Journal of Applied Research in Geographical Sciences

Simulation of Temperature Changes in the western half of Iran during (1960-2100) by using reanalysis datasets and RCP8.5 Models

Hossin Asakereh

The purpose of this research is to identify changes in the temperature trend in the western half of Iran. For this purpose, monthly temperature data of 15 synoptic stations were collected during 1960-2010. Quality control was applied on these data by applying Pettit, SNHT, Buishand and Von Neumann’s tests. Later data Simulated and compared with reanalysis data such as ERA-Interim, ERA-20C, NCEP and CMIP5 models (RCP8.5 for the period 1960-2100). Trends were calculated by the Mean Kendall test and the Sen’s estimator (95 % confidence level). Based on the results obtained from all models, a significant positive trend was observed in spring, summer and autumn, and only in winter according to ERA-Interim. Based on CMIP5 results for the period 2050-2100 values between 2 and 4 ° C/100 achieved, which is lower than the results of other models for the period 1979-2010. Considering the CMIP5 models and their overall average in the study area, an increase in annual temperature (7 ° C /100) for the second half of the 21st century was confirmed.

Evaluation of land use compatibility in rural areas in terms of the desirability of location Case study: Binalood County

Amin Faal Jalali

the analysis of land use utility matrix based on human and natural criteria in residential areas is the necessity and issues that planners in urban and rural areas in terms of access to communication network, central location, weather, noise and etc are a turning point for how optimal use is of resources. the aim of this study is to identify the level of user desirability in rural areas of Binaluod county. in this study, 14 user groups with 52 % of land use terms of central location, access to communication network, smell, facilities and equipment, slope, air, sound and vision were investigated. the present study is descriptive - analytical and data collection were collected in the field method by 48 local experts in eight villages. the results show that based on the four alternatives (4: Completely desirable and 1: totally undesirable) the bakery users with an average of 3/99 and the gymnasium with an average of 4 have made the highest compatibility in terms of the desirability of the location and land of the historic tank with /38 and the dilapidated housing with 3/40. Also, the average utilization rate of land use in the village of Zashk 3/74, in the village of Dehno 3/82, in the village of Jagherz, 3/78, in the village of Abedeh Alya, 3/89, in the village of Nochah equaled 3/92, in the village of Hesar Golestan 3/76, In the village of Hesar Sorkh 3.79 and finally in the village of Ruhni, the utility rate was 3.80. the results show that despite the wide range of land use changes outside the context of study villages, the level of land use within the rural fabric is desirable in terms of quality of high - order location, 3/81.

Modeling of River Sediment Estimation Using Artificial Neural Network Method (Case Study: Vanai River)

Aghil Madadi

The purpose of this study was to estimate the amount of sediment of Vanai River in Borujerd. In this research, the characteristics of the sub-basins of this river have been extracted first. These specifications include the physical characteristics of the sub-basins, including the area, the environment and length of the waterways, and the characteristics of the river flow, and its sediment content. In the following, multivariate linear regression, multilevel prefabricated neural network (MLP) and radial function-based neural network (RBF) models are used to model sediment estimation. After estimating the model, the mean square error index (RMSE) was used to compare the models and select the best model. Evidence has shown that initially the MLP's neural network model had the best estimate with the lowest error rate (90.44) and then the RBF model (151.44) among the three models. The linear regression model has the highest error rate because only linear relationships between variables are considered.

Spatial Analysis of Disability Status Case Study: Cities of Ardabil Province

alireza mohammadi

According to statistics, about 300,000 disabled people live in Iran. There are about 25,738 disabled people in Ardabil province. This calls for attention to macro-planning for the disabled. This planning involves cognitive and spatial analysis of the status of the disabled people in different parts of the country. The purpose of this study was to analyze more precisely the situation of the spatial dispersion of the disabled and their relationship with different regions of the cities of Ardabil to address further the problems of accessing urban services and creating better living conditions for people with disabilities. In the present study, indicators such as age, gender, the status of residence, type and severity of disability, marital status, education and employment were analyzed using spatial statistics analysis. Also, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model has been used to measure the relationship between the extent of development and disability. Findings of the research show that there is no relationship between the extent of development and disability in Ardabil province. The number of disabled males is higher than that of the disabled females in all cities. Disabled people in Ardabil province are young and 91.55% of them are illiterate and close to 96.74% of them are facing unemployment problems. In almost all cities of Ardabil province (73.98), there are severe to very severe disabilities and there is no specific order among different cities in the province of Ardabil regarding the type of disability, and various disabilities have been dispersed in the province.

