Journal of Spatial Analysis

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The vulnerability of rural settlements to environmental hazards necessitates attention to local resilience. The aim of this study was to prioritize the factors affecting the physical-environmental and institutional resilience of Divshal rural district. The approach of the present study is descriptive-analytical and survey. Data collection was done in two forms: documentary and field (expert questionnaire). The statistical population of the study is 16 Rural managers of Divshal rural district. Using DEMATEL and ANP techniques, the obtained data were analyzed. According to the results of the ANP method, the sub-criteria of respecting the privacy of roads and preserving indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions have the greatest impact on the resilience of the study area. Also in the quality index of passages, sub-criteria of observing the privacy of passages; In the index of quality of access to services and infrastructure, quality of access to welfare and administrative services; In the shelter index, the existence of a strong public shelter in critical situations; In the index of quality of housing and constructions, preservation of indigenous and cultural identity in new constructions; In the environmental quality index, waste collection and disposal; In land use quality index, proper location of land uses; In the context of institutions, the existence of administrative organizations and institutions to help people; And in the Index of Institutional Relations, the cooperation of institutions in facilitating laws and giving credit to the people has the greatest effect on physical-environmental and institutional resilience.

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Reducing the emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation REDD is a strategy to moderate climate change, which is used to reduce the intensity of deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. In the last few decades, drastic changes in land use have caused a significant decrease in Hyrkan forests located in Mazandaran province. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to investigate the changes in land use and its prediction for the year 2050 using the Markov chain and the REDD project to reduce carbon dioxide emissions for the cities of Nowshahr and Chalus. Using the images of TM and ETM⁺ sensors of Landsat satellite, a land use map has been prepared in three time periods related to the years 1989, 2000 and 2021. Maximum likelihood method was used to classify images from supervised classification. From the error matrix, the Kappa coefficient in this evaluation was equal to 0.83 for 1989, 0.81 for 2000, and 0.92 for 2021. The results show that the forest cover decreases in 2050. In contrast, the area of ​​range land, city, barren land, agriculture and wetland will increase. Based on the goals of the REDD project, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions was calculated until 2050. If the REDD project is not implemented, a large area of ​​forest cover will be destroyed and a lot of carbon dioxide is released. The amount of carbon dioxide in the project area in 2021 is 49,681 tons and will reach 806,732 tons by 2051, and with the implementation of the REDD project in the region, this amount of gas can be increased to the equivalent of 402,321 tons. 404411 tons of carbon dioxide was prevented from entering the upper atmosphere of the earth. Examining changes using satellite images can help managers and planners to make more informed decisions.
 

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Objective: Investigating the occurrence of land subsidence in the country and the extent to which rural settlements are exposed to the phenomenon of land subsidence.
Methods: The present study was based on library surveys and studies, field observations and impressions. Using information received from the National Mapping Organization, a map of the country's subsidence zones and the degree of risk of each zone, including very low, low, medium, high and very high risk, was drawn, and the aforementioned maps were compared with the location of the villages.
Results: According to the analysis of the available data, 302 villages are at very high risk, 768 villages are at high risk, 834 villages are in the medium risk zone, and 573 villages are in the low risk zone. In terms of percentage weight, about 4 percent of the country's villages are at medium to very high risk of subsidence, of which 1,904 villages are at medium to very high risk, and 573 villages are at low risk.
Conclusions: The highest provincial distribution of villages at risk of subsidence in the country with a very high degree is in the provinces of Alborz, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan and Hamedan, and the highest provincial distribution with a high degree is in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Alborz, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Semnan, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan, East Azerbaijan, Hamedan and Yazd. Also, the highest provincial distribution of villages at risk of medium-level subsidence is in the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, Isfahan, Alborz, Tehran, Semnan, Qazvin, Kerman, Golestan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Hormozgan, Hamedan, and Yazd.

