Journal of Spatial Analysis

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Environmental hazards are considered as one of the main obstacles for achieving sustainable human settlements development (particularly in rural areas). Today, with a new look at crisis management, using all managerial, organizational and planning accomplishments before the crisis, is an essential and rational concern. Rural settlements of the country along with cities always are threatened by a variety of environmental hazards, but what makes these spaces different from the cities is the high-intensity of vulnerability due to its physical decay texture. In this regard, one of the key elements in confronting the possible crisis that must be taken into account is the crisis management bases in which all prevention, preparedness and response measures, including disaster relief, temporary accommodation for the injured, etc. is provided and minimizes the consequences of potential crisis. Being located in the Kahrizak fault zone and the placement of hazardous industries in this region, is the main reason for selecting Kahrizak district as a study area in this research.    To achieve goals of constructing crisis management bases which indeed is the tactic ability of crisis management system (CMS), it is required to set the site selection criteria and standards for constructing them in such a way that provide more operational activities and develop the level of their impacts. In this regard, in the first step, the final criteria for site selection of crisis management base were selected after reviewing previous studies. Then, after surveying the experts and also the localization of criteria on the basis of area condition, seventeen final criteria were determined. For quantitative criteria, data were collected through organizations and reference centers and for a single qualitative criterion (cultural convergence), the questionnaire instrument used in gathering data. After collecting data using library and field methods, a combination of two models: fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis process (AHP) applied for optimal location of crisis management base.    To determine the impact level of each criterion in the site selection process in two above-mentioned models, the standards for each of the seventeen criteria was determined with the help of combination method. The standards of some of the criteria determined using the standards in related organizations and some other standards proposed by experts and also through the localization by the researcher. Afterward, initially fuzzy standardized common scale maps produced from all information layers in a raster format. Then selected criteria by experts in the format of AHP model were compared with each other through pairwise comparison method. As a result of this comparison, the weight of criteria was determined which indicates the preference degree of each criterion over the others. At last, all standardized (fuzzified) layers multiplied in each of the final weight resulting from Analytical Hierarchy Model and in total converted into weighted fuzzy layers. In the next step, following the process of fuzzy model, fuzzy addition and multiplication operators were applied on output layers. Finally, to modify the layer resulting from fuzzy addition and multiplication, the Gamma operator was used. As such, after producing layers of different fuzzy gammas, essential assessment was conducted for selecting appropriate and ideal gamma. In order to do this, produced layers of each fuzzy gammas were compared with the study area for optimal location and the establishment of crisis management base. Since the gamma 0.9 had the most conformity to suitable zone in the layers of study area, it was selected as the appropriate gamma. However, to ensure the selected location, field study was conducted.     According to the research findings, the following conclusions were obtained: Site selection criteria for rural crisis management base not only has an environmental essence (built and natural), but socio –economic criteria are important as well Effective criteria for site selection of rural crisis management base, affected by regional and local requirements are not the same. Localization of criteria is a necessity that should be considered in site selection. Standards based on site selection criteria depending on the type of services, goals and location at multiple spatial levels (regional, local, urban and rural) is different: in the other words one size does not fit all Site selection is not only based on the location within overlaying information layers by using the models, but the final choice is done after field evaluation and visit.

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The Iranian plateau formed by the active tectonics of the Alpine-Himalayan belt, is situated between the Eurasian and Arabian plates. The plateau is considered as one of the most seismically active regions in the world and is faced with different earthquakes each year. Active tectonic conditions, different faults and seismic sources and a large population in earthquake-prone areas makes it necessary to perform more considerations and scientific studies in order to analyze the seismic hazards and risks.

In this paper, different aspects and effects of the Iranian seismicity has been determined. In order to review the status of seismicity and distribution of earthquakes in Iran, we need first to consider the tectonic setting, structural environment and the active faults of the country. To date, there have been some different studies to divide the the seismotectonic setting of Iran into different seismic zones which are explained in this paper briefly. Moreover, the seismicity and most destructive past earthquakes in the Iranian plateau and distribution of earthquakes are shown.

    One of the most important tools in studying earthquakes is to perform continuous recording and monitoring of the seismic event and ground motions which is implemented using seismic and strong motion networks. The systematic networks have been set up within the country and are working and responsible for data collection and monitoring of seismic events permanently. These networks including the Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC), broadband seismic network of the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) and strong motion network of the Road and Housing and Urban Development Research Center (BHRC) are also introduced in the current study.

Given the high seismicity rate in Iran and rapid development and growing of the populated cities and buildings on seismic hazard prone areas, attention to seismic hazard and risk assessments has been become as a particular issue that should be addressed carefully. Therefore, seismic hazard analysis and estimation for the constructions of human structures has become an enforcement for which several seismic regulations and codes have been defined. In this regard, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard methods have been developed as the two most important techniques. The deterministic method is a conservative approach that is mostly used to determine the highest level of strong ground motion (acceleration) for a special site (such as dams and power plants). On the other hand, the probabilistic method provides probabilities of different strong ground motion levels considering different uncertainties and the useful life of a structure.

    In addition, considering the level of seismic hazard in a region and its population can lead to risk assessment, vulnerability and resiliency of the human societies. Thus, parallel to seismic hazard and risk analysis, it is so important to conduct crisis management, reduce efforts and a continuing assessment of the situation in the country. In the present study, problems and challenges facing the crisis management, as well as urban distressed areas are mentioned.

    Regarding the existence of constant threat of natural disasters, especially high risk of earthquakes, there is a serious need to conduct more scientific researches in various fields, including detailed research on various aspects of seismology in Iran, retrofitting of constructions, crisis management and disaster risk reduction. To achieve this purpose, we need a scientific network in Iran. There sould be several experts and organizations as the members of this network who are able to understand and control the earthquake effects on the society. Necessity of such a scientific network is due to that it is impossible to take efforts in order to reduce the earthquake risks without a holistic perspective and earthquake data completion.