Spatial Analysis of Flood Hazard in Nirchay River Basin Using HEC-HMS Model and and fuzzy logic

fariba sfandyary darabad

Floods are one of the most abundant and destructive natural disasters that every year are caused heavy losses of life and property. Due to human activity in river systems and construction in rivers, flood damage has an upward trend. One of the most important actions to reduce flood damage is the provision of flood hazard zoning maps and their use in spatial planning. In this study, the risk of flood in the Nirchay River Basin that located Ardebil province was investigated. For this purpose, the HEC-HMS model was used to simulate rainfall-runoff and to identify flood zones and fuzzy logic in order to overlay the layers and prepare a flood hazard zoning map.The simulation results show the high performance of the HEC-HMS model in simulating rainfall-runoff of the Nirchay River Basin and estimating peak flood discharges. Rainfall conversion to runoff at the Nirchay River Basin controlled by slope and land-use.The most runoff height and peak flow in Nirchay River Basin are located in the upstream sub-basins. This is due to the steep, low permeability soil, frequency impervious surfaces and high CN. The combination of layers using fuzzy logic has shown that about 8.6% of the surface of the basin are located with a high risk of flooding. These zones are located mainly on the floodplain of the Nirchay Basin. Due to the Low valley width and low slope, these lands are always at flood risk. Most settlements in the study area are located at downstream of the basin. This has increased the risk of flooding.

Investigating the Indices of Social Capital and its Relationship with Sustainable Urban Development

esmaiel safaralizadeh

the development of sustainable urban development depends on providing relative prosperity, citizen participation and increasing social awareness for all members of society. The purpose of this paper is to measure social capital indices and its relationship with sustainable urban development in urban areas of Ahwaz. The present study is a descriptive-correlational one from a methodological point of view. From a single point of view, it is based on structural equations which has been done in Ahwaz in 2018. In this regard, library studies have been used to explain the literature and theoretical foundations and field method has been used to study the case study. Data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire. Structural equation modeling and confirmatory factor analysis were used to analyze the descriptive-inferential statistics data and SPSS and Amos software were used. The statistical population of the study was 384 citizens of Ahwaz city and the sampling method was random. The results of this paper showed that social capital and Sustainable Urban Development status are different between Ahwaz city areas. In other words, high social capital among the citizens of Ahwaz is a means of enhancing the sustainable urban development and structural dimensions of the city including economy, community, institutions, space and environment. The implications of this research for the strong link between social capital and sustainable urban development, the need to pay attention to the components of social capital and to adopt policies to maintain, enhance and enhance social capital to ensure sustainable urban development in the geographical area of Ahvaz. It looks great.

Modeling and assessment of new urbanist principles in center neighborhoods in Kashan

Mohsen Shaterian

The most important problem of the worn- ut context in urban is that these textures can not meet the needs of contemporary life. This can be of tissue due to the specific characteristics of a rare opportunity to play an effective role in sustainable development, one of the main strategies in this area can be a new urbanism approach. The aim of this study is to evaluate the principles of new urbanism is in the neighborhood of the central city of Kashan. The research method is analytical and is the main tool for data collection was a questionnaire. The sample size of 382 was calculated by the formula. To analyze the results of the questionnaire T-test through SPSS software is used for modeling equations using Amos software. The results suggest that indicators of modernity in the city of Kashan in central areas is not desirable, but a significant difference in terms of modern urban indicators in both new and old tissue there. The principles of modernism in town, the stand by weight of the total facade nodal regression 0.98 has most effective and the index of participation due to lack of poll officials on matters related to the principles of new urbanism is a minimal role in the neighborhood.

