Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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Price shocks lead to oil price volatility in world oil markets. In response to this volatility, economic growth may take different regime and behavior patterns in different situation. Investigating this multi behavior patterns can be useful for policymakers to reduce the effect of oil price volatility. In this study, an EGARCH model has developed using the seasonal data of OPEC oil basket nominal prices during 1367:Q1-1389:Q4. Markov switching models is also applied to investigate the multi behavior patterns of economic growth in response to oil price volatility in Iran. The results show that positive oil price shocks sharply lead to formation of oil price volatility, but, the negative price shocks will slightly reduce oil price volatility. Iranian economic growth is affected by this volatility under three different behavior regimes. If the economy switch to one of the regimes (low, medium, high economic growth), the probability of transition between these regimes and their duration is different. So, oil price volatility as a reason for low economic growth in Iran may cause the economy switch to its lower situation.

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Due to the position of meat products in the food pyramid and its importance in maintaining people's health and that economic sanctions can have a significant effect on meat consumption through the channel of increasing production costs and increasing the price of meat, the purpose of this research is to investigate the existence of failure There is a structure in the preferences of the meat consumption basket of urban households using the parametric approach and the switching regression framework developed by Ohtani and Katayama (1986) in the period of 2001-2013. The results show a structural failure (change) in preferences suddenly in 2017 and after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. The results show that after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, the price of chicken meat has decreased and the price of fish has increased, so that chicken meat has changed from an attractive product to an inelastic product. This result shows that consumers have become dependent on chicken meat and are willing to pay more to buy it. In such a situation, it is important to have adequate and optimal monitoring of the price of chicken meat, because people are forced to pay any price for chicken meat, and the changes of this product can cause the consumption basket of urban households to fluctuate greatly. Also, the estimation of income elasticity shows that chicken meat has changed from a necessary commodity to a luxury commodity after the sanctions. Therefore, to support consumers, it will be the right decision to use income tools and policies that lead to increasing the liquidity of urban households.