In this regard, we need significant infrastructures in terms of human resources and technical cooperation to motivate a set of organizations, universities and research institutes. The responsible organizations such as geological survey of Iran, National Cartographic Center of Iran, meteorological organization, Institute of Geophysics of the University of Tehran, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Road and Housing and Urban Development Research Center, National Disaster Management Organization, Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as universities and NGOs must work together to make it possible to review and integrate the existence potentials and to share the information and data of the earthquakes in Iran and define various response scenarios faceing natural disasters, especially earthquakes.

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In advance crisis management of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes in urban areas is one of the necessities of urban planning. However, nowadays with the help of technology we can determine the risk of crisis in the urban areas and settlements. Due to population growth and increasing urbanization, the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquake can cause terrible disasters in the cities. The need to reduce the vulnerability of the cities is one of the main objectives of physical planning of urban areas and city designing. The city of Kashmar in one of Iran's earthquake-prone areas (due to its adjacency to the Lut fault)  has  witnessed the sever destruction from  the September 25, 1903 earthquake (with a magnitude MS= 5/9) and Torbat Haidariye earthquake on 25 May 1923 (a magnitude MS= 5/8). It is very important to identifying vulnerable areas to earthquakes in advance. Accordingly the objective of this study is to identify the vulnerability of urban areas of  Kashmar city to the earthquake by using VIKOR model of urban planning. The vulnerability of the city was computed on several parameters among which the population density is the most important one.

     In order to carry out the research eleven population and other indices were used. These indices are as follows:

1. Building Materials;
2.  The quality of the building;
3. Old buildings;
4. Number of floors;
5. The materials of facades of building;
6. Compatibility of land uses;
7. Access to network passages;
8. Distance from the main fault;
9. The building density;
10. Numbers of population; and
11.   Relief and rescue centers.

 By using the VIKOR ranking model the vulnerability of the urban areas of the city was identified and classified. The correlation between the city vulnerability and each of these indices was calculated. The impact of the indices on the city vulnerability was calculated according to the AHP model.

      The results of the study showed that the zone 3 had the highest and the zone 8 had the lowest physical vulnerability in the model. Based on the results of the Spearman correlation, the impact of the population on the vulnerability was about .5866 which is relatively noteworthy.  This means that highest degree of vulnerability can occur in very populated areas of the city. All of the city was regionalized according to the degree of vulnerability to earthquake.

The lack of amenities and facilities such as health centers, fire stations, building materials and weak areas within the city will increase the losses and casualties. It is noteworthy that comprehensive city planning in the future must improve and the needed facilities should be provided. In addition providing services to the residents, especially in critical times after the earthquake should be provided.

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Nowadays, the adaptation of urban crisis management with  urban development plans is considered as an efficient way of cutting back on damages and it is essential to predict economic and physical susceptibility of families and communities. Therefore, considering the urban crisis index can play a significant role in urban planning. Tehran city thanks to geographic location, climate conditions and geological conditions is among risky cities so that the presence of seismic faults has made this city potentially seismic and in need of comprehensive crisis management; it needs to be confirmed that despite the earthquake potential in the region and the quality of the buildings especially in old and organic texture and other parameters such as access network and buildings and skeletal disorder the occurrence of a large scale earthquake and other natural disasters would be very catastrophic. For this purpose and given the high susceptibility of the region such as the impression by the North and South Rey fault, hazardous industries and fundamental establishments on the one hand and the presence of worn-out texture on the other hand were the reasons behind choosing this region to do the research.

     This research is descriptive-analytic in terms of data collection and practical concerning the function. The location of study is 20^th municipal district of Tehran. The area is about 23 square kilometer and by including the range  about 200 square kilometers. The research population consists of 500 experts and administrators engaged in preparation and practice of detailed municipal plan of Tehran city and crisis management organization of Tehran city. The research mass was selected at 217 persons by the use of Cochran’s formula. The sampling method was random classification method. Data collection instrument was the use of author-prepared questionnaire which consisted of four parts. Measurement instrument validity by facial method and its reliability was examined using  Chronbach Alpha. Therefore, after providing the required acceptable reliability among 20 persons of the subjects the personal attendance method of distribution was applied.

     The research findings show that among research variables, locating crisis management uses within detailed plans received more attention (Mean:82/36) and the knowledge of crisis management within detailed plan management process received less attention (Mean: 24/08). Also the study of distribution indices using  standard error deviation and variance reveals that the type of responses to the variable of attention to risky use policies (standard deviation: 4/08) has low distribution and attention to crisis management uses (8/49) has high distribution. For ranking variable conditions Freedman test was implemented. The results obtained from this test showed that the variable of attention to crisis management uses with the mean of 3/81 ranked first and attention to crisis management knowledge within detailed management process with the rank mean of 1/00 stands fourth on the list. The obtained results from the Pearson test also show that among all variables there is a significant relation with a confidence level of 99% and the correlation among them was  positive. Also the highest correlation coefficient was attention to the crisis management uses and attention to crisis management knowledge at the rate of 0/898 and the least correlation is about the relation between the variable of attention to knowledge of crisis management and the reflection of crisis management indexes on detailed project plans at the rate of 0/423.

     Considering the obtained results can conclude  that crisis management indexes through the process of preparation, approval and the administration of detailed projects of Tehran city and 20^th municipal district have not been attended sufficiently. For instance, skeletal features determination and operational properties at each urban scale were given the rate of susceptibility and the natural place limitations to enhance escape possibilities and people refuge (apposite building type, low building density, use of paths as the getaway and refuge spaces etc.) have not been estimated and their impacts have not been included in development plans.