Monitoring Land Cover Changes in Past 32 Years Using Remote Sensing Technique (Case Study: Pishva Town, Tehran)

Marzieh Alikhah Asl

Study of resources changes in previous years could be useful in the planning and optimal using of resources to control inappropriate changes. Because land use changes occur on large-scale, remote sensing technique is a useful and valuable tool for monitoring the changes. The aim of this research is land cover changes detection in a period of 32 years in Pishva town with using remote sensing technique .First TM, ETM and OLI images for the years 1986, 2002 and 2018 were collected respectively and after geometric and radiometric corrections, images were classified by using maximum likelihood classification methods. Kappa and overall indexes were used to calculate classification accuracy. Results showed in past 32 years, bare land and irrigated land have decreased while residential and greenhouse areas have increased. Classification accuracy showed that OLI, ETM and TM sensors have high accuracy respectively with kappa 0.96, 0.80 and 0.76 and also overall indexes of 97.56, 86.54 and 86 percent. Based on results, in the first period (1986-2002) 27.6%, in the second period (2002-2018) 29.60% and in the third period (1986-2018) 31.8% of area land cover have been changed. Results showed land cover changes in the area is related to climate changes like low precipitation, drought and social condition like population and food need increasing and economic condition like high production and efficiency.

Investigation of granulometric parameters in wind erosion studies (Case study:Gonabad)

Abolghasem Amirahmadi

The purpose of this research is to use granulometric analyzes in desertification studies in Gonabad city, To achieve this goal, after the preparation of geomorphological maps of the region, 14 sediment samples were taken from the erosion-sensitive facies of the region. In the laboratory, a series of sieve with a diameter of 2000, 1000, 500, 250, and 64 micrometers, and a container Gatherings of sediment smaller than 64 μm were screened. The results showed that the highest frequency of particle diameter in sand samples was in the 250-225 micron class. And, given the average particle relationship with their transport intervals, it can be concluded that the distance between the particles was close to a point. Variants of different samples varied from 1.502 to 1.319. The most prevalent plots of ridge and the smallest slopes with low slope were the highest. In surveys in the skidding section, precipitates were mostly positive tilted, indicating the prevalence of fine particles in the region.

Assessment of land cover/land use changes using object-oriented processing of satellite imageries (1985-2015) in the Rozechai Watershed of Urmia

Raoof Mostafazadeh

Also, because of human activities and natural phenomena, the face of the earth has always undergone a change. Therefore, for optimal management of natural areas, awareness of the ratio of land cover/land use changes is a necessity. Therefore, extraction of land use maps as the most important goal in the management of the natural resource can be considered. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate land cover/ land use changes at the Rozechai Watershed during the period of 30-years 1985-2015 using Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 satellite imageries such as TM and ETM+ sensors; plus, land use maps were prepared using TerrSet software and object-oriented classification in 1985 and 2000 years. As well as the land use map of procurement by the geographical organization in 2015 has been used. The results show that rangelands level has the highest percentage among all land use types during the period of 30 years, but between 1985 and 2000, and 2000 to 2015, the level of rangelands has a decreasing trend indicating the destruction trend in the region of the replacement of moderate- poor rangelands and good rangeland by dry farming. Also, the tables of obtained from the error matrix indicate that the observed values in the diameter of the error matrix are much larger than the values outside the diameters. Thus, the overall accuracy for the years 1985, 2000, and 2015 were 97, 90 and 96 percent, and The values of Kappa index were 91%, 84% and 94% respectively, indicating a high degree of accuracy in the object-oriented approach to classification.

Study of the models of large-scale atmospheric circulation system model on intesify rainfall in Ardebil plain

Boroumand Salahi

Atmospheric circulation is important to determine the surface climate and environment, and affect regional climate and surface features. In this study, to quantify its effect, the classification system, developed by Lamb is applied to obtain circulation information for Ardabil, North West Province in Iran, on a daily basis, and is a method to classify synoptic weather for study area. For that purpose, daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) for extreme precipitation days from 1971 to 2007 is used to derive six circulation indices and to provide a circulation catalogue with 27 circulation types. The frequency of circulation types over different periods is computed and described. Five circulation types are most recognised in this study: E, SE, A, C and CSE. The catalogue and the associated indices provide a tool to interpret the regional climate and precipitation, and deal with the linkage between the mean extreme regional precipitations in north western of Iran and the large-scale circulation. Five circulation types E, A, SE, C and CSE are associated with high precipitation and rainy seasons (spring and September) but the most precipitation rate is resulted of cyclone family. Low pressure of north latitudes and central area of Iran with low pressure of gang from Pakistan and India. SE is almost dominant circulation type over the years. The cold season started from august to march is characterized by frequent directional flows, especially E, SE, A, C and CSE whereas in warm period (Apr–Aug) SE, NE, AE have smaller role, especially in July, August and September more frequent flows dominated by SE and E.

