Volume 15, Issue 55 (Spring 2026)
serd 2026, 15(55): 0-0 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Ghasemi M, Fakhari S, Jafari E. Identifying Key Local Drivers Influencing Tourism Development Using a Futures Studies Approach: A Case Study of Ferdows County (Iran). serd 2026; 15 (55) : 3
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4089-en.html
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4089-en.html
1- Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran ,s.fakhari@khu.ac.ir
2- Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran ,
Abstract: (25 Views)
Objective: This study aims to identify the key local drivers influencing tourism development in Ferdows County, Iran, with a future-oriented perspective toward the 1414 Horizon (2035).
Methods: The research is applied in purpose and employs a mixed-methods design. The study population consisted of tourism experts, managers, and stakeholders in Ferdows County. Using snowball sampling and the principle of theoretical saturation, 30 experts were selected for the qualitative phase. Data were collected through structured interviews and a futures studies cross-impact questionnaire. The identified drivers were analyzed using the MICMAC structural analysis model.
Results: The results revealed fifteen local drivers affecting tourism development. Among these, the most influential drivers were social security and safety in tourism destinations and attractions (+15), promotion and preservation of indigenous handicrafts (+11), development of local tourism infrastructure (+7), branding and marketing of local tourism products (+7), preservation of historical assets and cultural heritage (+5), and tourism investment and financial support (+1).
Conclusions: By adopting a futures studies approach, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of both local and extra-local factors affecting tourism development. The findings offer strategic insights for policymakers and tourism planners seeking to enhance the long-term competitiveness and sustainability of tourism in Ferdows County.
Methods: The research is applied in purpose and employs a mixed-methods design. The study population consisted of tourism experts, managers, and stakeholders in Ferdows County. Using snowball sampling and the principle of theoretical saturation, 30 experts were selected for the qualitative phase. Data were collected through structured interviews and a futures studies cross-impact questionnaire. The identified drivers were analyzed using the MICMAC structural analysis model.
Results: The results revealed fifteen local drivers affecting tourism development. Among these, the most influential drivers were social security and safety in tourism destinations and attractions (+15), promotion and preservation of indigenous handicrafts (+11), development of local tourism infrastructure (+7), branding and marketing of local tourism products (+7), preservation of historical assets and cultural heritage (+5), and tourism investment and financial support (+1).
Conclusions: By adopting a futures studies approach, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of both local and extra-local factors affecting tourism development. The findings offer strategic insights for policymakers and tourism planners seeking to enhance the long-term competitiveness and sustainability of tourism in Ferdows County.
Article number: 3
Keywords: Futures Studies, Local Drivers, Tourism Development, Ferdows County, Structural Model (MICMAC).
References
1. Adongo, C. A., Badu-Baiden, F., & Boakye, K. A. A. (2017). The tourism experience-led length of stay hypothesis. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 18, 65–74. [DOI:10.1016/j.jort.2017.02.003.]
