Journal of Spatial Analysis

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Climate and weather conditions are among the most important factors in controlling our daily and even long-term activities. Since the emergence of human beings, the weather has been effective in our lives. Changes in precipitation and temperature, solar radiation and other climatic parameters, have had so much impact on people’s lives that as far back as the first periods of human lives, we have been witnessing the climate change, and these factors have determined the way of our lives. Since the old days, the scientists of criminology, sociology and psychology have considered the influence of nature and different circumstances on the crime and its rate. Hippocrates and Montesquieu were the oldest ones that studied about the impact of climate on effects and aggressive behavior. The main objectives of this research are as follows: Understanding the climatic regions of Kurdistan Province, and assessing the relationship between the climatic regions of the provinces and the aggression rate. From a psychological perspective, aggression is a behavior whose aim is to harm others or oneself with a conscious intent. The main idea of this study is to consider the theory that whether there is any connection between natural factors, especially the weather, and the mood, temperament and the aggression rate of people. For this purpose, and for climatic zoning of Kurdistan, we have used the surface data of all synoptic stations in Kurdistan as well as the stations around the province from their establishment until 2005 (25 stations). Using these data, 2068 cells (with approximate dimensions of 7/3 * 7/3 km²) in Kurdistan were appraised every day according to the Kriging interpolation. By applying the cluster analysis to these data, two main climatic zones were identified in Kurdistan. The hot-humid region was including the cities Bane, Marivan, Sarouabad, Sanandaj and Kamyaran, and the cold-dry region, was including the cities Saghez, Diwandareh, Bijar, Ghorveh and Dehgolan. Then in each of these regions, in the number of the samples which were obtained through Cochran formula (768 samples), the Buss and Perry questionnaires were distributed and collected. The new version of the Aggression Questionnaire, whose previous versions was hostile questionnaire, was revised by Buss and Perry (This is a self-report questionnaire that contains 29 words and four subscales).The prototype questionnaire has 52 questions, but a lot of weak questions of the questionnaire have been excluded using the factor analysis method, and it has turned into a questionnaire with 29 questions. Finally, the results of the questionnaires were analyzed through SPSS, using the t test for the independent groups. The results of this study indicate that the physical and verbal aggression rate and the level of anger and hostility among the residents of the cold regions of Kurdistan are higher than the residents of warmer regions. The results also showed that the level of aggression among the men is higher than women. The aggression among the men mostly appears in a physical form, while women make it in its verbal form. Also, in the hot-humid areas, the level of anger and hostility among the women is more than men. According to the data analysis, we can say that the results of this study are consistent with the findings of some researchers, though in some cases the results are not consistent with other researches. The assessment of the geographical environment has not concerned the scientists alone, and philosophers like Ibn Sina, Sociologists like Ibn Khaldun, and writers and thinkers such as Al-Jahiz have looked at geographical factors from other perspectives, and have examined its relationship with ethics and human behaviors. In conclusion, we can say that the results of this study are non-aligned with the results of the studies that have examined the effect of weather conditions on the temperament or real aggression. But the results of this study are consistent with the researches that have investigated the potential of aggression. Therefore, we can say that in a short period of time, warm weather conditions can predispose one to aggression, but to live in the warm climates, may raise people`s patience at the end, and make them able to control themselves at the occurrence of aggression. The results of this study indicate that in Kurdistan province, the extent of potential aggression is higher among the residents of the cold regions (Saghez, Diwandareh, Bijar, Ghorveh and Dehgolan) than the inhabitants of the tropic ones (Bane, Marivan, Sarouabad, Sanandaj, and Kamyaran). To justify these findings, we can say that freezing creates a sense of insecurity in people because we experimentally see that the residents of a cold region need to work constantly in order to keep their bodies warm. They need to have a secure plan for the winter, so that they can make enough food, fuel and clothing. This coherent planning makes them more active in comparison with the residents of the tropical regions. An unfavorable and difficult living environment emboldens people. The people who belong to these areas are pragmatic, and their approach to the environment is competitive or aggressive. In contrast, the people who live in the relatively warmer climate have usually less activity. The property of this kind of temperament is laziness and inertia. Working in hot places is unpleasant because it makes people sweat, and it makes them tired soon. Another finding of this study is that in the whole province, in both cold and warm climates, the aggression among men is more than women, and this difference is greater in cold areas. The men spend most of their time outside the houses, and because of this, the effect of climate is more on them, but women are living most of their time at home, and they can take advantage of the air conditioning equipment. Thus, they have a more relaxed and flexible temperament.