The Role of Policies Governing Urban Land Development in Sari

Hossein Mojtaba zadeh Khanghahi

Land is the most important factor in the physical development of cities; land management has now become one of the most important concerns and concerns of local governments. Also, the sprawling growth of cities has degraded the environment and natural resources around the cities. Meanwhile, due to inadequate and accelerated decision-making, some of the inner-city and inter-contextual capacity of cities for development or redevelopment has been overlooked by urban managers. Cities play an important role in the economic growth of each country, with nearly 60 percent of the GDP of developing countries being produced in cities. They are the main engines of the growth of each country's national economy. The present study attempts to investigate the decision-making patterns of urban land policies in the physical development of Sari. The type of research method is descriptive-analytical and it is of applied nature. The findings of the study indicate that the lack of a clear vision and consequently uncoordinated policies and institutions, centralized and non-cooperative decision making, and excessive tenure without the necessary institutional capacity are the most important reasons for the inefficiency of urban land management policy. Therefore, the appropriate model of government policy in urban land management is integrated urban land management based on clear and necessary vision formulation. Expressing a one-piece strategic policy, and delegating part of the government's powers to the lowest level of local institutions with more specific capacity building, government intervention in the four areas of land management, land use, taxation and construction must be consistent and consistent. Since the government does not have the institutional capacity to perform such verification, it is limited to policymaking and oversight to achieve the policy goals and fulfills part of its verification duties in each of the four domains whilst capacity building the necessary training courses. It moves step by step with the policies adopted to the lowest level of local institutions

Investigation the Citizen's Satisfaction from the elements of sense of belonging (Case study: Golha Residential Complex of Rasht)

Matin Farzidi

Nowadays, the lack of attachment is a significant point in the construction of towns, which is demonstrated with criteria such as lack of environmental attraction and visual qualities, lack of readability, security, and so on. These factors will affect people's relationship with the environment around them and thus their satisfaction. Golha Town faces numerous problems including lack of space for gatherings, lack of security and space confusion, inadequacy of appearance of the newly constructed buildings in relation to older monuments, and most importantly the existence of empty and unused land. The method used in this research is combinational including a set of descriptive-analytical methods. Data collection is performed using field and documentary methods. The statistical sample of the study was considered to be 384 people, based on the population of Rasht city. By distributing 420 questionnaires, 386 correct questionnaires were answered and returned. Analysis of questionnaires was performed by SPSS software. Measurement of selectivity, permeability and readability was also accomplished using the space syntax method and integration and connectivity analysis on the road adjacent to Golha town. The results showed that the impact of criteria such as readability, security and permeability was moderate. Visual proportions, elemental functions and access have a great effect on increasing the satisfaction of residents. As a result, the use of architectural patterns, considering pausing and moving spaces, creation of management applications, prevention of mass construction and indoor parks, are among the solutions to create the desired increase in satisfaction.

Investigation and evaluation of economic variables affecting the national power of countries

Mohammad Reza HafezNia

The national strength of algebraic aggregation is a large number of positive and negative factors that are composed of numerous sources and resources. One of the important sources of national power in the world today and in the post-Cold War period is economic power, which is itself the bedrock of other superstructures, such as political, military, and so on. This research uses descriptive-analytical method and using library resources and field research to answer this question. What are the most important variables and indicators that shape economic power of countries? The findings of the research by examining library documents show that the four main components of economic power including infrastructure, production exchange, production level and financial resources can affect economic power. Meanwhile, 61 variables related to quadruple components were identified. Then, by using the Likert spectrum questionnaire, internal knowledge was measured to measure the importance of each of these variables. Accordingly, economic infrastructure, high-tech exports, food imports and international currency reserves were of high importance. On the other hand, variables such as the share of the poor in the consumption of national income, economic competition, foreign ownership, and commercial costs of violent crimes were of minor importance. Finally, it can be argued that countries have an obligation to take into account the factors and variables in the economic dimension to achieve their national interests and interests.