     Also neighborhood was expected to be observed in urban lands use determination and avoid incongruous uses next to each other and provide quick exit but such cases have not been attended in detailed Tehran city project and 20^th municipal district or that the intended issues have been briefly listed and practically had no use in administration stage. In fact, the bad condition of the skeletal elements location and inapposite uses of the urban lands, deficient urban network, compact urban texture high urban density, improper location of fundamental establishments and shortage and improper distribution of urban open spaces etc. which have critical role in boosting up the rate of inflicted damages to Tehran city against crisis on the basis of the experts’ vantage point has received insufficient attention and while discussing the issue there is no coordination among related organizations concerning a serious attention to such indexes.

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The term "Game GIS” implies to real spatially enabled games in which a special part of the world is virtually simulated, represented and managed. In fact, game GIS is an integrated system consists of video games and geographical information systems, aimed to simulate and representing spatially enabled environment. The achieved result of implementing a game GIS service can be exploited before a crisis for wise designing of a city and diminution of the aftermath casualties. As the decision making process plays the key role to reduce the losses, the need arises for using the models as much as close to the reality. By this, it is possible to use the virtual world in in the form of a game rather than experiencing the real world with real wounded and killed persons in. This enables us to recognize and manage a test environment for promoting the managing the real environment of a city during and before a natural hazard disaster like an earthquake. The game GIS may be counted as a service for sharing and dissemination of spatial information as well as online GIS to have a visual and synoptic management of the earth plant facing various disasters. The current research is aimed to design and implement a software architecture for an earthquake game in Tabriz city (Iran).

The study area is district 10 of Tabriz located within a fault zone. According to field surveys, 82.1 percent of buildings in the study area may be vulnerable against earthquake in terms of the quality of building construction.

Methodology of the research to design, program and implement the game GIS service are undertaken as the following processes: data collection, database creation and software production.

The collected data includes master plan maps of the district 10, building quality, number of floors, building façade materials, age of building, street network (adopted from the master plan of Tabriz) and population of each parcel.  Also, some regions are assumed as hospital, relief-rescue center and treasury money.

To design the software, 2D environment of MapControl and for implementing the game into the 2D environment, ArcEngine of ArcGIS have been exploited. The mentioned engine gives us possibility to use of analysis and modelling capabilities as much as closer to the ground reality which are compatible with available geometry of the terrain (Amirian, 2013, 17-19). The MapControl is a framework in which the map and game area are displayed. Symbology is used to show the persons as well as equipments. Briefly, the stages undertaken during the current research can be explained as the following:

• Data collection based on available sources via field surveying.
• Data processing and creating a database from street networks and building owned the age, materials, floors fields.
• Calculation of vulnerability rate for each building separately as well as the amount of deconstruction damage per Richter.
• Drawing the street and alley network to prepare network analysis dataset.
• Preparing special network analysis database and evaluation in various situations.
• Using the gained layers and implementation of the scenario.

After that, the conceptual architecture of the software has been designed based on the scenario.

The game GIS services has been designed with 6 different classes offer numerous functionalities responsible for displaying program commands and different views of the game. Finally, the service is designed and implemented in a real schema for crisis management application. The resulted game is played in 4 stages. In the first stage, the player starts with a 5 Richter magnitude earthquake and ends while the player gets to 8 Richter. The designed software simulates the destruction rate of buildings based on the influential factors, wounded transfer routing and rescue operation. The game player gains credit according to his quickness and agility. The player would go to the next stage with one Richter magnitude higher, if gains enough credits during each stage. The result of the current research as a Game GIS service, can be used in earthquake simulation happens in various magnitudes for management of decreasing the effects of earthquake, quick reaction, maneuver and education. Considering the achieved results, designing and performing the game GIS service over the web based on open source technologies rather than being desktop and commercial service, can be suggested as a new research frontier for the future researchers.

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Among the various environmental hazards, flood is the greatest and most important climate crisis which takes every year the lives of thousands people and impose severe damages on human society and environment. Today, it is clear that controlling all hazards, including floods is not possible. Suitable management can only minimize the damages. The literature on natural disasters management indicated that in the process of natural disaster management and their vulnerability mitigation, there are two dominant paradigm: technic-based approach and community-based approach.

Community-based approach welcome the local cooperation and participation in disaster management process and calls for strengthening local capacity through the participation of all individuals and groups at the local level. This approach is not only appropriate to provide solutions for disaster reduction, but build disaster preparedness. Because disaster preparedness planning requires special attention to local participation. In the geographic area of Bashar River Basin, due to the lack of suitable agricultural land and greater quantity of water for rice crop, villages have been built at rivers edge. So that, most of the houses and farms in the villages are located very close to the river. However, these locations are extremely vulnerable to flooding. This study reviews the status of local participation and its impact on reducing flood risks. Also, this research focuses on factors influencing local community trends and choices in the participation rate.

This study is applied research in terms of purpose and uses descriptive-analytical method. According to the nature of the study, data were collected through fieldwork and library research methods using observation, interview, questionnaire and evaluation card techniques. To understand different characteristics of community, Likert scale and one-sample t-test were used and measurement scale for data was ordinal. Also. The method of selective experimental approach based on profit was taken to evaluate the level of different trends in Community's financial participation for reducing detrimental effects of flood. To recognize the community awareness and perception toward flood risk and the probability of its occurrence in the future, the willingness level to participation and to explore the effective factors on villager’s decisions and to utilize modern management techniques the selective experimental approach based on evaluation card and logit model were employed.

