Journal of Spatial Analysis

---

Drought is the most important natural disaster, due to its widespread and comprehensive short and long term consequences. Several meteorological drought indices have been offered to determine the features. These indices are generally calculated based on one or more climatic elements. Due to ease of calculation and use of available precipitation data, SPI index usually was calculated for any desired time scale and it’s known as one of the most appropriate indices for drought analysis, especially analysis of location. In connection time changes, most studies were largely based on an analysis of trends and changes in environment but today special attention is to the variability and spatial autocorrelation. In this study we tried to analyze drought zones in the North West of Iran, using the approach spatial analysis functions of spatial statistics and detecting spatial autocorrelation relationship, due to repeated droughts in North West of Iran and the involvement of this area in the natural disaster.

In this study, the study area is North West of Iran which includes the provinces of Ardebil, West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan. In this study, the 20-year average total monthly precipitation data (1995-2014) was used for 23 stations in the North West of Iran. In this study, to study SPI drought index, the annual precipitation data of considered stations were used. According to the statistical gaps in some studied meteorological stations, first considered statistics were completed. The correlation between the stations and linear regression model were used to reconstruct the statistical errors. Stations annual precipitation data for each month, were entered into Excel file for the under consideration separately and then these files were entered into Minitab software environment and the correlation between them was obtained to rebuild the statistical gaps. Using SPI values drought and wet period’s region were identified and zoning drought was done using ordinary kriging interpolation method with a variogram Gaussian model with the lowest RMS error. Using appropriate variogram, cells with dimensions of 5_×5km were extended to perform spatial analysis on the study area. With the establishment of spatial data in ARC GIS10.3 environment, Geostatistic Analyze redundant was used to Interpolation analysis Space and Global Moran's autocorrelation in GIS software and GeoDa was used to reveal the spatial relationships of variables.

The results showed that most studied stations are relatively well wet and this shows the accuracy of the results of the SPI index. Validation results of the various models revealed that Ordinary Kriging interpolation method with a variogram Gaussian model best explains the spatial distribution of drought in North West of Iran. So, using the above method the stations data interpolation related to SPI index in North West of Iran was done. The results showed that Moran index values for the analysis of results of standardized precipitation index (SPI) in all studied years, is more than 0.95. Since Moran’s obtained values are positive close to 1, it can be concluded that drought, in the North West of Iran during the statistical period has high spatial autocorrelation cluster pattern of 90, 95 and 99 percent. Results also showed that in all the years of study, Moran's global index is more than 0.95 percent. This type of distributed data suggests that spatial distribution patterns of drought in North West of Iran changes in multiple scales and distances from one distance to another and from scale to another and this result shows special space differences in different distances and scales in this region of the country. Results also showed that drought in North West of Iran in 2008 is composed of two parts: Moderate drought in parts of West and North West region (stations of Maku, Khoy, Salmas, Urmia, naghadeh, Mahabad and Piranshahr) and severe drought in the southeastern part of the study area (stations: Sarab, Khalkhal, Takab, Tabriz and Mianeh). So the pattern of cluster drought in the North West of Iran in 2008 is on the first and fourth quarter. The results of this index showed that drought and rain periods are similar in the studied stations. The results of the application of Moran's index about identifying spatial distribution of drought patterns showed that The values of the different years during the period,  have a positive a positive coefficient close to 1 (Moran's I> 0.959344) and this shows that the spatial distribution of drought is clustered. The results of the standard score Z values and the P-Value proved the clustering of spatial distribution of drought.

The results of the analysis of G public value, In order to ensure the existence of areas with clusters of high and low values showed that The stations of Maku, Khoy, Salmas, Urmia, naghadeh, Mahabad, Piranshahr and Parsabad follow the moderate drought pattern in the region and are significant at the 0.99 level. Jolfa station also has a mild drought of 0.95 percent confidence level and for Sardasht station is significant in 0.90 percent. High drought pattern in Sarab, Khalkhal, Takab, Tabriz and Mianeh stations was significant in 0.99 percent level and also for Ardabil, Sahand and Maragheh stations very high drought pattern was significant in 0.95 percent level and for Meshkinshahr and Ahar high drought pattern is significant in 0.90 percent. By detection of clusters of drought and rain in the North West of Iran using Moran’s spatial analysis technique and G general statistics a full recognition of the drought affected areas in this region can be obtained and take the necessary measures in its management 

