Journal of Spatial Analysis

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Considering that there are different forms of mass movements in the ChamGardlan watershed, especially along communication routes, agricultural and residential areas, it is necessary to create refugee maps Therefore, it is impossible to examine the factors influencing its situation in order to prevent and control this phenomenon. Therefore, during the field visits, geographical, physiography, land use, vegetation cover, soil, climatology, geography and geomorphology maps were produced in the GIS environment. The method of this research has been accomplished base of distinction of the geomorphological units while using aerial photos and crossing  basis maps. Then, the effective factors on the occuration of mass movements were studied using logistic regression equations. So that, the factors such as slope, geological formation type, pedologic, climatic, etc. were taked into consideration as independant variables, and mass movements occurance frequency as function of mentioned factors.The result indicated that the effective factors related to frequency of land sliding happening in the area in arrangement, are slope, geological formation type and mass  movements  type (both kind and amount of salts in soil) and also landuse.
 

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The old textures of Semnan are part of the body and body of this city and It has physical, functional, economic and cultural values ​​that with capabilities and talents potential, is considered a national capital. This body and structure are exposed to fundamental threats and requires the diagnosis of issues, challenges and their organization to prevent risks. The research pattern in terms of purpose, cognitive-evaluation; In terms of method, documentary - Library and field; In terms of time, sectional and in terms of data type, quantitative-qualitative. To determine the The sample size of the Cochran formula was used and 380 cases were determined as the final sample size for the research They were determined and the method of selecting respondents from among the residents of the studied area, with a sample The sampling was done randomly. Analyzes are done in the Spss environment and from Statistical tests such as; T-test, Friedman and numerical taxonomy for analysis has been used. The result of the one-sample T-test showed that the variables of good urban governance, in A level of less than 05/0 is significant and has an average situation in the worn-out fabric of Semnan city. Also The result of the test confirmed that the best situation is related to the axis of justice index with an average The rank was 24/4. The result of the test also It showed that the condition of worn-out tissue regeneration is weak. The results of the Friedman test also showed that there is a significant difference between the rank of variables. Based on the average ranks, the security variable with an average of 4.997 was in First place, followed by education, economy, health, culture, urban services and sports, respectively They were placed. Also The results of the analysis for 27 indicators show that the values Social and human development have the highest averages. Indicators related to identity Historical, internal development and health have also performed well. In contrast, public participation It has had the weakest performance. Most indicators such as accountability, Identity, attachment, interaction, income and infrastructure are at a medium to high level.
 

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Desertification is a complex issue, which is caused by both natural processes and human activities. This includes land degradation due to various factors such as wind and water erosion, destruction of vegetation and reduction of water resources. Sustainable human development depends on three key elements: people, resources and participation. The purpose of this research is to identify the criteria and indicators that affect the non-sustainable participation of rural communities in desertification plans, to prioritize these criteria and indicators based on the local residents' point of view, and to provide solutions to increase the participation of villagers. The communities in the desertification plans of this research are the villages of Ghayasabad, Shorkazi and Mohsen Abad in Garmsar city, which have existing plans for desertification. After the initial evaluation of the areas, talking with the local residents, appropriate criteria and indicators for preparing the questionnaire were determined and distributed among the people. In order to analyze the questionnaires, the Friedman test was used to prioritize the indicators. The results showed that educational criterion is the most important criterion of non-participation of people in desertification projects from the point of view of local communities (2.69 rank) and social (2.63), economic (2.35) and Planning (2/33) from the point of view of local communities were prioritized in the next stages. Also, Friedman's test showed that, from the point of view of local communities, the index of non-use of local promoter groups, with an average rank of 11.72 and 10.33, respectively, is the most important index affecting people's non-participation in desert projects. were detected.
 