The results of statistical analysis showed that in the study area, 86.5% of the community have experienced the damages caused by flooding and forecasted the likelihood of heightened chance of flooding in the future. Finding showed that although the people use traditional methods for managing flood, but they tend to employ modern methods such as dam building for reducing flood risk. This help them to increase the safety factor for their locations and farm lands. In spite of the fact that the villagers expressed the higher safety factor for new management methods such as (dam building, river broadening and preventing the destruction of forest and environment), but it seems that improper functioning, adverse consequences (environmental and socio-economic) of projects implementation (dam building) as well as the inability of villager's financial participation (high cost of this kind of methods), are barriers to using them for lowering the flood risks and damages.

The review of the possible role of some intervening variables to predict local communities' participation in decision-making processes showed that low-income, old age of the samples with high average (47.61) and education with lower average (3.16) are the most important factors influencing community decision making. The results of binominal logit model showed that the proposed variables is significant at the 5% level. If the offer price increase, the chance of residents' acceptance of participation will decrease and vice versa.

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Most of the large cities in developing countries have faced with the problem of informal settlements. The formation and growth of these settlements for reasons such as rapid and outside the customs building construction are the threatening issue for their communities. Informal settlements are areas that often shaped and expanded in major and middle cities of the Iran’s cities including the city of Parsabad. During the last decades, the rapid growth of urbanization and the lack of appropriate planning for low-income families housing leads to the formation of the urban informal settlements in most cities of the Iran. In most cases, these settlements have a structural and demographic dense texture. The structural texture of these settlements is often fine aggregate, impermeable, and unstable. In times of crisis, the possibilities of human and material losses to them are high.

Environmental hazards such as earthquakes are a serious threat to these settlements. However, these hazards in most developing countries, due to the unavailability and lack of preventive actions, end to the crisis. We cannot prevent earthquakes. But we can reduce the losses and damages caused by the earthquakes. Remove of the disaster is impossible, but it is possible to reduce the damage caused by the disaster. One of the most important ways to reduce the risk of earthquakes is preparation to deal with earthquakes. Preparation means having previous programs and plans.

     Iran is one of the countries where earthquakes always happen. Because Iran located in the world's earthquake belt, each year on average about 1,000 earthquakes happening in Iran. Ardebil and Pars-Abad city, located in an area that the possibility of earthquakes shakings in these areas, is more. The Zire Nahre Torab Neighborhood is one of the Parsabad city’s informal settlements that located in the northwest of the city. Regarding the possibility of an earthquake in the city of Pars Abad, identification and assessment the vulnerability of the neighborhood during an earthquake, is essential. Therefore, identifying and assessing the vulnerability, especially in the poor neighborhoods to offer strategies for dealing with the injuries, is essential. The aim of this study is assessing vulnerability of the informal settlements during an earthquake by using spatial data and GIS. This study, have been prepared in fifth main parts including: introduction and background, methodology and presentation of case study, theoretical framework, analysis and conclusions.  

This research in terms of the nature is practical and is descriptive and in terms of the method is analytical. Three methods including library, documentary and survey have been used for data collection. In the first phase, data and base maps were extracted from documents and reports of projects such as city comprehensive and detailed plans. Also, in this phase of the study data were updated. In the second phase, the problem, questions and research objectives were defined. In the third phase, the 3 criteria and 12 sub-criteria based on research literature and according to available data were selected. In the fourth phase, after preparation of databases related to each of the criteria in GIS, input layers were prepared for each of them. In the fifth step, the method of network analysis process (ANP) was used to determine the significance of criteria. In the sixth phase, the weighted overlay index (WOI) was used for combining output layers.

The results of this study show that more than 80% of neighborhood buildings are vulnerable against the risk of a possible earthquake. Also, research findings suggest that physical characteristics such as building structure, quality and age of the buildings will have the greatest role in determining the neighborhood buildings vulnerability level. Doing activities such as resisting buildings, improving roads, locating facilities in appropriate places, training and informing citizens to prevent a crisis caused by the possible earthquakes, is essential. Other recommendations are listed in below:

1. Identifying vulnerable buildings
2. The use of GIS in the management of settlements
3. Preparations cities, to deal with urban hazards
4. Empowering citizens to deal with environmental hazards
5. Action to reduce earthquake risk
6. Civil engineering Renovation of buildings
7. New practices in the urban construction
8. Equip cities with facilities and relief supplies.
9. The use of specialists in urban planning.
10. Conducting workshops on urban resilience.

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Disaster risk which is the potential loss expressed in lives, health status, livelihoods, assets and services, can occur in a particular community or a society due to the impact of a natural hazard. Disaster Risk Reduction is a systematic approach to identify, assess and reduce that risk. Or (in identifying, assessing, and reducing …) To be specific, the purpose of this or (the current) approach is to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout an education factors (throughout an educational factor Or throughout educational factors) to avoid or limit the adverse impacts of natural hazards.

Knowledge and education are recognized as the key components of disaster risk management. Occurrence of enormous disaster in the world shows ( or pinpoints) the need to use  (or for using , in order to prevent repetition of the same structure) knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. The role of education for disaster risk reduction strategies can thus be presented based on three types of activities, including Save lives and prevent injuries should a hazardous event occur; Prevent interruptions to the provision of education, or ensure its swift resumption in the event of an interruption, and finally Develop a resilient population which is able to reduce the economic, social and cultural impacts should a hazardous event occur. Education for Disaster Risk Reduction promotes critical thinking and problem-solving as well as social and emotional life skills which are essential to the empowerment of groups threatened or affected by disasters.