2. Arumugam, A., Nakkeeran, S., & Subramaniam, R. (2023). Exploring the factors influencing heritage tourism development: A model development. Sustainability, 15(15), 11986. [DOI:10.3390/su151511986]
3. Bazvand, S., Daniyali, T., Azadbakht, B., Bahak, B., & Armaghan, S. (2021). Investigating the effects of rural tourism on economic, social, physical and infrastructural dimensions: A comprehensive case study of host villages (Afrineh, Pran Parviz and Vali Asr) in Poldokhtar. Geography (Regional Planning), 11(45), 825–844. [DOI:10.22034/jgeoq.2021.165058]
4. Benckendorff, P. (2008). Envisioning sustainable tourism futures: An evaluation of the futures wheel method. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 8(1), 25–36. [DOI:10.1057/thr.2008.2]
5. Bertacchini, E., & Dalle Nogare, C. (2021). The economics of cultural tourism: New topics and methods. Tourism Economics, 27(6), 1177–1184. [DOI:10.1177/1354816621993662]
6. Briedenhann, J., & Wickens, E. (2004). Tourism routes as a tool for the economic development of rural areas—Vibrant hope or impossible dream? Tourism Management, 25(1), 71–79. [DOI:10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00063-3]
7. Chen, S., Chan, I. C. C., Xu, S., Law, R., & Zhang, M. (2023). Metaverse in tourism: Drivers and hindrances from stakeholders’ perspective. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 40(2), 169–184. [DOI:10.1080/10548408.2023.21725]
8. Chim-Miki, A. F., Medina-Brito, P., & Batista-Canino, R. M. (2020). Integrated management in tourism: The role of coopetition. Tourism Planning & Development, 17(2), 127–146. [DOI:10.1080/21568316.2019.1570498]
9. Dodds, R., Ali, A., & Galaski, K. (2018). Mobilizing knowledge: Determining key elements for success and pitfalls in developing community-based tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 21(13), 1547–1568. [DOI:10.1080/13683500.2016.1150257]
10. Fan, P., Zhu, Y., Ye, Z., Zhang, G., Gu, S., Shen, Q., Meshram, S. G., & Alvandi, E. (2023). Identification and prioritization of tourism development strategies using SWOT, QSPM, and AHP: A case study of Changbai Mountain in China. Sustainability, 15(6), 4962. [DOI:10.3390/su15064962]
11. Ghalami Cheraghtapeh, M., Darban Astaneh, A., & Khorasani, M. A. (2022). Identifying and analyzing the drivers of rural tourism development (Case study: Urmia City). Journal of Iran Futures Studies, 6(2), 221–244. (in Persian) [DOI:10.30479/jfs.2022.15806.1307]
12. Hall, C. M., Timothy, D. J., & Duval, D. T. (2012). Safety and security in tourism: Relationships, management, and marketing. Routledge. [DOI:10.4324/9780203049464]
13. Hamzah, A., Razzaq, A. R. A., & Mustafa, M. Z. (2023). Community capacity building for sustainable tourism development: Experience from Miso Walai homestay. Annals of Tourism Research, 99, 103543. [DOI:10.1016/j.annals.2023.103543]
14. Javdan, M., Jafarpour Ghalehteimouri, K., Soleimani, M., & Pavee, S. (2024). Community attitudes toward tourism and quality of life: A case study of Palangan village, Iran. Discover Environment, 2, Article 117. (in Persian) [DOI:10.1007/s44274-024-00154-x]
15. Jensen, S. (2018). Is growing urban-based ecotourism good news for the rural poor and biodiversity conservation? A case study of Mikumi, Tanzania. In J. Abbink (Ed.), The environmental crunch in Africa: Growth narratives vs. local realities (pp. 113–135). Palgrave Macmillan. [DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-77131-1_5]
16. Lee, T. H., & Jan, F. H. (2019). Can community-based tourism contribute to sustainable development? Evidence from residents’ perceptions of sustainability. Tourism Management, 70, 368–380. [DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.003]
17. Li, Y., Liu, Y., & Solangi, Y. A. (2024). Analysis of factors and strategies for the implementation of sustainable tourism in a green economic structure in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 434, 140011. [DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140011]
18. Liu, Y., & Suk, S. (2021). Influencing factors of Azerbaijan and China’s sustainable tourism development strategy under the One Belt One Road initiative. Sustainability, 14(1), 187. [DOI:10.3390/su14010187]
19. Mahdian Bahnamiry, M., & Taghvaei, M. (2023). Analysis of key drivers affecting the development of creative tourism with a futuristic approach: Case study: Golestan province. Human Geography Research, 55(1), 105–114. (in Persian) [DOI:10.22059/jhgr.2022.334116.1008415.]
20. Manzam Ismailpour, A. (2021). Tourism impact on quality of life in villages off the coast of Oman. Journal of Applied Researches in Geographical Sciences, 21(63), 381–401. (in Persian) [DOI:10.52547/jgs.21.63.381.]
