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Ghasemi M, Fakhari S, Jafari E. Identifying Key Local Drivers Influencing Tourism Development Using a Futures Studies Approach: A Case Study of Ferdows County (Iran). serd 2026; 15 (55) : 3
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4089-en.html
URL: http://serd.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4089-en.html
1- Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran ,s.fakhari@khu.ac.ir
2- Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran ,
Abstract: (28 Views)
Objective: This study aims to identify the key local drivers influencing tourism development in Ferdows County, Iran, with a future-oriented perspective toward the 1414 Horizon (2035).
Methods: The research is applied in purpose and employs a mixed-methods design. The study population consisted of tourism experts, managers, and stakeholders in Ferdows County. Using snowball sampling and the principle of theoretical saturation, 30 experts were selected for the qualitative phase. Data were collected through structured interviews and a futures studies cross-impact questionnaire. The identified drivers were analyzed using the MICMAC structural analysis model.
Results: The results revealed fifteen local drivers affecting tourism development. Among these, the most influential drivers were social security and safety in tourism destinations and attractions (+15), promotion and preservation of indigenous handicrafts (+11), development of local tourism infrastructure (+7), branding and marketing of local tourism products (+7), preservation of historical assets and cultural heritage (+5), and tourism investment and financial support (+1).
Conclusions: By adopting a futures studies approach, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of both local and extra-local factors affecting tourism development. The findings offer strategic insights for policymakers and tourism planners seeking to enhance the long-term competitiveness and sustainability of tourism in Ferdows County.
Methods: The research is applied in purpose and employs a mixed-methods design. The study population consisted of tourism experts, managers, and stakeholders in Ferdows County. Using snowball sampling and the principle of theoretical saturation, 30 experts were selected for the qualitative phase. Data were collected through structured interviews and a futures studies cross-impact questionnaire. The identified drivers were analyzed using the MICMAC structural analysis model.
Results: The results revealed fifteen local drivers affecting tourism development. Among these, the most influential drivers were social security and safety in tourism destinations and attractions (+15), promotion and preservation of indigenous handicrafts (+11), development of local tourism infrastructure (+7), branding and marketing of local tourism products (+7), preservation of historical assets and cultural heritage (+5), and tourism investment and financial support (+1).
Conclusions: By adopting a futures studies approach, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of both local and extra-local factors affecting tourism development. The findings offer strategic insights for policymakers and tourism planners seeking to enhance the long-term competitiveness and sustainability of tourism in Ferdows County.
Article number: 3
Keywords: Futures Studies, Local Drivers, Tourism Development, Ferdows County, Structural Model (MICMAC).
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