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Subsidence as an environmental hazard is caused by various natural and human factors. The drastic changes in land use, the increase in the number of deep wells, and the effects of the subsidence phenomenon in Dehgolan plain show the need to investigate these influencing factors. In such a situation, adequate understanding of the degree of vulnerability and investigation of the influencing factors in that process provides the opportunity for planning and environmental preparation of the space in order to reduce vulnerability. In this research, first, the NDVI index of the plain was investigated with the help of 15 Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellite images, and the best date was selected for the Sentinel-1 images. In this way, 8 Sentinel-1 satellite images were analyzed over a period of 8 years (2014-2021) and all the images were analyzed and processed in eight stages with the help of SNAP software. 3 Landsat 7 and 8 satellite images were used to investigate land use changes (2000-2021).By applying atmospheric and radiometric corrections and finally performing the supervised classification method using Arc GIS software, land use was extracted and its changes were checked. The interferometric results showed that the Dehgolan plain suffered a total of 480 mm of subsidence. So that 60 mm of subsidence has occurred in this plain every year. In the end, with the preparation of the map of land use changes, the classes of irrigated agricultural and residential lands increased by 6.98, 1.47 percent, and the uses of pasture, forest and rainfed lands were faced with a sharp decrease, so that irrigated lands increased by 8477 and residential by 672 hectares. Is. The results obtained from the analysis of the relationship between water use and subsidence showed that rapid subsidence occurs mainly in water and urban land use classes. This is a consequence of increasing water extraction for agriculture and drinking. Usually, the pattern of land use conversion with more human influences has increased the rate of subsidence.
 

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 Landslides are one of the natural hazards that threaten human life and property. A landslide may destroy tens, hundreds and maybe thousands of hectares of land in a short time. For years, this hazard has destroyed orchard lands, fields, forest areas and pastures, communication roads, and rural settlements in the Mishkhas mountainous region of Ilam province. Landslide risk zoning is necessary to control this risk in this basin. The main goal of this research is the zoning of landslide risk areas in this watershed. One of the new methods to investigate the risk of landslides is the artificial neural network method. This method has advantages over other methods, the statistical distribution of the data is independent and does not require special statistical variables. In this research, first, a landslide distribution map was prepared in the selected basin. Then, the relationship between independent variables such as slope, lithology, distance from fault, land use, distance from road network, distance from waterways, direction of slope with areas affected by landslides was investigated. After preparing the weighted maps, these layers were converted into numerical information in the ArcGIS software environment, and after standardization, they were entered into the MATLAB software, and a program with a perceptron structure was written with the learning algorithm after the error propagation. After determining the structure of the artificial neural network and its training and testing, the evaluated results and the output of the network in the geographic information systems environment became a landslide risk map. The resulting risk map was calculated into different risk zones, classification and amount of landslide in each zone. The results of the analysis of the factors showed that in the Mishkhas basin of Ilam, Asmari Formation, the slope is 10-20%, the distance from the fault is more than 500 meters, the northeast direction, the distance from waterways is more than 100 meters, fruit orchards are the most sensitive land uses and the distance from the road is more than 200 meters are the most sensitive classes to the occurrence of landslides and have the highest rate of occurrence of landslides in the basin. On the other hand, the results of landslide risk zoning using artificial neural network method showed that in Mishkhas Basin of Ilam, about 80% of landslides are in high and very high-risk zones.

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Landslides, as one of the most dangerous natural hazards in mountainous regions, continuously threaten human infrastructure, especially roads and transportation routes. Their occurrence often results in significant loss of life and property, making it crucial to study and assess landslide hazards for effective zoning. The purpose of this research is to zone the landslide hazard along the Masal to Gilvan road using a neural network algorithm. The neural network algorithm is recognized as one of the most effective machine learning models, capable of solving complex problems in prediction and classification despite its simplicity. For this zoning analysis, nine influencing factors were considered: (1) geology, (2) vegetation cover, (3) slope, (4) land use, (5) distance from the road, (6) slope aspect, (7) elevation, (8) distance from fault lines, and (9) distance from rivers. The data were prepared, preprocessed, and then entered into MATLAB 2018. A neural network model was designed and implemented with 9 input neurons, 8 hidden neurons, and 1 output neuron. The results indicated that the four most influential factors, ranked by weight, were: slope (0.24), vegetation cover (0.17), distance from fault lines (0.14), and geology (0.11). Final validation using the ROC curve showed that the AUC values were 0.854 for the training phase and 0.971 for the testing phase, both of which reflect highly favorable results. The error rate was found to be very low.
 

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Human health depends on living in a healthy environment. Various factors determine environmental health, which should be explored to be able to improve them. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors affecting the health level of urban environment in district 20 of Tehran municipality and to find out their spatial inequality. This is a descriptive-analytical research based on documentary data of 6 indicators and survey data of 26 indicators. For the analysis, various tools of the GIS, especially the spatial analysis tool of Interpolation, are used. Quantitative analyzes are carried out by calculating statistical parameters in attribute tables. Findings show that the score of 2.29 out of 5 in the evaluation range of 1 to 5, indicates a poor situation of environmental health. Higher weakness belongs to the 6 indicators of the economic dimension including saving, sufficient income for buying cultural goods or going to recreational journeys, and residential home per capita. Access to urban parks and green spaces with scores of 4.55 and 3.43 respectively, show a superiority compared to other indicators. In the outskirts, the environmental health condition is much weaker than in the interior areas. Despite the vastness of worn-out fabric and informal constructions and abandoned spaces, what is more effective are the impacts of external factors, 3 sides of the district are limited to fringe lands, where the establishment of polluting industries, the passage of sewage canals and the replacement of foreign and the population involved in informal and illegal jobs are affected the health level of the urban environment.
 

