---

There are different methods to investigate the effects of climatic fluctuations on the biota, two of which, molecular phylogeography and SDM, are the most useful tools to trace the past climate induced modifications on species’ geographic distributions. In this study, seven samples were collected from the species distribution range in Iran for the purpose of measuring the genetic variation within the Iranian spiny-tailed lizards, using cytochrome b. SDM was carried out by 41 presence points and bioclimatic variables for the present and future climatic conditions (by the year 2050), employing the statistical package ‘sdm’ in order to implement the ensemble model. The results of genetic analyses revealed that the specimens from Bastak in Hormozgan Province are distinguishable from all other specimens. Haplotype diversity was calculated as 0.8. The haplotype network illustrated that the central haplotype is located in the central Iranian Plateau. Moreover, the ensemble model predicted that, while the suitable habitats of this species were found to be in the south of Iran and the Iranian Central Plateau in the present climatic conditions, there will be a decrease in the extent of these patches and Baluchistan will be added as a suitable habitat in 2050. Generally, both genetic studies and modeling predictions suggested that the western and southern specimens (Bastak in Hormozgan) were divided according to the separation of their habitats. In addition, based on modeling scenarios in the future, the optimal habitat for the species is located in the central haplotype area.
 
 

---

Climate change is currently considered a serious threat for many species and recognized as one of the most important factors in the global biodiversity loss. Among animal groups, amphibians are known to be among the most sensitive groups of vertebrates to climate change due to their inability to travel long distances, and mountain habitat species are more exposed to climate change pressures than other species. Therefore, in this study, the current distribution potential of five species of amphibians living in the Zagros Mountains was assesed and their response to climate change in 2070 was predicted. To do so, a group approach for modeling the distribution of species (SDMs) was utilized to estimate the risks of losing the desired habitat potential in the event of climate change. Also, to estimate the desired habitat area in the context of climate change, calculations related to habitat area changes for each species were performed. Predictions showed that two out of five species studied, i.e., Azarbaijan Mountain Newt (Neurergus crocatus) and Yellow Spotted Newt (Neurergus derjugini) negatively reaction to climate change and their distribution range was predicted to be decreased and contracted. Habitat displacement behavior in the face of new changes is predictable for two species, i.e., Lorestan Toad (Bufotes luristanicus) and Fire Salamander (Salamandra infraimmaculata semenovi). Considering the speed of climate change in the Zagros Mountains, the present study is a step towards identifying the dynamics of habitat changes affecting amphibians of Zasgros region to cope with the impacts of climate change.