Iran is crossed by several major faults, 90% of whom are seismically active and subject to many earthquakes each year. Qazvin Province, which is located among active zones, suffers less earthquakes, but these may be more powerful because stresses have longer to build. Occurring earthquakes often affected rural settlement and societies. The main aim of the article is to respond how is the role of education in risk management and decreasing vulnerability level of rural areas based on earthquake in Qazvin province? The purposes of this article are to outline the existing seismic risk in Qazvin and to identify the crucial role of education in advancing culture of safety and the resilience of Qazvin rural communities to destructive earthquakes.

From objective points of view, this paper is practical kind of research and from analytic points of view; it would be categorized as the qualitative and quantitative research. The information contained in this article is based on a variety of sources and have been collected by means of both documentary and questionnaire techniques.

This research has adopted or adopts the qualitative and quantitative methods to respond to  (or to answer a basic question) a basic question. To formulate the strategies of earthquake risk reduction 29 villages were selected by cluster sampling and then it was estimated the samples by Cochrane method. For data collection, 386 households were selected by random method.

According to the research topic, the main criteria divided into two groups: formal and informal education. The formal education includes indicators as the number of showed films, corrugated education about earthquake and the informal education encompasses indices as  the effect of media or institutions raising awareness for earthquake, the effect of the earthquake, affected rural and peoples and finally experiences  concerning  the earthquake training.

Based on the results of the current research, the level of education plays an important role in enhancing the effects of hazards and ensuing vulnerability of rural areas after the occurrence of natural hazards (earthquakes).

The result of this research also shows that the rural or regions of Qazvin province are the more vulnerable and the range of knowledge of peoples about earthquake risk is low. It is necessary to consider the earthquake risk management to (or so as to) decrease the earthquake risk among the studied regions/areas in all earthquake phases. In order to reduce the vulnerability of rural settlements in Qazvin County, it is necessary to increase awareness and knowledge.

Regarding/ considering the results of this research and the role of education in risk reduction to  reduce the vulnerability of rural spaces, some strategies such as strengthening disaster risk management awareness, increasing knowledge among rural residents, improving communication skills regarding/concerning disaster risk management  have been proposed.

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Prioritizing the counties of Sistan and Baluchestan province in order to optimize the management of drought budget
 
Abstract
Drought is one of the most significant natural hazards which affects various aspects of human life with its gradual, slow and creeping occurrence. As a disastrous climate phenomenon, it directly impacts on human communities through making changes in access to water resources, and imposes enormous economic, social and environmental costs on various communities. One of the strategies governments always use to compensate the damages that droughts impose on various economic, social and environmental sectors is to include special financial loans in the form of grants, special development credits, special structural projects, and so on. Therefore, in this regard, a lot of financial aids have been allocated by the government for it. But, sometimes, it is observed that the allocation and distribution of drought credits among different cities of the province have been more influenced by political, ethnic, and religious interests rather than by the severity of the drought and its detrimental effects on various economic, agricultural, and social sectors. Therefore, in this study, it has been tried to present a method based on an optimization model in order to take a step in optimizing the management of drought budget based on realities in Sistan and Baluchestan province in south-east of Iran.
In this study, the indicators proposed by the Cabinet of Ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran for reducing the effects of drought were applied to manage the optimal distribution of drought budgets among the cities of Sistan and Baluchestan province in southeast of  Iran. These indicators were population, having urban and rural drinking water, vulnerability of water resources, surface area under cultivation, number of users of agricultural sector, annual consumption of agricultural water, and rainfall. Using the figures given in the 2011 statistical yearbook, numerical values ​​for each of these indices were obtained. But given that these indices are not of equal importance in each city and some may be more important in one city and less important in another, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique using paired comparison method was applied to determine the relative importance of these indices in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Using this technique, a relative weight was determined for each of these indicators and for each city. In addition to determining the weight of these indices, it was needed to convert droughts in the province to numerical values. In this study, to analyze droughts in Sistan and Baluchestan province, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which is one of the proposed indicators of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been used for a period of 30 years (1984-2014) and for 6 synoptic stations.
The results of drought analysis in Sistan and Baluchestan province in an annual scale showed that the frequency distribution of different drought levels in Sistan and Baluchestan province has not been uniform, with the most droughts occurring in this 30 year period in northern part of the province (Zabol and Zahedan) including 14 and 13 repeated cases; respectively, with the lowest in central part of Baluchistan (Khash and Saravan) including 11 repeated cases. But, what should be noted after the frequency of droughts is the persistence and durability of droughts. As a result, weak but long-lasting droughts can be much more damaging than severe but short-lived droughts. Sistan and Baluchestan province has been under drought with varying degrees of severity from the water year of 1998-1999 to the water year of 2005-2006. But in the meantime, the north of Sistan and Baluchestan province (Zabol station) has a condition which is very different from other parts of the province. The north of Sistan and Baluchistan province has been experiencing severe droughts for 14 years from the year 1999-2000 to 2012-2013 with the exception of the year 2004-2005. It has been the long-term drought persistence in the province that has caused many environmental, economic and social problems, such as the drying up of Lake Hamoun and the water reduction in the Hirmand River in the north of the province, and severe reduction of groundwater resources in central Baluchistan. Therefore, given that Sistan and Baluchestan province has experienced 7 years of continuous drought between the two water years of 1998-1999 to 2009-2010, these seven years were chosen as examples, and the ant colony algorithm was implemented on them.
Based on the selected criteria and the proposed method, it seems that the combination of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique and Ant colony algorithm can formulate an intelligent system to determine the priority of the cities in Sistan and Baluchestan province during droughts for allocating the optimal budget and reducing the harmful effects of droughts. Based on the prioritization maps of optimal drought budget allocation among the cities in Sistan and Baluchestan province, an almost good agreement can be observed between the results and the realities existing in the province.
Keywords: Sistan and Baluchestan, ant colony algorithm, Analytical Hierarchy Process, budget, Management
 
 
 