Measuring the level of awareness for sustainable development in rural construction (Case Study: Guilan Architecture)

Ali Asgharzadeh

The main goal of sustainable development in the village are use to social, economic and environmental resources and capacities. Awareness for sustainable development is a subject that has been less discussed. Accordingly, rural assets and funds can be the basis for achieving the goals of sustainable rural development. The purpose of this paper is to measure awareness for sustainable development in rural construction in Guilan province. This research is developmental and surveying. In this study, which was done by the architects of Guilan Construction Engineering Organization, the data collection method was used to answer the research questions, using both documentary (secondary data) and survey (primary data) and Questionnaire with Likert spectrum. Using Cronbach's alpha formula in SPSS software, the reliability of different parts of the research questionnaire was 0.802 to 0.816.

Spatio-temporal trend and change detection of temperature and precipitation of Kashafroud basin

Mahmood Azari

The study of meteorological characteristics and its variability is important in assessing the climate change impacts for water resources management. Trend analysis of hydrological and meteorological time series is a method for determining the change in climate variables that is performed with different parametric and non-parametric methods. In this research, the annual, seasonal and monthly trends were analyzed regarding rainfall and temperature time series for 1986-2017 in 28 stations of Kashafroud basin in the Northeast of Iran. For this purpose, the annual, seasonal and monthly trends were evaluated using non-parametric Mann Kendall and Pettitt test at 95% level significance. The results showed the trend for the monthly maximum temperature in spring and winter and also the annual trend for all stations was increasing, whereas the summer and autumn pattern differed. The trend of minimum temperature in all seasons and stations do not have a uniform pattern. The results of precipitation trend indicated that the annual precipitation of the basin had not changed and did not have a significant trend in 5% level of significance. Precipitation of the basin in the winter decreased. There was an increasing trend in the Southern half of the basin in autumn. The noticeable decrease of precipitation in winter season especially during January and February with an increase in November can be a serious challenge for water resource management of basin during the dry season.

Analysis the Spatial Dynamics of Aloe Vera Medicinal Plants in Climate Change condition. Case: Hormozgan Province

Morteza Khodagholi

The main purpose of this research is to test the agglium of Hormozgan province for the development and development of aloe vera plant cultivars in the base period and the period of change. In this regard, the influential data in the various stages of the aloe vera plant, including the minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation, as climatic agents and height variables, gradients, direction of gradient, soil, as stable elements in the evaluation of aloe vera cultivation areas were used. The multidimensional decision-making technique in the GIS environment was used using fuzzy gamma function for interruption and eventually identifying appropriate arenas for aloe vera plant. The role of climatic changes in two levels of alteration of B1 and A2 was investigated to evaluate changes in Aloe Vera cultivation agriculum in Hormozan province. The results of the implementation of the Fuzzy Gama integration function in Hormozgan province showed that in the base period, 0.35 of the area of the province has good and excellent culture for this plant. These areas are generally consistent with the lowlands of the southern sections of the southern province and are consistent with the soils with tissue and depth and drainage, namely, the arid soils of Sevil and anti-Seville, while in the northern parts of the province, the supply factor, supply The need for an aloe vera plant, tolerance in the year and nightly, the product performance is very weak and the development of aloe vera farms in these areas is not recommended. In the simulated climatic conditions for 2070 under the 2ndretic scenarios, aloe vera arenas will have relatively significant changes compared to the climate of the base period, so that the most variations related to the A2 scenario, in which poorly functional floors are lacking. And moderate culture capabilities have been exposed to an area of 30 to 40 percent, while the two floors of the agricultiva capability and good culture capabilities, under the same system, will show an increase of 20 to 40 percent.