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Waste management is one of the main challenges faced by modern cities. Given the population growth and the increasing generation of waste, there is a growing need for innovative and intelligent methods in this field. Smart growth indicators can serve as tools to improve urban waste management. A waste management system comprises a set of activities aimed at organizing community waste through engineering and sanitary approaches. One of the most significant problems of coastal areas is the lack of proper waste management. Smart growth in waste management focuses on integrating technology and sustainable practices to optimize waste collection, reduce environmental impacts, and promote recycling. This study presents key indicators and trends related to smart waste management. The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative data via a descriptive survey. The study collected opinions from 20 experts in waste management and urban growth issues, as well as from randomly selected residents of Mahmoudabad city. Data analysis was conducted using grounded theory for qualitative data and structural equation modeling for quantitative data. The results indicate that the smart growth indicator of modern leadership, with a mean score of 4.6, and adequate infrastructure, with a mean score of 4.04, hold the highest average values among the smart growth indicators affecting waste management in the coastal city of Mahmoudabad.
 

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Drought is one of the most significant natural hazards, characterized by complex spatiotemporal patterns. This study analyzes the structural and spatial characteristics of droughts in Iran across three temporal scales: annual, seasonal, and monthly. To achieve this, the intensity and extent of droughts were calculated using the RAI index and ERA5 monthly precipitation data over 42 years (1979–2021). Initially, the spatial distribution and directional trends of the drought centroid were examined, and its spatial variations over the years were analyzed. Additionally, the relationship between the location of the drought centroid and its extent was investigated. The results revealed that during the cold season, the drought centroid is primarily concentrated in central Iran, while in the warm season, it shifts toward the northwest, the Caspian Sea coast, and the southeastern regions of the country. The distribution pattern of droughts at all scales predominantly follows a northwest-to-southeast trajectory. Furthermore, shifts in the drought centroid toward the northeast, east, southeast, and south were observed to coincide with an increase in drought extent, whereas shifts toward the north, northwest, and west were associated with a reduction in drought extent. Overall, the findings of this study demonstrate a direct relationship between the location of the drought centroid and changes in drought extent, despite the fact that droughts in Iran lack consistent and predictable spatiotemporal patterns
 

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subtropical high pressure (STHP) and Mediterranean cyclone are among the most important synoptic systems affecting Iran's climate. In this study, the effect of the high altitude location of the sthp on the Mediterranean gyres during the droughts and wetness of Iran during 1979 to 2020 was analyzed. In this regard, two datasets were used. Station data were used to identify drought and wetness periods, and ECMWF-ERA5 grid data was used to identify the location of high pressure in the subtropical region. The results showed that STHP with 3 anticyclone cells (ridge) affects the position of atmospheric waves affecting Iran's rainfall. The STHP system, especially the Arabian Subtropical anticyclone (ASA) and North Africa, play a more important role in the location of the cyclone affecting Iran's rainfall, so that widespread droughts with the expansion of the ASA to the west and its integration with the African anticyclone, the lack of expansion of the Mediterranean trough to the sea Redness and reduction of Sudan low and Mediterranean integration systems occur. With the eastward movement of the ASA over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean trough deepens and the amount of waves and consequently the rainfall of the country increases. Therefore, the eastward expansion of the Arabian Peninsula and the strengthening of the North African Ridge provide the conditions for the expansion of the Mediterranean Sea. Whenever the ASA is located in its easternmost position on the Oman Sea and the Arabian Sea, it will lead to the advection of moisture for Iran through the access to the large areas of southern water and eventually rainfall. The main cause of the occurrence of drought and wetness in Iran is the spatial variations of atmospheric waves due to the spatial variations in the ASA.

