fund directors supposed to investments the accounts and to return the Contribution fund and its returns in retirement time. The main issue is that the old age pensions are not guaranteed in this plan and face with financial risk and inflation. Due to high inflation of Iran’s economy, the main challenge of third pillar plan is the inflation. This paper is main to inflation hedging in defined contribution pension plan by Investing in Tehran Stock-Exchange. By using NARDL model and 133 monthly data up to 2020 the results show that TSE index can hedge the inflation.
Davoud Mahmoudinia, Hadis Mazangi,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
Today, the unconventional policy of negative interest rate is discussed in many Western societies and developed countries, and the implementation of this policy in the financial and banking system has brought growth and prosperity in many economies involved in the crisis. In fact, by applying a negative interest rate, the bank will be able to direct credit allocation to productive and priority sectors. On the other hand, this policy, along with the independence of the central bank and the non-interference of the government in creating liquidity and making money from it, can reduce the level of inflation. Iran is a developing country with high inflation, and the interest rate as a monetary policy will not be very effective in the economy and is determined by the monetary authorities under the government's rule. When governments face budget deficits due to sanctions and lack of revenue sources, they create money by relying on their supervision over the performance of the central bank and use it as a solution to earn money, Therefore, it fuels inflation in the society. Therefore, in this research, within the framework of the optimization model of the money demand function and the model of money in the utility function, taken from the study of Walsh (2003) and Sidrauski (1967) and its extension, we will investigate the behavior of negative interest rates on inflation and optimal money interest. The obtained results show that in the environment of money interest and inflation, with the application of negative nominal interest rate, the equilibrium path has a downward and decreasing trend, and in this situation, inflation and money interest will decrease in the long term. Therefore, the government has the ability to compensate for its budget deficit through solutions such as bonds and income tax, and in the long term, by reducing the money interest rate, it can reduce the level of inflation in the society and this will improve the social welfare of people.
Dr Samira Motaghi, Dr Yegane Mosavi Jahromi, Mr Mohammad Amin Taheri Gorgani,
Volume 14, Issue 51 (5-2023)
Abstract
Purpose: The insurance penetration rate is one of the most important indicators used to evaluate the insurance industry of a country. This ratio is also a measure to compare the performance of the insurance industry between developed and developing countries. The aim of this research is to compare the insurance penetration rate and the factors affecting it in high and low income countries.
Methodology: The current research examines the effect of variables such as inflation rate, education, labor productivity, dependency ratio and income on the insurance penetration rate in the period 2011-2021 and using PMG and ARDL methods to derive short-term and long-term equations in 18 countries with income High and low income and the country of Iran pays.
Findings: The results obtained from the estimation of long-term PMG models in high-income countries indicate a positive effect of dependency ratio, income level and fertility level on the insurance penetration rate, as well as a negative effect of inflation rate and labor productivity on the dependent variable, also in selected countries with high income. All the variables, except for education and dependency ratio, which had a positive and significant effect on the insurance penetration rate, are statistically meaningless. On the other hand, the findings from the estimation of the long-term ARDL model in Kesho Iran show the negative impact of the inflation rate on the insurance penetration rate and the positive impact of the education level, income level and dependency ratio on the insurance penetration rate.
Dr Reza Akbarian, Mr Farhad Zand, Dr Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri, Dr Hojat Parsa,
Volume 14, Issue 52 (9-2023)
Abstract
Market economies rely on the payment system to facilitate trade and exchange between businesses and consumers in the product market. "Payment" is the transfer of monetary value. The ability to control monetary policy instruments is one of the challenges of monetary policy in Iran. The reduction of the central bank's control over the money supply and the implementation of monetary policy is due to the change that occurs in the monetary base and the monetary multiplier. The structure of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models, like other general equilibrium models, aims to describe the behavior of the entire economy and use decision interaction analysis. Wisdom is built on different levels.Due to the existence of sanctions and the lack of clear and correct information on the amount of sales of crude oil and other export items and petroleum products and unnecessary complications in doing the economics paper, it is considered closed, but if the correct information in can be considered as the expansion of the economy.The findings of this section indicate that the central bank's reaction to the growth rate of the total index of the real sector of the economy against the reaction to the deviation of the total index from its long-term equilibrium level can be more effective in reducing the real effects of the shocks of the real sector of the economy on macroeconomic variables. . Because the central bank controls the status of asset returns in other parallel markets such as currency, price levels, deposits and loans, and therefore the reaction to the emotional dynamics of the market return against the reaction to the market index level further guarantees macroeconomic stability.
