Comparative analysis of snowfall events in Iran with emphasis on the location of the polar plateau and remote connection patterns
Abstract
Extream snowfall event that may occur at any time during the cold season, has significant social and economic implications. Therefore, the economic and social consequences of these events reveal the importance of identifying the synoptical mechanisms associated with the extream snowfall events. In order to achieve this goal, using daily precipitation and temperature data during the statistical period of 1951-1 2016 and based on multiple criteria, the two three-days extream snowfall events were identified during February 7-9, 1972 and February 2-4, 1988. After selecting samples, a statistical analysis of the teleconnection indices was done and then, using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, the combined patterns of surface and lower, middle and lower troposphere were plotted in the form of three-days mean. Results obtained from analysis of teleconnection indices and their correspondence to the synoptic patterns indicate the weakening of the tropospheric polar vortex and its division into multi-centers in the periods of extream snowfall events. In the event of February 7-9, 1972, though the centers were moved to mid-latitudes, but they are not completely out of the Arctic and to some extent maintain their position in this area. In February 2-4, 1988, the vortex centers have shown a more equatorwards displacement towards the mid-latitudes that the emergence of negative phases of the NAM and AO represent such a situation. However, in both events, the strong and main center of the polar vortex is located in the eastern hemisphere and therefore in a state close to Iran. The weakening of the sub-tropical jetstream in the eastern hemisphere, especially in the Mediterranean, has resulted in the transmission of potential vorticity tabs to mid-latitudes. The equatorwards progress of these tabs has led to the formation of the trough in the western and eastern Mediterranean regions that accompany with a ridge between them, led to the formation of omega bundle patterns and split flow, respectively, in the events of February 1972 and 1988 in this geographical area. The southern boundary of the progress of the troughs has specified by index contour of the edge of the vortex by 552 gpdam, that extends to the southern part of Iran and in the February 1972, event compared with the pattern of the February 1988, had the more-equatorwards progress toward the middle latitudes, and as a result, over Iran.
Keywords: extream snowfall event, teleconnection, polar vortex, the edge of the vortex, blocking patterns.