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Abstract
Objective:The Kabul Basin is one of the most vulnerable regions in Afghanistan due to the frequency of heavy rainfalls and devastating floods. This study aims to identify heavy rainfall events (above 20 mm) and analyze their synoptic mechanisms, focusing on their causes and patterns.
Methods:The study uses a descriptive-analytical approach based on daily rainfall data from 18 hydrometeorological stations in the Kabul Basin over the statistical period of 2008 to 2022. Heavy and flooding rainfall events were identified using the environmental-circulation method. Cluster analysis was conducted using Ward’s hierarchical clustering technique, and GrADS software was employed to extract and interpret synoptic maps.
Results:The analysis revealed three main synoptic circulation patterns responsible for heavy rainfalls in the basin. Three representative days were selected for detailed analysis: March 23, 2009 (31 mm rainfall at Qala-e-Malak), March 17, 2014 (59 mm at Bagh-e-Umumi), and February 5, 2017 (60 mm at Qala-e-Malak). These events were associated with Mediterranean troughs, cold Siberian air intrusions, and Indian anticyclone influence, which collectively intensified rainfall. The findings suggest that these systems can be monitored in advance for early warning.
Conclusions:Heavy and flooding rainfalls in the Kabul Basin are strongly influenced by specific synoptic systems and atmospheric interactions. Recognizing these patterns enables early detection of risk and can improve the efficiency of disaster preparedness, water resource management, and regional warning systems. This study provides valuable insight for reducing vulnerabilities and mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events in the region.

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Climate change stands out as one of the most pressing environmental challenges of the modern era, exerting profound impacts on aquatic ecosystems—particularly wetlands. This study investigates the influence of climate change on three wetlands in Chaldoran County, West Azerbaijan Province—Pir-Ahmadkandi, Naver, and Zavieh-ye Sofla—spanning the period from 1984 to 2023. To achieve this, climate data were obtained from the TerraClimate database and CMIP6 model outputs under four emission scenarios. Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, along with JRC/GSW data, were processed to evaluate changes in wetland surface areas. Annual wetland extents were extracted and compared against climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, and snow water equivalent) using time-series analysis, Pearson correlation, and multivariate regression. Additionally, the Delta Method was employed for downscaled climate data to project possible trends over the next 20 years.
The results indicate that rising temperatures and evapotranspiration constitute the primary drivers of wetland shrinkage. Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver have lost over 27% and around 20% of their surface area, respectively, whereas Zavieh-ye Sofla exhibits an irregular, seasonal reduction due to human interventions and agricultural runoff. Projections suggest that wetland surfaces—especially in Pir-Ahmadkandi and Naver—will continue to decline, potentially exacerbating drought conditions, diminishing biodiversity, and reducing water quality. These findings underscore the necessity of implementing sustainable water resource policies, controlling evaporation, and incorporating human impact assessments into conservation measures. Moreover, harnessing advanced hydrological modeling techniques and integrating remote sensing data with machine learning approaches may offer more effective strategies for safeguarding these vital wetland ecosystems.
 

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Objective: During a landscape, it is not facile to discriminate land parts that have dissimilar amounts and types of vegetation. Plant Ecological Units (PEUs) are known as management units and are a reflection of the management actions and natural disturbances in the region. This research aims to fuse different resolutions of satellite images to increase the PEUs classification accuracy.
Methods: For this purpose, the Marjan-Borujen watershed in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari province was selected. After field monitoring and surveys, four dominant PEUs groups were identified in the study area. In this study, bands from the Landsat_8 satellite images with 30 m  spatial resolution (bands 7_2) and a 15 m panchromatic band (band 8) were used, as well as the Sentinel_2 satellite images including panchromatic bands (8, 4, 2, 3) with 10 m spatial resolution. First step, using the Landsat panchromatic band, the 30-m bands were upgraded to 15 m through the pen-sharpening process; so the 15 m  data set was prepared from the Landsat_8 satellite. Then, to increase the spatial resolution of the 15-meter data set to 10 m, the Sentinel_2 panchromatic bands were used. In this way, the Sentinel_2 panchromatic bands were geometrically matched with the Landsat_8 15 m data set, and the Co-Registration process was performed with the minimum RMSE(0.05). Finally,  two data sets (2 to 8 bands) of the Landsat_8 satellite images with 15 m and 10 m spatial resolution, the PEUs classification maps were prepared using the RF classification algorithm, and the maps' accuracy was displayed as an error matrix.
Results: The results show that increasing the spatial resolution significantly enhances the accuracy of PEUs classification maps. The 15 m set shows an overall classification map accuracy of 66%, while increasing the spatial resolution to 10 m enhances the overall accuracy to 82%. As well as, the error matrix results show that the classification map procured from the 10 m set, all four PEUs groups have improved the producer accuracy, user accuracy, and kappa agreement index. So, in this map, PEU 2 and PEU 3 have the highest kappa agreement coefficient (83 percent).
Conclusions: This study shows that using the Gram-Schmidt fusion algorithm and consequently increasing the spatial resolution of Landsat 8 images from 30 m to 10 m reduces mixed pixels and increases pure pixels, which in turn improves the quality of PEU classification maps.
 