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Ecologically-based Management Factors and criteria of River-Valleys in Tehran metropolis-Case Study: River-Valleys of Kan
 
Abstract:
Iran has seasonal rivers because of dry climate, low rainfall and different topography. These river- valleys have main role in forming, genesis, and sustainability of human settlements and provide different ecological services. The main services include beauty, store of green spaces, water supply, reduce and create temperature differences, local air flow and natural ventilation which are part of the functions. Tehran is roughly the same area as 730 square kilometers and its population is 8.7 million people. It is located in51^° and 17^´ to 51^° and 33^´ east longitude and 35^° and 36^´ to 35^° and 44^´ north latitude. The height of this city is 900 to 1800 meters. The north and north east of this city are located in peculiarity range of the southern part of the middle Alborz. This city includes 7 river valleys to the names Darabad, Golabdareh, Darband, Velenjak, Darakeh, Farahzad and Kan. The ecological role of these river valleys is reduced because of non- ecological axis developmental interventions by urban management and citizens. These interventions have changed river valleys to high risk space of skirt movements and flood. Kan is the most important river valley because of the breadth of the basin and permanent water discharge rate. The part of this river valley has changed to park (Javanmardan) by municipality. The purpose of this research is that to provide factors and criteria of ecosystem based management to organize this river valley.
ANP has been used in this research. To use this method for analyzing   factors and criteria of ecosystem based management to organize this river valley, firstly, these factors have been identified by library studies and scrolling. These factors include 4 criteria (natural: 15 sub criteria, social: 3, management:  6, economic: 2). the books, journals, reports, maps, aerial photos, satellite images and internet sites have been studied in library studies. In site studies, some information from library studies have been edited. After that, the findings of these two methods in form of questionnaire called factors and criteria of ecosystem based management to organize Kan River valley, was in charge academics and professionals. They were elected among pundits of urban management science, urban planning, geography and environment in Tehran. At first the number of them was 30 people came to agreement in two process about 4 factors and 18 criteria and determined importance and priority by Delphy method. Findings in Delphy method were analyzed through ANP and SUPER DECISIONS. In this process, firstly, a conceptual model and relation inter and intra clusters and nodes determined. These relations in this process are very important because paired comparison depends on this process. Assumption of equality of effects and similar relations in these factors is illogical because there are the grading of effects and relations in this research. Second, the factors have been compared to each other to create a super matrix based on paired comparison. Generally, in this process decision makers compare two different factors to each other and paired comparisons have grading of between1to9. In double- sided valuation, each factor is used to show initial inverse comparison. Inconsistent rate in paired comparison must be less than 0.1 like AHP. Third initial super matrix is created. It is the weights created from paired comparison and identified the importance of each factor in each cluster. Forth, the weighted super matrix was created. The weights of clusters was calculated in this process to identify the weight of final super matrix. Fifth, limited super matrix was created. The weighted super matrix reached for infinity band each row convergenced to a number and that number was the weight of factor. By this way limited super matrix was reached.
Based on ANP and table 1, management: 46%, natural – ecological: 26% and economic and social factors: 14% are important respectively in ecosystem based management to organize Kan River valley. Based on reached results, inconsistent rate is 0.003 and it shows that the weight is valid and review is not necessary. Among sub criteria in management factor, organizational pattern: 32%, method of management: 23% and policies: 21% are the most important respectively in ecosystem based management to organize Kan River valley. Among sub criteria in natural- ecological factor, flood, domain movements and building and texture of soil are the most important respectively 23%, 18% and 11.5% also in social factor, participation, security and public trust have the importance respectively equal to 49% 31% 19%. In economic factor, environmental assets and stakeholder’s economic participation have the same importance.
Based on this research, management factor (organizational pattern and the method of management) is the most important in ecosystem based management. But this approach, the management pattern and intervention to organize this river valley, need comprehensiveness and integrity of the subject (nature, society, management and economic), purpose (protection, resuscitation and use), factors (government, city council, municipality, private sector and people), duties (policy making, planning, designing and perform), method (collaborative), tools (knowledge, skill, rule, program, budget, machinery and materials) and management domain. Use of these factors and criteria need some infrastructure and reforms. The most important reform is reform of management structure, production of subject matter and topical program special to organize river valleys by ecological approach to release Kan of loading and contradictory grabbing.so this management can follow protection, resuscitation, sustainable use and continuity of ecological services.
 
Key words: ecosystem, ecosystem based management, analytic network process, river valley of Kan
 
 

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Investigation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Seymarreh Basin by Using CMIP5 Series Climate Models
 