---

Drought is a natural occurrence that occurs repeatedly or alternately and is likely to occur in almost every kind of climatic event. Also, the distinction between this phenomenon and other natural disasters is that unlike other disasters, this phenomenon gradually over a relatively long period of time to act and its effects may be delayed after a few years and more than any other natural disaster appears. Several indicators have been presented to decide the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological drought. These indicators are generally based on one or more climatic elements. The SPI and SWI indicators are similar in terms of ease in calculations and results, and use monthly precipitation data and monthly spatial data rates. The simultaneous effect of meteorological droughts on groundwater levels rarely happens. Therefore, the present study investigates the effect of meteorological droughts on the groundwater level of Marand plain and calculates the time delay of drought on groundwater level.
The study area in this study is Marand Plain in East Azarbaijan Province. In this research, we used meteorological data (average monthly rainfall) of 7 rain gauge stations during the statistical period (1980-2012), and the monthly water level data of 23 piezometric wells during the statistical period (2001-2011). The correlation between stations and piezometric wells and linear regression method was used to reconstruct the statistical defects, then SPI and SWI indices were used to study the rainfall and groundwater changes process and the analysis of drought conditions in the meteorological and underground watersheds. The SPI index is basically calculated for periods of 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months. Also, the standardized water level indicator (SWI) has been used as a criterion for assessing occur drought and wet years in the Marand plain. The purpose of the SWI index is to allow zoning of groundwater level fluctuations at the study area. Extraction of drought and wet year intensities in different scales and basin zonation for drought maps in Marand plain was first calculated by entering the monthly values in DIP software, SPI values for 12-month time series. SWI values were calculated from monthly data of piezometric stationary level surfaces, such as SPI values, with the help of DIP, Minitab and Excel software. Geostatistical Analyst was also used to decide the weather drought and groundwater drought periods for the ArcGIS software.
 
 
The results of the SPI values showed that meteorological drought is not of a definite local place, while groundwater droughts have not occurred randomly in the area and its concentration in the west of the aquifer is more than the east. Considering the increase in the area under cultivation, to compensate for the water needs of agricultural lands, an increase in the harvesting of underground water table has occurred in order to compensate for the need for water, indicating a tangible relationship between the rainfall and the level fluctuation in the Marand plain. Therefore, considering the increase in the area under cultivation during the years of drought in the region, the best correlation between them was -0.720 with a delay of 5 months, in order to investigate the effects of drought on the surface of the station, which was significant at 1% level It illustrates the impact of groundwater resources with a 5-month delay. Also, the results of the survey of monthly data of Marand plain surface during the statistical period (2001-2011) showed that the groundwater level of the plain had a negative trend that fell by about 2 meters.

---

 Investigating the effect of desert micro-organisms on vegetative traits and yield of grapevine in Shiraz
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
 Mineral aerosols as a pollution of atmosphere has become a global concern with environmental impacts on human, Vegetable and transportation system. Plants exposed to aerosol exhibit morphological and physiological changes. Dust particles is one of the aerosols in the atmosphere which deposits on the leaf of plants can alter their available light of photosynthesis. This interferes with gas exchange of CO₂ between the leaf and air of environment, and the reduction of leaf stomatal conductance. Finally reduction the yield of plants. Grapevines Vitis vinifera. Askari, are grown extensively in the Shiraz city. The period from March to July coincides with extensive shoot and fruit which these processes depend on environment conditions. Any stress reducing fruit set and leaf characterizes, will negatively affect grapevine productivity. Thus, the objective of this study was to examine the effects of dust deposits on grapevine leaves and to estimate the impact on vegetative traits and yield of grapevine.
 