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In this research, by preparing a distribution map of landslide areas and assessing the potential of landslide vulnerability in the Sivan basin, it has been tried to identify the resources at risk in different zones of vulnerability, then the environmental stability of the basin against the potential Vulnerability due to landslides should be investigated.. For this purpose, the information layers of landslide areas, agricultural lands, forests, residential areas and roads were prepared in the GIS environment. Then, the prepared layers based on the model (Index Overlay) were weighted and classified using the Class Maps Multi method and using expert opinion.According to the results obtained from the research, 44 landslides were determined in the Sivan basin, 17 of which could be measured and investigated in the field, 10 of which were in mountainous areas and were inaccessible and 12 of which could not be reached at all. The arena was not identified and 5 cases have been leveled due to the change of use to gardens and facilities. In the following, the potential vulnerability map of Sivan basin landslides in five vulnerability classes: very low (19846 hectares), low (1793 hectares), medium (741 hectares), high (2089 hectares) and very high (871 hectares) was prepared. In terms of environmental stability, the most damages caused by landslides in the Sivan basin are respectively related to communication roads and forest areas, which are in the range of high and very high vulnerability, agricultural lands are in the range of damage. Medium and lowest acceptability is related to residential areas, which is in a very low range. In the investigation of the environmental stability of the basin, it has been determined that there is a potential for vulnerability in all the mentioned cases, but it will be more intense in the direction of communication roads.
 

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Drought is one of the most important challenges faced by pastoralists around the world. This phenomenon can have significant negative effects on livestock health, production, and livelihoods. However, pastoralists can adapt to drought and reduce its negative effects by adopting various strategies. Semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi County, have been facing drought since 2007 due to their livestock farming. Since livestock farming has profound impacts on the lifestyle and livelihoods of these communities, the present study examines their experience in facing drought and identifies their management strategies in these conditions. The research method is qualitative and the research tool is in-depth interviews with 20 semi-nomadic people in Darbandi, Kalat-Naderi. Sampling was purposeful and carried out until theoretical saturation was reached to ensure that a wide range of perspectives and experiences were collected. The data from the interviews were analyzed using a qualitative grounded theory approach to extract key patterns and concepts. According to the findings, the semi-nomadic Darbandi people of Kalat County have adopted various strategies in the face of drought, which are classified into four categories: rangeland and grazing management strategies, livestock nutrition management, water consumption management, and livelihood diversification. These results can be used as a basis for formulating better policies in the field of crisis management and rural development. Also, these results can be used for more effective planning to reduce the vulnerability of nomads to drought.

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The occurrence of persistent rainfall, resulting from the integration of multi-scale cyclonic systems, is prone to producing heavy to severe precipitation. Therefore, it is highly significant due to its potential to cause disasters such as floods and landslides, as well as its importance in water resource management for agricultural purposes. In this study, persistent rainfall refers to rainfall events lasting at least three consecutive days with a total precipitation of more than 1 millimeter. The aim of this research is to identify and classify these types of rainfall for the western region of Iran over a 30-year statistical period (1993 to 2022) for the first time using the Lamb-Jenkinson method. In this method, the central coordinates of the study area are used as the reference point in the calculations. Sixteen additional points are also determined around the reference point. With the availability of instantaneous standard sea-level pressure data for these points, it becomes possible to calculate the values of geostrophic wind and vorticity. By comparing these two quantities, the types of weather patterns in the L-J method—which include four types: directional, cyclonic, hybrid, and undefined—are identified and categorized. Disregarding the undefined category, it was ultimately determined that the provinces of Kermanshah, Kurdistan, Hamedan, Lorestan, and Ilam each had 50, 50, 50, 40, and 39 occurrences of the directional state, respectively. Moreover, the frequencies of the cyclonic state for these provinces were 69, 94, 65, 66, and 38, respectively, with cyclonic rotation percentages of 100%, 98%, 97%, 95%, and 97%, respectively. As for the hybrid state, the frequencies obtained for each province were 49, 53, 43, 41, and 38, respectively.
 