Abstract
Panel reports on climate change suggest that climate change around the world is most likely due to human factors. Temperature and precipitation are two important parameters in the climate of a region whose variations and fluctuations affect different areas such as agriculture, energy, tourism and so on. Seymareh basin is one of the most significant sub-basins of Karkheh. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature of the Seymareh Basin in 2021-2040 period. These effects were analyzed at selected stations with uncertainties related to atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5 models under two scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 through LARS-WG statistical model. Then the uncertainties of the models and scenarios were investigated by comparing the monthly outputs of the models by the coefficients of determination coefficient (R²) in the forthcoming period (2021-2040) with the base period (1980–2010). The root mean square error (RMSE) calculations presented the best model and scenarios for generating future temperature and precipitation data.            
The Seymareh catchment is the largest and the main Karkheh sub-basin that covers parts of Kermanshah, Lorestan and Ilam provinces. The length of the largest river at the basin level to the site of the Seymareh Reservoir Dam is approximately 475 km, and the area of the basin is 26,700 km². Geographic coordinates of the basin are from 33° 16 ́ 03 ̋to 34°59 ́ 29 ̋north latitudes and 46°6 ́9 ̋to ̋ 5 ́ 0 ° 49 Eastern longitudes, minimum basin height 698 m at the dam outlet and its maximum height 3,638 m. It is on the western highlands of Borujerd.
The information used in this study was obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country. For this study, three synoptic stations of Kermanshah, Hamadan and Khorramabad, which had the highest statistical records and had appropriate distribution at basin level, were used. These data included daily and monthly temperature and precipitation information, and sunshine hours.
The LARS-WG fine-scale exponential model was proposed by Rasko et al., Semnoff and Barrow (1981). We used daily data at stations under current and future weather conditions. In order to select the best GCM model from the models mentioned above, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine data were entered daily in the base period (1980–2010) and data were generated for five models under two scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 for the period 2040–2021. The data were generated in 100 random series and the mean of required variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall) were extracted monthly in the period 2021-2040. Then, root mean square error (RMSE) and determination coefficient (R²) were used to evaluate the performance of the models and compare the results.
To ensure the models' ability to generate data in the coming period, computational data from the model and observational data at the stations under study should have been compared. The capability of the LARS-WG model in modeling the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and radiation at the stations under study was completely consistent with the observed data. The model's ability to exemplify rainfall was also acceptable, however the highest modeling error was related to March rainfall.
By comparing the observed and produced data including monthly average precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures through five mentioned models with their indices, the best model and scenario for future fabrication were determined. The results of this comparison showed that among the available models, HADGEM2-ES model under RCP 4.5 scenario had the best result for precipitation and HADGEM2-ES under RCP 8.5 scenario predicted the best result for maximum temperature. Determining the best model, precipitation data, minimum temperature and maximum temperature produced in the selected models and scenarios were analyzed to investigate the climate change temperature and precipitation for the future period.
The results of this study indicated that due to the wide range of output variations of different models and scenarios, by not taking into account the uncertainties of the models and scenarios can have a great impact on the results of the studies. It was also found in this study that the LARS-WG exponential model was capable of modeling precipitation data and baseline temperature in the study area, so that the radiation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were completely consistent with the data.
The observations are consistent and the models' ability to predict rainfall is very good and acceptable manner. In investigating the uncertainties caused by atmospheric general circulation models and existing scenarios, the best model to predict precipitation in the study area is HADGEM2-ES model under RCP 8.5 scenario, the best model for temperature estimation model HADGEM2-ES under RCP scenario No. 4.5.
The overall results of this study revealed that the average precipitation in the basin will decrease by 4.5% on average, while the minimum temperature will be 1.5° C and the maximum temperature will be 2.17° C. The highest increase will be due to the warmer months of the year. Notable are the disruptions of rainfall distribution and the high temperatures will have significantly negative consequences than rainfall reduction.
 

• : Climate Change, Climate Scenarios, Uncertainty, LARS-WG, Seymareh.

 
 

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Vulnerability assessment of Miangaran wetland ecosystem

To support the proper management of ecosystems, vulnerability analysis of ecosystems is very important. Vulnerability analysis of ecosystems provides information about weaknesses and capacity of the studied ecosystem for recovery after damage. Considering the degradation status of Miangaran wetland, vulnerability evaluation of this wetland is one of the most important management methods in the region. For this purpose, in this study, after identifying and evaluating the threatening factors of Miangaran wetland, these factors were scored using evaluation matrices. Then, the interaction between these values ​​and threatening factors was examined and the vulnerability of wetland values ​​was obtained by multiplying the scores of all studied factors. Finally, management solutions were presented to deal with the most important threatening factors. According to the results, the most vulnerability is to the hydrological and ecological values ​​of the wetland. The highest effects of threats on the ecological value are also on the birds of Miangaran wetland. The results of the evaluation of Miangaran Wetland show that this wetland has a high potential for ecosystem functions of the wetland. These functions have been neglected in the planning and managing of wetlands at the local, regional and national levels. As a result, ecosystem-based management is suggested as the best management approach. The management in these areas should take action to prevent the vulnerability of Miangaran wetland. Also, the vulnerability evaluation method used in this study can provide a good understanding of the relationship between wetland functions and the resulting services for the management of the ecosystem of Miangaran Wetland.
Key words: Miangaran wetland, ecosystem management, vulnerability assessment

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Soil erosion is one of the environmental problems that is a threat to natural resources, agriculture and the environment, and in this regard, assessing the temporal and spatial amount of soil erosion has an effective role in management, erosion control and watershed management. The main aim of this study was to estimate soil erosion in Amoqin watershed and its relationship with well-known vegetation-based and topographic-related indices. The meteorological data has been used to determine the rainfall erosivity. The rainfall erosivity index was calculated using the modified Fournier index during the 10-year available recorded rainfall data. The value of LS factor has been calculate using digital elevation model. Meanwhile, C and P factors were determined based on the utilization scheme and condition of the study area. Data were analyzed and processed using ArcMap 10.1, ENVI 5.3, and Excel software. In this study, RUSLE model was used to estimate soil erosion, in GIS environment. According to the results, the amount of factor R in Amoqin watershed varies from 12.32 to 50.52 MJ/ha/h per year. The variation of soil erodibility index (K) over the study area is between 0.25 to 0.42. The amount of LS factor varies between 0.19 and 0.38, which is more in high slopes, especially around the waterways and uplands of the study area. The variation of C factor was estimated to be around -0.18 to 0.4. In general, it can be said that the central part of Amoqin watershed has less C value due to the greater area of agricultural activities and the highest amount is related to western areas, especially southwest areas because existing the rangeland areas. Due to the lack of protective measures in the study area, the amount of factor P was considered as unity for the whole region. The base layers of RUSLE factors were obtained and overlayed in GIS to calculate the soil loss in tons per hectare per year. The map of annual soil loss indicate that the erosion amounts varies between 1.21 to 5.53 tons per hectare per year in different parts of the study area. According to the results, the vegetation factor with a coefficient of determination 0.47% had a significant correlation with soil loss. The stream power index with the coefficient of determination of % 0.07% had the lowest correlation with soil erosion values.