Investigating the Views of Urban Streets in terms of Citizens' Perception (Case Study: Pedestrian May 15, Tehran)

fariba alborzi

Analysis of the views of urban buildings is important in order to identify effective components in the perception of the audience. By conducting studies on existing buildings, we can provide appropriate strategies for organizing urban views. This article tries to provide a framework for measuring urban streets from the perspective of the perception of citizens and, on the other hand, promoting the quality of urban views and increasing the perception of citizens. Based on the method of analysis, the study of global and internal studies of the conceptual model is developed, which provides factors affecting the perception of citizens from the view. Also, based on the studied method, the reliability of the Tehran Center's leaders, due to the presence of early qualities and emphasis on the presence of citizens' for the study, has been selected to provide realistic understanding of the factors affecting the perception of urban street view. According to field views, initial dialogue and conceptual model, targeted questionnaires were prepared and to find the hidden relationships of the variables, and the comparative comparison of citizens and experts to analyze the information of the questionnaires, SPSS software has been used. General components of perceptual modeling, from the perspective Architectural and urban design experts were measured and then based on the special model of the questionnaire, the questionnaire was developed. The questionnaire and interview were accompanied by the perceptions of the recognition and perception of citizens and directly with the audience of this axis. The goal is to identify the main components and prioritize perceptual components from the mental perspective of citizens. The results show that the main components of perceiveness of urban views, impact components, unity, coordination, attachment to location, diversity and attractiveness of the perception and recognition of the traditional view of the fifteen Khordads are effective.

Function of boundary rivers in hydropolitics cooperation:Danube river study

Murad Kaviani Rad

International rivers, as borders or crossing national borders, have been considered as a significant part of international relations. Especially, approximately half of the world's population lives within the basin of these rivers, and more than 90% are living in countries with these basins. This condition, by creating an undeniable relationship of interdependence, has made water a critical issue for these countries. Thus, as populations and economies grow and develop and national water resources are exploited for additional growth and development, government action and reaction to a higher share of these transnational sources will increase. By the way, the type of government interaction in line with exploiting these common resources includes a wide range of cooperation to tension and war. In some parts of the world, common water resources in the form of rivers have used as a linking factor between nations and governments. So that, instead of conflict, the beneficiary countries take the path of cooperation and convergence and they have taken important steps with regard to the development of the region as optimal management of common water resources. Although the achievement of international cooperation is a long, lengthy and complex path, always, there are many ways to follow, many steps to take, and many options for appraisal and selection. The current research is a descriptive-analytical research and by means of library resources and examining the practical status of cooperation in a part of the Danube River as a model, concluded that cooperation was not just for water agreements and factors such as environmental concerns, regional security, regional benefits (such as joining organizations and ::union::s), mediation (governments, international organizations, and institutions), etc., are effective in this process.

Investigating the effect of sense of security and perceived value on tourists' spatial attachment Case Study (Zanjan Province)

Homa doroudi

This study was designed to investigate the impact of perceived security and perceived value on tourists' spatial attachment. The present study is of applied purpose and of descriptive-analytical method. Libraries and field methods were used to collect the required data and data. The statistical population of the study consisted of tourists coming to Zanjan province. The sample size of the study was estimated to be 384 people using Cochran formula. The reliability of the questionnaire was measured by Cronbach's alpha and the combined reliability coefficient (Cr). The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by face and expert validity and divergent validity by calculating the mean variance index. SPSS and LISREL were used for data analysis. The results showed that the sense of security and perceived value had a significant and positive effect on tourists' spatial attachment.

Assessment of environmental capabilities and capabilities of Tarom city for olive production and cultivation

Vahid Riahi

Land surveying to increase crop production and productivity is nowadays considered as one of the alternative approaches in agricultural development and the need to address this issue especially in rural areas where their income is highly dependent on agriculture is of great importance. Is high. Agricultural development is one of the priorities of agricultural planning and requires such development to identify the effective factors that govern it. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and evaluate the environmental capabilities of olive cultivation in Tarom city and to analyze the location of its producing rural areas. Hence, from altitude, slope and slope status as terrestrial parameters and three climate parameters as relative rainfall, temperature and relative humidity data from 11 meteorological, synoptic and rain gauge stations with appropriate statistical period (1375-1395) and A common time base was used for climatic zoning. The results showed that Tarom city is in good condition for olive cultivation, 21.2% of the total area of the study area is suitable for olive cultivation, most of which is located in the middle districts of the city. Located in olive-growing lands, these areas produce 74.8 percent of the olive in Tarom, due to its olive-growing potential.