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Objective: Land use/land cover (LULC) changes, as one of the main anthropogenic drivers, significantly influence runoff patterns and intensify flood hazards. This study aims to assess the impact of land use changes on flood hazard zonation over the period 2015 to 2024 in the Samian watershed, located in Ardabil Province, Iran.
Methodology: Satellite imagery from Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2 was utilized to extract land use maps for the years 2015 and 2024 using the Google Earth Engine platform. LULC classification was performed using the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm. Subsequently, the Modified Flash Flood Potential Index (MFFPI) model was applied by integrating key environmental layers, including slope, flow accumulation, land use, geology, curvature, and soil texture, within the ArcMap environment to generate flood hazard zonation maps.
Findings: The results indicated substantial LULC changes between 2015 and 2024, including an 18.47% increase in irrigated agricultural lands, a 9.38% increase in residential areas, and a 25.85% rise in sparse rangelands. In contrast, dry farming lands decreased by 25.21%, dense rangelands by 9.14%, and snow-covered areas by 98.61%. These changes have led to a notable expansion of high-risk flood zones. The LULC classification achieved a high overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient exceeding 0.98, indicating reliable results.
Conclusion: The expansion of impervious surfaces and reduction in natural vegetation cover have increased surface runoff and, consequently, the extent of high-risk flood-prone areas. The MFFPI model, by incorporating both environmental and anthropogenic factors, proved to be an effective tool for flood hazard prediction and management.
 

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Objective: This study aims to analyze greenhouse gas variations across Iran and to identify the gases that exert the greatest influence on their overall dynamics. The findings enhance understanding of atmospheric pollution patterns and support the development of effective mitigation strategies. These results provide a scientific basis for climate-change mitigation planning in Iran. The study relies on satellite-based remote sensing datasets.
Methods: This study analyzes the temporal and spatial variations of major greenhouse gases including carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, water vapor, and methane across Iran from 2019 to 2024. Sentinel-5P satellite data were extracted via the Google Earth Engine platform, and after filtering and removing low-quality observations, the data were standardized using the Z-Score method to enhance comparability and correlation analysis. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce data dimensionality and identify dominant variation patterns. Temporal and spatial trends were then quantified using complementary statistical techniques.
Results:
Methane exhibited a consistent increasing trend from late 2021 through 2024 and accounted for the largest share of total variance (R² = 0.87), likely reflecting intensified anthropogenic activities and regional climatic shifts. CO, NO₂, and O₃ were mainly affected by seasonal fluctuations and nonlinear factors, and no clear long-term increasing or decreasing trends were observed. Water vapor showed a direct relationship with temperature variations, water sources, and atmospheric patterns, with its lowest concentrations recorded during the cold months and increases observed in the warm months. PCA analysis indicated that the first two principal components explained more than 70% of the total data variance, with CH₄, O₃, and NO₂ contributing the most to the overall variations.
Conclusions: The study results indicated that greenhouse gas variations in Iran are simultaneously influenced by natural factors and human activities. The combination of satellite data, statistical analysis, and PCA enabled a precise assessment of the temporal and spatial trends of greenhouse gases, providing valuable information for planning pollutant reduction and developing strategies to combat climate change.