21. Movahed, A., Aghaei, V., & Ghasemi, M. (2022). Analyzing and spatial classification in urban areas to achieve sustainable tourism: Case study of Ardabil city. Journal of Urban Planning Geography Research, 9(4), 1125–1148. (in Persian) [DOI:10.22059/jurbangeo.2021.317702.1444.]
22. Nabi Zadeh, H., Cheraghi, E., & Moosavi Nadooshan, S. M. (2024). Factors and stimuli affecting the conversion of urban and rural places to tourism brands (Study: Gilan province). Journal of Applied Researches in Geographical Sciences, 24(74), 414–428. (in Persian) [DOI:10.61186/jgs.24.74.23]
23. Nguyen, T. D., Nguyen, N. T., & Thanh, N. N. (2024). Factors affecting sustainable tourism development: Evidence from the Central Highlands of Vietnam. SAGE Open, 14(2). [DOI:10.1177/21582440241240816]
24. Qiu, H., Hsu, C., Li, M., & Shu, B. (2018). Self-drive tourism attributes: Influences on satisfaction and behavioural intention. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), 395–407. [DOI:10.1080/10941665.2018.1445117]
25. Raimkulov, M., Juraturgunov, H., & Ahn, Y.-J. (2021). Destination attractiveness and memorable travel experiences in Silk Road tourism in Uzbekistan. Sustainability, 13(4), 2252. [DOI:10.3390/su13042252]
26. Rezvani, M. R. (2008). Rural tourism development with a sustainable tourism approach. University of Tehran Press, ISBN: 9789640358238, (in Persian)
27. Richards, G. (2020). Designing creative places: The role of creative tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 85, 102922. [DOI:10.1016/j.annals.2020.102922]
28. Shen, F., Hughey, K. F. D., & Simmons, D. G. (2008). Connecting the sustainable livelihoods approach and tourism: A review of the literature. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 15(1), 19–31. [DOI:10.1375/jhtm.15.19]
29. Sirkis, G., Regalado-Pezúa, O., Carvache-Franco, O., & Carvache-Franco, W. (2022). The determining factors of attractiveness in urban tourism: A study in Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Bogota, and Lima. Sustainability, 14(11), 6900. [DOI:10.3390/su14116900]
30. Streimikiene, D., Svagzdiene, B., Jasinskas, E., & Simanavicius, A. (2021). Sustainable tourism development and competitiveness: The systematic literature review. Sustainable Development, 29(1), 259–271. [DOI:10.1002/sd.2133]
31. Stylidis, D., Shani, A., & Belhassen, Y. (2017). Testing an integrated destination image model across residents and tourists. Tourism Management, 58, 184–195. [DOI:10.1016/j.tourman.2016.10.014]
32. Toolabinezhad, M., Poudineh, M. R., & Toolabinezhad, M. (2020). Rural tourism: Management and marketing. Academic Jihad Publications, ISBN: 9786001334832. (in Persian)
33. Vázquez-Gómez, R. A., García, M. O., & Ordaz Mejía, D. A. (2021). Tourism travel patterns and Mexican millennial women: A comparative study of their conditions and meanings. International Journal of Tourism Anthropology, 8(2), 107–128. [DOI:10.1504/IJTA.2021.116090]
34. Wu, M.-Y., & Pearce, P. L. (2014). Host tourism aspirations as a point of departure for the sustainable livelihoods approach. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 22(3), 440–460. [DOI:10.1080/09669582.2013.839689]
35. Zhang, X., Peng, B., Zhou, L., Lu, C., Wang, Y., Liu, R., & Xiang, H. (2024). Tourism development potential and obstacle factors of cultural heritage: Evidence from traditional music in Xiangxi. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 34(2), 309–328. [DOI:10.1007/s11442-024-2206-2]
36. Zulvianti, N., Aimon, H., & Abror, A. (2022). The influence of environmental and non-environmental factors on tourist satisfaction in halal tourism destinations in West Sumatra, Indonesia. Sustainability, 14(15), 9185. [DOI:10.3390/su14159185]
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