Analysis and study of Future atmospheric hazards in Sistan region

Alireza Entezari

Today climate change cause increase in concentration of greenhouse gases has been cause increase extreme events and atmospheric hazards. goal of this research, analyze and review climate future is for atmospheric hazards in sistan region. In this study, to simulate minimum and maximum temperature data used from model data CanESM2 under three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with SDSM statistical scrolling and to simulate rainfall data from the Hadcm3 model under scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) with statistical scrolling LARS-WG. For this purpose, after calibration, validation and data modeling at the selected station, the performance of the model from the viewpoint of the compliance of the base temperature data (1984-2005) and rainfall (1986-2015) with simulation values (2020-2039) evaluated at a significant level of confidence. To adapt base data to simulated data Used of the three criteria root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE). According to simulated data were examined four important atmospheric hazard frost, heat waves, extreme precipitation and drought. The results showed that heat waves and drought in the future are serious threats in the region So that in 2021, under release scenario RCP 2.6, Predicted 32 heat waves and the study area will experience more than five heat waves in the year. In addition, most frequent drought forecast in 2020, under release scenario A1B. Extreme precipitation in some years under scenario B1 can be significant threat in the region. Intensity and abundance annual frost under release scenario RCP2.6 more than other scenarios and lower relative to investigated atmospheric threats.

Explaining the models of cultural tourism development in Iran

Hamideh Reshadat jo

One of the main ways to preserve the traditions and values of the past for future generations is to preserve the culture of the community, which can be addressed by the prosperity of tourism in cities. One of the main ways to preserve the traditions and values of the past for future generations is to preserve the culture of the community, which can be addressed by the prosperity of tourism in cities.The purpose of this study is to explain the models of cultural tourism development in Iran. In the quantitative part of this research, in terms of controlling the studied variables, it is non-experimental, in terms of strategic survey and in terms of the nature of this research is applied. In relation to the research method, it seeks to identify the relationships between cultural tourism and the factors affecting it using the structural equation system. The nature of research is causal research. Considering the application of structural equation modeling to study and analyze the conceptual model of the research, the method of this research is correlational and variance-covariance matrix analysis. The statistical population in the quantitative section was all employees and managers of the Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization. In the quantitative part, the sampling method is stratified. Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size. Based on this, 383 samples were estimated. The tool of this research was a researcher-made questionnaire. To determine the validity and validity of the questionnaire, content validity as well as structural validity were used to determine the validity of the questionnaire. The reliability of the research was analyzed using Cronbach's alpha test. The results of quantitative analysis showed that social indicators have the greatest impact among the leading indicators of cultural tourism in the country.

An analysis of the role of non-governmental organizations in improving the urban management system from the perspective of the citizens of the metropolis of Tehran

alireza shichaslami

In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the role of non-governmental organizations in improving the urban management system of Tehran metropolis in six physical, functional, social, economic, environmental and institutional dimensions. The research method was descriptive-analytical and the data collection method was documentary and survey. The research tool was a questionnaire. The statistical population of the study was the citizens of Tehran and the sample size was 383 people. The data were analyzed using T-test and confirmatory factor analysis. The results show that the level of significance in all dimensions is lower than 0.05; Therefore, according to the average scores, NGOs in Tehran have mainly played a greater role in the social and environmental dimensions and in the economic and institutional dimensions in the form of an intermediary relationship between urban management and citizens. In the framework of confirmatory factor analysis, comparison of explanatory variance by six factors showed that social, environmental, functional, physical, economic and institutional factors have the highest variance in explaining the role of factors in the urban management system of Tehran. A total of 20 main factors in explaining the role of semen were confirmed; Thus, it was found that the Samanids, given that they are in direct contact with citizens, can accurately reflect urban issues and realities to the urban management system; For this purpose, it is suggested that first, according to their different functions, the subdivisions should be classified into specialized subdivisions on various urban issues, and also their position in the urban management system should be upgraded.