 

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Objective: in recent decades, population growth, urbanization development, and change in land use have led flooding as one of the most destructive natural disasters in the world. Therefore, our goal is to identify flood areas and the synoptic patterns that lead to it, which are among the most important issues in preventing and reducing the effects of flooding and dealing with it.
Methods: In this study, in order to prepare a map of flooded areas, the extent of the floodwater that occurred in June (2024) in Ardabil province, were processed SAR radar images before and after the flood. Then, to identify synoptic patterns, daily maps of geopotential height at 500 hectopascals, sea level pressure at 1000 hectopascals, omega pressure at 500 hectopascals, and relative humidity at 700 hectopascals with a spatial resolution of 2.5 degrees in 2.5 degrees latitude were received and analyzed from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) of the United States.
Results: The flood area study indicated that in the studied province, Bilehsavar city with an area of 593 hectares, Parsabad city with 505 hectares, Meshkin-shahr with 245 hectares, and Germi city with 192 hectares were flooded due to the waterlog. The analysis of the flood zones also showed that the largest volume of flood entering Ardabil Province during the studied period was related to the northern cities of the province, where the provision of all moisture conditions and instability at the full depth of the troposphere layer led to the occurrence of heavy flood-causing rainfall in these areas.
Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that the use of radar data, due to its outstanding capabilities, is a useful tool in detecting and continuously monitoring of floods. Therefore, by detecting flood-prone areas and synoptic conditions that produce floods, executive managers can make the best decisions to deal with possible future floods.
 

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This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of evapotranspiration (ET) and its modulation by biophysical variables and land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the Karun River Basin, southwestern Iran, from 2000 to 2023. The basin, spanning 67,257 km² and characterized by diverse topography, experiences significant annual water loss (72% of 413 billion m³ national precipitation) due to ET, leading to salt and sediment accumulation. Data from MODIS products (MCD12Q1, MOD13A1, MCD43A3, MOD11A2, MOD16A3, CHIRPS) provided land cover, NDVI, albedo, LST, precipitation, and ET at 500-meter resolution, supplemented by Landsat imagery (30-meter resolution) for validation. Multiple regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analyses revealed a 39.5% ET increase (31.48 to 43.92 mm/year), a 32.78% NDVI rise (0.18 to 0.239), and a 16.35% LST decrease (33.52°C to 28.05°C), correlated with a 6.90% agricultural decline (6,939,225 to 6,460,335 ha), a 6.94% rangeland increase (3,840,375 to 4,106,780 ha), and a 42.76% forest expansion (156,000 to 222,700 ha). GWR (AdjR² > 0.97, peak 0.9887 in 2010) identified spatial non-stationarity, with overprediction in mountainous northeast regions and underprediction in agricultural southwest plains, reflecting LULC influences. Landsat-derived false color composites and classifications (overall accuracy 85–90%, Kappa 0.85–0.90) validated a 2,477 km² forest loss to high-ET rangelands/agriculture, driving warm-season ET elevation. Results emphasize the need for integrated hydrological models incorporating irrigation data and high-resolution analyses to enhance sustainable water management in this water-stressed region.

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This study employs the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the urban water distribution network in the Feyzabad and Baharan districts of Sanandaj against the parameter of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV). The main objective is to identify the key factors influencing network vulnerability and to propose strategies for enhancing the resilience of this critical infrastructure. PGV values were derived based on data from 40 faults longer than 10 km within a 70 km radius of the city, using empirical attenuation relationships. Geological, geomorphological, soil type, and pipe diameter and material data were collected from reliable local sources.In the AHP model, the main criteria including PGV, geology, soil, pipe material, and pipe diameter were integrated with weights of 0.460, 0.112, 0.243, and 0.182, respectively, and vulnerability maps of the network were generated. Results showed that PGV values across the city range between 35 and 39 cm/s. In Feyzabad, lower PGV values combined with thick steel pipes and Quaternary alluvial soils resulted in 81% of the network falling into the low-vulnerability class and only 2.1% into the high-vulnerability class. Conversely, in Baharan, higher PGV values (39 cm/s), combined with small-diameter asbestos pipes and shale bedrock, placed 34% of the network in the very high-vulnerability class.