Method
 Experiments were implemented on 36 grapevines V.vinifera L. cv. Askari in the form of RCBD with drip irrigation during 2017-2018 from late March to July when the buds grow until the harvest. Treatments included: T₁) artificial dust sprayed on canopy of vine by a manually operated duster, T₂) washing canopy of vines using well water in the field after spraying artificial dust, and T₃) control. Artificial dust particles were collected from uncultivated areas of Azadegan plain in Khuzestan province. To provide suitable fine particles, the soil was grinded, milled and sieved using a mesh size of 200 opening per inches. The physical and chemical tests were performed using an X-ray diffraction device. A dust chamber and a dust generator were constructed to simulate dust. A mechanical apparatus consisted of a 50-cm pipe and a ventilation fan was also used. The chamber was made of a plastic sheet with 2×2×1.5 m dimensions. To evaluate chlorophylls a and b concentration, used by spectrophotometer in wavelengths of 647 nm and 663 nm. Single Leaf Area Index (LAI) was calculated by image processing method Win-Area-Ut_10 system. The sugar content of grapes was determined by measuring the Refrectometer BME center index of their juice sugar. Also measured the RWC, fruit set percentage, Length of Branch Leaf Dry Weight and Yield.
 
Results
The mean of particle size was 10.6 μm and the chemical composition of these particles included Silicon Oxide, Sodium Sulfate, Na = 6.14 mg/L, K = 10.73 mg/L, Ca = 23.9 meq/L and Mg = 3.5 meq/L. Chlorophyll a and b content decreased by dust particles treatment in the throughout the phonological stages of grapevine and had a significantly different as compared to washing and control treatments. RWC was reduced in the dust treatment as compared to the washing and control treatment (P < 0.05). The maximum of Leaf Area Index (131 cm²) was obtained in the control and the minimum (86 cm²) was obtained in the dust treatment. The maximum percentage of fruit set was obtained in the washing treatment (24%). but, the lowest fruit set trait (18%) was found in the dust treatment. The highest TSS (22.7 %) was observed in the washing treatment and the lowest TSS (18.1%) was seen in the dust treatment. The difference among the numbers of berries among treatments was significant (P < 0.05). The highest and the lowest numbers of berries were observed in the washing treatment (87 berries per bunch) and the dust treatment (49 berries per bunch). The heaviest bunch was observed in the washing treatment (158.7 g), while the lightest bunch weight (100 g) was observed in the dust treatment which had significantly difference with control and washing treatments. The highest yield (22.5 kg/vine) was observed in the washing treatment and the lowest yield (7.9 kg/vine) was observed in the dust treatment, whereas control produced 19.5 kg/vine averagely.
 
Conclusion
It was found that dust accumulation on the surface of leaf grapevine Askari induces some physiological changes such as a reduction of photosynthetic pigments, relative water content and leaf area. Deposition of dust particles on flower of grape led to decrease of reproductive trait, but washing vine by water led to improvement of production. As a result, washing of vine also increased grape production as compared to the control treatment. According to the results, dust particles reduced fruit set by deposition on flower and they were identified as an environmental stress on grapevine. More importantly, the results revealed that yield of grapevine was adversely affected by dust deposits over a short interval of time during the fruit set. Therefore, the fruit set stage, in which the fruit is formed, was recognized as the most important stage in plant production. It was also found that removal of dust particles from the plant leaves by washing methods can reduce the effects of dust particles.
 
Keywords: Dust, Chlorophyll, Fruit, Sugar, Shiraz.
 
 
 

---

evapotranspiration is one of the most important components in water balance and management. In this research, to evaluate the effects of climate change on the amount of potential evapotranspiration in the southern part of the Aras River Basin using the downscaled data of the GFDL-ESM2M model in the CORDEX dynamic downscale under the RCP8.5 scenario during the period of 2021-2050 and its comparison. It is treated with the values ​​of the base period (1985-2005). Data with a horizontal resolution of 22 x 22 km from the GFDL-ESM2M model were used in this research. The findings of the research showed that the minimum and maximum temperature and, accordingly, the ETp of the future period will increase compared to the base period in all six studied stations of Aras Basin (Ardebil, Ahar, Jolfa, Khoi, Mako and Pars-Abad). The value of this minimum temperature increase is estimated between 1.4 and 3.8 ºC and for the maximum temperature between 1.7 and 2.2ºC. The range of annual ETp increase varies from 133 mm to 189 mm. In the monthly ETp scale of all stations from January to July with an increase between 3.9 and 1.64 mm and from August to December with a decrease of 0.7 to 38.2 mm. Estimating the increase of ETp in the future period in the basin, especially in the months of spring, which is very important in terms of water demand, requires special attention to the possibility of this estimated increase in the planning of the water and energy sector.