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Aging is one of the most prominent indicators of demographic decline that most modern societies experience. At this stage of demographic decline, alongside a decrease and stabilization of mortality rates, birth rates also sharply decline. The development of technology and the mechanization of tasks, the improvement of quality of life and health-related indicators, individual-centered lifestyles, and increased economic inflation are significant factors in this issue. Iran is also among the countries on the verge of entering the stage of demographic decline. However, the intensity of this trend varies in different regions of the country. This article examines and analyzes the state of aging in the neighborhoods of the metropolis of Tehran. This research falls into the category of applied research in terms of purpose and is descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The research is based on the census data from 2016 and utilizes spatial statistical analyses. The positive values of Moran's autocorrelation analysis for each of the indices: aging (0.664), old-age dependency ratio (0.644), youth ratio (0.653), aging ratio (0.664), and aging index (0.665) in the neighborhoods of Tehran indicate a clustered pattern. This means that the issue of aging is more acute in some neighborhoods and areas of Tehran. Accordingly, the density of the elderly population is higher in most neighborhoods of the central and northern parts of the city. The final result shows that the distribution of the elderly space follows the logic of the social macro-ecology of Tehran and is relatively consistent with its natural-social topography. Furthermore, the spatial analysis of aging in the neighborhoods of this city shows that although all neighborhoods generally grapple with the issue of aging, planning and management should be based on the patterns and nature of the spatial distribution of this issue.
 

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Deforestation is one of the primary challenges and environmental threats facing forest ecosystems, including the Hyrcanian forests, and occurs under the influence of various natural and anthropogenic drivers. This study aimed to model the probability of deforestation occurrence within the Loveh forest management district located in northern Iran. The dataset comprised 104 documented deforestation points and 14 explanatory variables, derived through spatial analysis using GIS and environmental, topographic, and anthropogenic data. To assess the relationships among variables and predict the likelihood of deforestation, two statistical models were employed: logistic regression and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The results revealed that the GAM outperformed the logistic regression model, achieving a higher Kappa coefficient (0.84) and Area Under the Curve (AUC) value (0.956), and providing a more realistic spatial distribution of deforestation risk. The most influential variables included distance from roads, slope, wind effect, and elevation. Based on the GAM output, approximately 20% of the study area was categorized as high and very high risk. These findings underscore the pivotal role of access infrastructure, human pressure, and climatic factors in accelerating deforestation processes. The results of this study can serve as a scientific basis for prioritizing conservation interventions, reassessing road development policies, and enhancing spatial planning for sustainable forest management in northern Iran.
 

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The vulnerability of rural settlements to environmental hazards necessitates attention to local resilience. The aim of this study was to prioritize the factors affecting the physical-environmental and institutional resilience of Divshal rural district. The approach of the present study is descriptive-analytical and survey. Data collection was done in two forms: documentary and field (expert questionnaire). The statistical population of the study is 16 Rural managers of Divshal rural district. Using DEMATEL and ANP techniques, the obtained data were analyzed. According to the results of the ANP method, the sub-criteria of respecting the privacy of roads and preserving indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions have the greatest impact on the resilience of the study area. Also in the quality index of passages, sub-criteria of observing the privacy of passages; In the index of quality of access to services and infrastructure, quality of access to welfare and administrative services; In the shelter index, the existence of a strong public shelter in critical situations; In the index of quality of housing and constructions, preservation of indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions; In the environmental quality index, waste collection and disposal; In land use quality index, proper location of land uses; In the context of institutions, the existence of administrative organizations and institutions to help people; And in the Index of Institutional Relations, the cooperation of institutions in facilitating laws and giving credit to the people has the greatest effect on physical-environmental and institutional resilience.