                               

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Dust storms rank among the most significant natural hazards in the world’s arid and semi-arid regions, inflicting irreparable damage across multiple sectors each year. Given the rising frequency of dust storms in Kerman Province and other desert and arid areas of Iran, it is imperative to undertake a study aimed at identifying the synoptic patterns that precipitate dust events and at determining their source regions as well as their transport and dispersion pathways. In this research, the conditions and origins of dust storm formation over the 2000–2023 period were examined using synoptic and remote-sensing methods. The HYSPLIT model was applied to track airflow trajectories, and factor analysis together with cluster analysis were used to identify the synoptic patterns responsible for dust generation. Finally, the principal source regions of dust were delineated.
The results revealed that 63% of the province’s dust storms originate from domestic sources, whereas 37% originate from other areas. Three main atmospheric patterns were identified as drivers of dust activity in Kerman Province:
1. The co-advection of simultaneous low-pressure and high-pressure systems;
2. A lower-tropospheric cutoff low pressure in conjunction with the Siberian high;
3. A pressure-gradient regime featuring a core of elevated wind speeds.
Modeling of transport and dispersion pathways indicated that 60% of externally sourced dust is advected from the Arabian Peninsula, while 55% of dust emitted disperses southward, impacting the Makran coast and the Sea of Oman. Analysis of source regions further showed that the desert areas of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, as well as those of North Africa, together with internal sources such as the dried Jazmourian wetland, the Lut Desert, the Hamun region, and the Tabas Desert, contribute most substantially to the dust events observed in Kerman Province.
 

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Objective: “This study aims to investigate the drivers of ecological rupture in the Sultanieh Grassland, one of Iran’s most valuable natural ecosystems, which has experienced severe degradation over the past two decades. The research seeks to identify and prioritize the relative contributions of climatic, hydrological, and anthropogenic factors in triggering systemic instability and to assess whether the ecosystem has crossed a critical threshold toward irreversible collapse.
Methods: An integrated analytical framework was employed, combining multi-source datasets from 2000 to 2021. Remote sensing indicators—including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Soil Moisture (SM)—were derived from MODIS and Landsat imagery. Hydroclimatic time series (temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration [PET], and groundwater levels) were analyzed alongside demographic statistics and land use/land cover (LULC) changes. A multi-criteria weighting approach, grounded in catastrophe theory, was applied to objectively quantify the relative influence of key drivers while minimizing subjective bias in decision-making.
Results: The analysis reveals a 15% decline in effective precipitation, a 1°C increase in mean annual temperature, and a groundwater table drop exceeding 30 meters over the study period. These environmental stresses were compounded by a fourfold population growth and a doubling of per capita water consumption. Consequently, vegetation cover declined persistently, with NDVI decreasing from 0.2817 in 2004 to 0.1701 in 2021, while barren lands expanded significantly. Within the catastrophe theory framework, three primary drivers—groundwater depletion, vegetation loss, and population–water pressure—were identified as collectively responsible for 50% of the system’s destabilization. The evidence confirms a transition from a stable ecological state to a dissipative, degraded phase.
Conclusions: The Sultanieh Grassland has likely crossed a critical ecological threshold due to the synergistic intensification of anthropogenic and climatic pressures within a geomorphologically and hydrologically vulnerable setting. Without immediate intervention—including sustainable groundwater management, strict control of urban expansion, and active restoration of hydrological equilibrium—the ecosystem faces irreversible transformation into an active source of dust emissions and desertification. This study underscores the urgency of science-based policy actions to prevent the total collapse of this irreplaceable natural and cultural heritage site.