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Modeling Drought Effects on Sustainable Livelihoods of Small Scale Farmers in Rural Settlements of Kurdistan Province
1. Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Khuzestan Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
2. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran
3. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran
4. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran
 
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are local and context-specific, though connected to complex processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales. As such, there is a growing awareness that place-based studies of current and past responses to climatic stress can shed light on the capacity of a given system to respond to future climate change. There is also a growing appreciation of the importance of institutions—formal and informal—in shaping adaptation strategies and mediating the adaptive capacity of households and communities. While rural resource-dependent communities have historically coped with climatic fluctuations, whether such coping mechanisms are still successful today, and will be in the future, depends on the structure of supporting institutions and the way in which they mediate access to entitlements.  Indeed, most social–ecological systems have undergone dramatic change in the last century due to climatic, landscape, and institutional shifts. Because coping mechanisms are developed in relation to particular landscapes, livelihoods, and institutions, social and ecological changes have altered relations across these elements, impacting the effectiveness of particular coping strategies. For instance, pastoralists have historically deployed a suite of coping mechanisms in response to the highly variable climate of semi-arid and arid landscapes. Yet, these capacities may be increasingly compromised in the rangelands of East Africa due to increasing exposure to climate extremes, such as flood and drought and shifting institutional environments. The mechanisms that pastoralists in East Africa historically utilized to cope with climate variability were part of a tightly coupled system where livelihoods, institutions, and landscapes were mutually reinforcing. Pastoralists’ livelihoods were co-produced with a savanna mosaic landscape managed as a common property system by formal and informal customary institutions.
Farmers frequently cope with risks due to the uncertainty of climatic conditions .Population growth,  changes in agricultural policies, environmental regulations and the degradation of natural resources such as soil and water also present farmers with numerous challenges. Although farmers have experience in coping with a certain degree of uncertainty, increased climate variability and changes may cause severe problems. Drought in particular is a climatic disaster that creates substantial costs for farmers and affects their agricultural systems extensively. Drought is the most complex of all natural hazards . making the arid and semi-arid regions of the world vulnerable. Although drought has not been well documented ,  the resource-dependent sectors such as agriculture are the most vulnerable to the impact of this phenomenon. A review of the long-term annual precipitation trends indicated that drought had a worldwide return frequency of every 20e30 years .  However, in the last 50 years, some countries such as Iran and Bangladesh have experienced approximately 27 and 19  drought events, respectively. Therefore, for arid and semiarid regions, drought is a recurrent feature that could lead to the loss of crop production, food shortages and starvation  if not managed appropriately. According todrought impacts could be managed at macro (national), mesa (local) and micro (village and household) levels. However, the micro-level management (i.e., what the farmers do in response to drought) is of great importance. A review of the studies of farmers’ decision-making in response to climate variability revealed that most research has focused on the decision event and not on the entire process.
The main Purpose of this study was to modeling drought effects drought effects on sustainable livelihoods of small scale farmers in rural settlements. Statistical population of this study consisted of all Small-Scale Farming in Kurdistan province. Using Kerjcie & Morgan sampling table, 402 person were selected as the sample using stratified proportional sampling method. The instrument of the study was a questionnaire which its validity was confirmed by a Content validity and construct validity and its reliability was established by calculating Chronbach's Alpha and Combined reliability Coefficient (α>0.7). 
The results of Man- Kendall test showed that the level of aquatic and dry crops, along with the amount of crop production, has increased over time but there is no statistically significant effect on dry production. Also, the results showed that in the economic aspect, the greatest impact on distribution of income and living expenses, in the social dimension, on location affiliation and security and social welfare, the environmental dimension has had an impact on environmental pollution and land resources and on institutional aspects more on the cooperation and participation of the people.
In addition, the results of structural equation modeling showed that drought had the most impact on sustainability livelihood dimensions, respectively, on social, environmental, economic and institutional dimensions.
Keywords
Sustainable livelihood, drought, small scale farmers, rural settlements, Kurdistan province
 
 
 

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This regard, this research was conducted with the general purpose of designing a proposed sustainable food security model in drought conditions. The statistical population consisted of a number of food safety experts and agricultural experts. Therefore, for selecting the samples, targeted snowball sampling (chain referencing) was used. Sampling continued until data saturation, in the end, the number of participants in the study reached 31 . The research method was of qualitative type based on the data theory method of the foundation. The research data were collected using a deep interview and group discussion and analyzed with three open, axial and selective coding methods.
The results of the review of the requirements of sustainable food security in the form of data approach of the foundation consisted of 68 initial codes. Finally, in order to design a safety improvement model, the improvement of food security in drought conditions was subject to 8 requirements (managerial, technological, policy and supportive, infrastructure, cultural and empowerment requirements, Diversification, conservation, stabilization) and were inserted into the Strauss and Corbin model.
Access to adequate nutrition and nutritional health is one of the main pillars of development and is the basis for the future development of the country. According to studies on the role of nutrition in health, its efficiency and its relation with economic development has been confirmed. Also, access to adequate and desirable food is one of the earliest human rights, but various studies show that rural communities, which themselves are responsible for food security, face food insecurity, which is in a drought condition much more inferior to the situation. Because rural households are always at the forefront of drought vulnerability and, in the absence of risk mitigation systems, they quickly lose their resilience and go out of the agricultural sector. Therefore, measures must be taken to enable them to continue to operate in agriculture in drought conditions and to maintain the backbone of food security in the country.