Dr Moslem Ghasemi, Dr Saeedeh Fakhari, Ehsan Jafari,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (1-2026)
Abstract
“Sustainable tourism development requires the identification of effective factors at various levels, especially at the local level. This study aims to identify key local drivers influencing tourism development in Ferdows County shortly (2014), adopting a futures studies approach. The research is applied in terms of purpose and quantitative in terms of methodology. The statistical population consisted of tourism experts and managers in Ferdows County, from which a sample of 30 individuals was selected using the snowball sampling technique and theoretical saturation. Data were collected through structured interviews and a future cross-impact questionnaire. The data were then analyzed using the structural-interpretive modeling approach (MICMAC analysis) via MICMAC software. Findings revealed that among the 15 identified local drivers, the most influential key internal (local) drivers of tourism development in Ferdows County by the year 1414 include: Enhancing social security at the destination and tourist attractions (+15), Promotion and preservation of indigenous handicrafts (+11), Development of local tourism infrastructure (+7), Branding and marketing of local tourism products (+7), Conservation of historical potentials and local cultural heritage (+5), Investment and financial resource allocation for tourism (+1). The innovation of this study, compared to previous research, lies in its application of a futures studies approach to evaluate both local (internal) and supralocal drivers influencing tourism development within a comprehensive framework
Soroush Fakharian Kashani, Ozra Javanbakht, Sedighe Hashemi Bonab,
Volume 14, Issue 54 (Winter 2026)
Abstract
Objective: The present study aimed to investigate the role of networking of funds supporting the development of agricultural activities in improving the income level of rural and nomadic women entrepreneurs in Urmia County.
Methods: The statistical population of the research is rural and nomadic women who are members of the microcredit fund in Urmia County. Using the Krejci and Morgan table, 182 of them were selected as the study sample. The required data was obtained by filling out the questionnaire using random sampling method. To achieve the study's goal, according to the nature of the dependent variable, which is defined as a binary variable (one for incomes higher and zero for incomes lower than the average income of the selected sample), the logit model was used. The independent variables of the model include social, educational-promotional, organizational, supra-organizational, psychological, infrastructure and supporting, political-legal, and monitoring factors, which are proposed as networking components. Finally, after estimating the logit model using EVIWES software, the marginal effects and elasticities of each independent variable were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the model.
Results: The results obtained from estimating the logit model showed that the variables of educational-promotional, monitoring, infrastructure and support, organizational, political-legal, psychological and supra-organizational factors as networking components have a significant and positive effect on the income level of women members of support funds, and social factors do not have a significant effect. Based on the calculated elasticities, with a one percent improvement in each of the mentioned factors, the income of women members of the fund will increase by 0.84, 0.9, 0.75, 0.66, 0.43, 0.92, and 0.50 percent, respectively. Also, the marginal effects showed that with a one-unit improvement in the mentioned factors, the income of rural and nomadic women increases with a probability of 0.52, 0.63, 0.44, 0.31, 0.27, 0.50, and 0.39 percent, respectively.
Conclusions: Prioritizing the impact of networking components on increasing the income of women members of support funds in Urmia County based on both elasticity and marginal effects showed that the impact of psychological, monitoring, and educational-promotional factors is greater than other components, and political and legal factors have the least impact. Therefore, efforts to improve these factors through providing educational and promotional services and holding business skill courses can be effective in the financial and economic empowerment of rural and nomadic women.