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Investigation of Construction Wastes Release in Roadside Using AHP

Introduction
Although construction waste is an integral part of municipal waste, due to the differences between this waste and waste and environmental issues, a suitable model should be designed for optimal productivity and acquisition of resources. The increasing volume of urban materials and rubbish, especially the rubbish from the destruction of their construction and worn-out urban textures, has created many problems in large cities, as well as environmental problems that have arisen due to unprincipled and unprofessional disposal of these materials. Has attracted these materials. Research shows that the amount of this waste is equal to 10 to 15% of the total materials used in construction operations. This amount is much higher than what is estimated by the estimators.

Data and research method
In Iran and other developing countries, construction and construction waste is a major part of municipal waste, which in addition to high costs for its disposal, also has adverse consequences on the environment. The volume of this garbage is so much that now this issue has become a social and environmental problem not only in Iran but also in developed countries due to the limitation of natural resources and preservation of national capital for future generations as well as environmental protection And it is necessary because with proper management and efficient planning and reducing the volume of construction waste, not only the waste of natural resources and national capital is prevented, but also additional and ancillary costs are reduced and it is economically beneficial.
In this study, first, the effective criteria in selecting the burial site in the study area are determined. These criteria are reviewed and used by various standards, including standards related to the Environmental Protection Organization, the Ministry of Interior and international standards, as well as by reviewing resources and studies on the process of locating landfills in the country and abroad and by examining the conditions of the region. The study and the influencing factors are compiled in the study area. The layers related to each criterion in the relevant table will be prepared, processed and converted from the relevant organizations. The method of this dissertation is applied-modeling in terms of purpose, because on the one hand, the concepts and rules related to the field of knowledge are carefully analyzed, and on the other hand, the relationships between these concepts and rules are evaluated and determined by experts. In this study, there is a need to use the decision theory method to evaluate and investigate the status of construction waste disposal along roads to increase trust and confidence in decision making.
The data analysis tools of this research are SPSS, Expert Choice and Matlab for conducting the research. In the research process, after data collection, the next step involves data analysis. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to evaluate the reliability of the localization tools of the research components. In order to describe the data, the mean and standard deviation of the research data have been used.

The four-step process of multi-criteria decision-making process and fuzzy logic calculations to investigate the dumping of construction debris along roadsides is as follows:
Step 1 - Modeling causal relationships based on similarity to the ideal solution
Step 2 - Parallel comparisons and determining the weight of causal relationships based on the evaluation of decision options between the criteria for assessing the status of construction debris on the sidewalks,
Step 3 - Prioritize Based on Causal Relationships Based on Evaluation of Decision Options
 Step 4 - Fuzzy Prioritization and Final Analysis Investigation of Construction Waste Disposal Status

Result and Discussion
The most important results of the study of the dumping of construction debris along the roadsides are that,
1- The most important criterion in the cluster "Environmental factors of construction waste disposal" with code (A), "Soil pollution in the city" with code (AB) with fuzzy network weight of 0.096; And
2- The most important criteria in the cluster "Applications of GIS in urban management of construction debris disposal" with code (B), "Urban green space management" with code (BA) with fuzzy network weight equal to 0.191; And "Urban management related to health" with code (BB) with fuzzy network weight equal to 0.120; Were calculated. on the other hand,
3- The most important criterion in the cluster "Economic factors of construction waste disposal" with code (C), "Construction waste management training cost" with code (CD) with fuzzy network weight equal to 0.123; Prioritized,

conclusion
The results of the present study can be said that, after reviewing the theoretical foundations of the research and reviewing the research background, it was found that due to research gaps in the fields of economic factors of construction waste disposal, GIS applications in urban management, construction waste disposal, environmental factors, Utilization of a combined fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methodology to investigate the status of construction debris dumping along roadsides; It is possible to realize the innovation of the present research in filling the mentioned research gaps.

Key words: Construction Debris, Civil Waste Management, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Karaj.

 

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Landslide risk assessment is essential for all landslide damage mitigation plans. The purpose of this research is to assess the risk of landslides in the Shahrood watershed of Qazvin province. First, the landslide susceptibility map was prepared using fuzzy operators. the landslide distribution map and also 11 effective factor layers including slope, slope direction, altitude, land use, lithology, distance to road, distance to stream, distance to fault, earthquake acceleration, precipitation, and maximum daily precipitation were first prepared. After determining the frequency ratio and fuzzy membership values for the map classes of different factors, the landslide susceptibility map was prepared using different gamma values. Then, after preparing the fuzzy map of vulnerability for different land use units, the amount of landslide risk was determined from the product of two maps of landslide susceptibility and vulnerability. In general, 104 landslides with a total area of 1401 hectares were recorded in this region, 70% of which were used for modeling (73 landslides with an area of 982 hectares) and the remaining 30% (31 landslides with an area of 418 hectares) were used to assess the accuracy. The evaluation results showed that the highest value of Qs index (equal to 1.34) belongs to the gamma equal to 0.93 and therefore this model has higher accuracy than other gamma values. The importance of features at risk ranges from 0.05 (no coverage) to 1 (residential and industrial areas). To deal with landslide damages, three general policies including suitable for development, prevention, and treatment were proposed, which should be applied based on the two factors of risk and vulnerability for different areas of landslide risk. Finally, in order to reduce landslide damages, suitable land uses for high-risk regions were introduced. 

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