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Futures Studies of Shia Political Islam Trends in Iran’s Political Geography
Salman Kazemian Souraki1 , Fereshteh Nasrollahi * 2, Amin Deilami Moazzi3
1- PhD student in Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Islamic Azad University, Chalous Branch, Mazandaran, Iran
2- Assistant Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Islamic Azad University Chalus Branch, Mazandaran , fereshteh5470@chmail.ir
3- Assistant Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Islamic Azad University Chalous Branch, Mazandaran, Iran
Abstract:   (103 Views)
Shia political Islam, centered around Iran, is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that has undergone numerous transformations in recent decades. Understanding the future trends of this intellectual and political movement is of great importance to analysts, politicians, and the general public. This article employs a futures studies approach to examine the trends of Shia political Islam within Iran's political geography. This foresight approach allows us to look beyond the current situation and outline various scenarios for the future of politics and society in Iran. The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical, utilizing library and documentary sources, including qualitative and quantitative analysis of historical data, expert interviews, and content analysis of media and religious texts. The research findings indicate that Shia political Islam in Iran's geography is undergoing a period of transformation, influenced by various factors such as demographic changes, social and economic developments, and geopolitical shifts. Several potential scenarios for the future of Shia political Islam in Iran's political geography are presented, including: the Continuity Scenario, the Reform Scenario, the Radicalism Scenario, and the Secularism Scenario. Considering these scenarios, the analysis of probable trends and events in the scenarios, and political and security developments with a view to challenges and opportunities in the Middle East region, the Islamic Republic of Iran, adhering to the Continuity Scenario along with the Reform Scenario, aims to strengthen republicanism (religious democracy) while emphasizing the preservation of independence and indigenous Islamic identity in the region, and to have a more prominent presence in the Middle East.
 
Keywords: Futures Studies, Political Islam, Shia Political Islam, Islamic Revolution of Iran, Middle East.
     
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Political geography
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