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Land use is one of the most important aspects of studying natural resources management and reviewing environmental changes, and studying it is also very important in understanding the microclimate of urban areas. Therefore, according to the importance of the topic in this research, the spatial pattern of land use changes and surface temperature in Bukan city in the statistical period of 1990-2020 using Landsat satellite images and sensors (OLI-TIRS, ETM+, TM) and the separate window algorithm. was evaluated. The results showed that the land use of the area has changed a lot during the period under review, so that the residential use has increased and the agricultural use has decreased. The results of the survey of the earth's surface temperature also showed that in 1990, the highest temperature was related to pasture areas and barren lands with a temperature between 32 and 40 degrees Celsius and the lowest temperature was related to areas with dense vegetation with a temperature between 15 and 20 degrees. It is Celsius. The temperature in residential and urban areas varies between 28 and 31 degrees Celsius. In 2020, the average temperature of pasture use was 35 degrees Celsius, residential use was 30 degrees Celsius, and garden and agricultural land was 14 and 24 degrees Celsius, which, apart from pasture use, which did not change significantly, other studied uses increased. They show a temperature of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius compared to 1990. The examination of the temperature in relation to the land use changes showed that there is a high correlation between the land cover and the surface temperature of the land, so that in some of the sampled places, it showed that the change in the use of gardens Residential use or pasture has caused an increase of 15 to 20 degrees Celsius in the temperature of the earth's surface in these areas. Based on the results of land use and overall vegetation, it has an indirect and strong relationship with the surface temperature of the earth, and with the increase in the area of residential and barren lands and the decrease of vegetation and agricultural lands, the surface temperature of the earth will increase.

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Objective: A major part of rural risk, such as production risks, economic risks, and severe climate changes, is related to agricultural risks, which have significant negative impacts on the agricultural sector. This study aimed to investigate the effects of risks and hazards of the rural ecosystem on the development of various types of rural tourism in the rural tourism area of ​​Mahmoudabad County, located in Mazandaran Province, in order to examine the development of various types of rural tourism as a strategy for resilience and adaptation of villagers, as well as a preventive strategy in villages against economic, environmental, and social shocks, as well as reducing vulnerability and diversifying the rural economy.
Methods: The research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive (non-experimental) and correlational (variance matrix analysis) in terms of data collection method with the aim of showing the relationship between variables. The study population included all 88 villages in Mahmudabad city. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire and the respondents were the villagers. The structural equation modeling (SEM) method based on Smart-PLS was used to analyze the data.
Results:
The results of the research on prioritizing dimensions and hazard and risk items for rural ecosystem assessment show that economic, environmental, and social risks were ranked in priorities one to three, respectively. Based on the path coefficient (pc), only the direct effect of environmental pressure (with a path coefficient of 0.338 and a T-value of 2.467) was significant. About 30 percent of the changes in the development of tourism types are explained by the proposed model with the direct effect of environmental hazards and the indirect effect of economic hazards and social hazards.

Conclusions: As a general conclusion, the types of rural tourism in the region should be given serious attention as opportunity driven entrepreneurship and necessity driven entrepreneurship. In this regard, recognizing ecological values ​​through education and long-term propaganda for the sustainable development of rural livelihoods with emphasis on the development of green tourism, ecotourism, and agrotourism is recommended

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Objective: Livestock grazing in the Hyrcanian forests is one of the oldest forms of traditional land use, practiced within locally defined areas known as customary systems. In contrast, formal forest utilization is conducted through management plans divided into compartments. This study aimed to examine the role of ecological factors in shaping the boundaries defined by local communities (customary systems) and by experts (compartments) in parts of the Nowshahr forests, including the Namkhaneh and Garazbon series.
Methods: The ecological factors analyzed included vegetation type, main and sub-rivers, ridge, ravine, hillsides, and aspect. Boundary maps of customary system and compartment were compared with ecological boundary maps in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Since roads play a determining role in compartment boundaries, their influence was also examined.
Results: Results showed that 90.02% of customary system boundaries aligned with ecological factors, while only 4.5 km did not. Moreover, 81.29 km and 85.2 km of compartment boundaries (equivalent to 90.22% and 94.56%) were determined by ecological factors, respectively, and by the combined effect of ecological factors and roads. In total, 8.81 km of compartment boundaries were not consistent with ecological factors, which decreased to 4.9 km when road influence was considered. Among ecological variables, vegetation type and aspect had the greatest effect on boundary formation. All major rivers contributed to defining boundaries, representing 17% of customary system boundaries and 9% of compartment boundaries. Less than one kilometer of roads did not coincide with compartment boundaries, while about 32% of compartment boundaries overlapped with roads.
Conclusions: These findings indicate that traditional knowledge used in defining customary system is rooted in a deep understanding of structural factors of ecology, whereas expert-designed compartment boundaries also incorporate management and accessibility considerations alongside ecological ones.