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Objective: “The main and overall objective of this research was to identify natural hazards threatening Saluk National Park and Protected Area. In this regard, based on the assumptions of this research, in addition to the main objective, three sub-objectives were also determined for it. The sub-objectives include identifying hazards arising from climatic, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions.
Method: This research was conducted using field and library methods and descriptive analytical methods. The aim of the field studies was to identify the plant and animal species of this park and protected area, which was done using interviews with environmentalists, people living in villages adjacent to the park, and the results of censuses conducted by the Environment Organization. In library studies, concepts and definitions related to the environment and natural hazards were extracted from books available in libraries and documents of the Environment Organization. Statistics from meteorological stations in the region were used to study the climate of the region.
Results: Initial studies suggested that climatic, geomorphological, and hydrological hazards may be the most important natural hazards of the park. Based on the studies, climatic hazards including drought, frost, and frost have greater impacts in the study area. Geomorphological hazards of the park resulting from external dynamic processes including landslides, landslides, and erosion are ranked second, and hydrological hazards, especially river floods in the eastern part of the park in the Ruin River valley and the southern alluvial fans of the park, are ranked third.
Conclusions:
The most important conclusion of this research is that the natural hazards of this park naturally act as an ecological moderator. And these hazards can have detrimental effects on this park when they interact with negative human interventions, but if they are aligned with positive human actions, their effects will not have a significant destructive impact on this park.





 

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Reducing the emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation REDD is a strategy to moderate climate change, which is used to reduce the intensity of deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. In the last few decades, drastic changes in land use have caused a significant decrease in Hyrkan forests located in Mazandaran province. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to investigate the changes in land use and its prediction for the year 2050 using the Markov chain and the REDD project to reduce carbon dioxide emissions for the cities of Nowshahr and Chalus. Using the images of TM and ETM⁺ sensors of Landsat satellite, a land use map has been prepared in three time periods related to the years 1989, 2000 and 2021. Maximum likelihood method was used to classify images from supervised classification. From the error matrix, the Kappa coefficient in this evaluation was equal to 0.83 for 1989, 0.81 for 2000, and 0.92 for 2021. The results show that the forest cover decreases in 2050. In contrast, the area of ​​range land, city, barren land, agriculture and wetland will increase. Based on the goals of the REDD project, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions was calculated until 2050. If the REDD project is not implemented, a large area of ​​forest cover will be destroyed and a lot of carbon dioxide is released. The amount of carbon dioxide in the project area in 2021 is 49,681 tons and will reach 806,732 tons by 2051, and with the implementation of the REDD project in the region, this amount of gas can be increased to the equivalent of 402,321 tons. 404411 tons of carbon dioxide was prevented from entering the upper atmosphere of the earth. Examining changes using satellite images can help managers and planners to make more informed decisions.
 

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Objective: Investigating the occurrence of land subsidence in the country and the extent to which rural settlements are exposed to the phenomenon of land subsidence.
Methods: The present study was based on library surveys and studies, field observations and impressions. Using information received from the National Mapping Organization, a map of the country's subsidence zones and the degree of risk of each zone, including very low, low, medium, high and very high risk, was drawn, and the aforementioned maps were compared with the location of the villages.
Results: According to the analysis of the available data, 302 villages are at very high risk, 768 villages are at high risk, 834 villages are in the medium risk zone, and 573 villages are in the low risk zone. In terms of percentage weight, about 4 percent of the country's villages are at medium to very high risk of subsidence, of which 1,904 villages are at medium to very high risk, and 573 villages are at low risk.
Conclusions: The highest provincial distribution of villages at risk of subsidence in the country with a very high degree is in the provinces of Alborz, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan and Hamedan, and the highest provincial distribution with a high degree is in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Alborz, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Semnan, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan, East Azerbaijan, Hamedan and Yazd. Also, the highest provincial distribution of villages at risk of medium-level subsidence is in the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Alborz, Tehran, Semnan, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Hormozgan, Hamedan, and Yazd.

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Drought is one of the most significant natural hazards, characterized by complex spatiotemporal patterns. This study analyzes the structural and spatial characteristics of droughts in Iran across three temporal scales: annual, seasonal, and monthly. To achieve this, the intensity and extent of droughts were calculated using the RAI index and ERA5 monthly precipitation data over 42 years (1979–2021). Initially, the spatial distribution and directional trends of the drought centroid were examined, and its spatial variations over the years were analyzed. Additionally, the relationship between the location of the drought centroid and its extent was investigated. The results revealed that during the cold season, the drought centroid is primarily concentrated in central Iran, while in the warm season, it shifts toward the northwest, the Caspian Sea coast, and the southeastern regions of the country. The distribution pattern of droughts at all scales predominantly follows a northwest-to-southeast trajectory. Furthermore, shifts in the drought centroid toward the northeast, east, southeast, and south were observed to coincide with an increase in drought extent, whereas shifts toward the north, northwest, and west were associated with a reduction in drought extent. Overall, the findings of this study demonstrate a direct relationship between the location of the drought centroid and changes in drought extent, despite the fact that droughts in Iran lack consistent and predictable spatiotemporal patterns