Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)                   jemr 2017, 8(27): 231-256 | Back to browse issues page

XML Persian Abstract Print

Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Behrouzifar M, Emami Meibodi A, Ghassemi A, Heshmatzadeh M B. OPEC Members' Behavior Analysis on Oil Reserves Announcements: Case Study of Iran. jemr 2017; 8 (27) :231-256
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1451-en.html
OPEC Members' Behavior Analysis on Oil Reserves Announcements: Case Study of Iran
Morteza Behrouzifar * 1, Ali Emami Meibodi2 , Abdolrassoul Ghassemi2 , Mohammad Bagher Heshmatzadeh3
1- Institute for International Energy Economics Studies , behrouzifar@iies.ac.ir
2- Economocs Faculty Allameh Tabatabaei University
3- Economics Facuity - Shahid Beheshti University
Abstract:   (8282 Views)

Expectation has an important role in oil price fluctuation and it seems which one of the important factors is for changing supply behaviour however oil price changes. Identification of mentioned expectation could help us for partly and continuously control the oil market situation.one of the important factor that could have effects on future oil price expectation is volume of current reserve oil and specifically OPEC members reserves. For OPEC members not only high reserve oil is prestige but also give them chance for having more OPEC production share however after applying market sharing system based on production for OPEC members in early 1980s,volume of reserve oil considered as a main benchmark and after that started increase reserve oil competition among OPEC members. In this paper tried study transition s of Iran’s oil reserves and its effectiveness on the oil producer’s countries’ information and also its accuracy. According to some statement reserve oil extra announcement could create chaos in oil market. Based on this study there is no any relation between increasing of oil reserves and oil production changes in Iran as one of the OPEC member's country and it seems extra reserve oil announcement more than reality is a hidden competition among members for getting more credit.

Keywords: OPEC, Reserve Oil Volume, Oil Price, Production Policy.
Full-Text [PDF 2683 kb]   (3211 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Applicable | Subject: انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
Received: 2016/07/11 | Accepted: 2017/04/12 | Published: 2017/05/17
References
1. ♣ Abdoli G, Majed V. (2012), Analyzing OPEC Members Behavior: A Cooperation Game Approach, Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 2012; 2 (7) :27-50
2.  Adelman، M.A. and Lynch M.C. (1997)، Fixed view of resource limit creates undue pessimism, Oil & Gas Journal, v. 95, no. 14, p. 56-60.
3.  Baghery Ali (2011), OPEC's Role in the Diversified Future Energy Market, Iranian journal of Economic Research, Vol. 16, No. 46, Spring 2011, pp. 1-18
4.  Bentley, R.W., Mannan S.A., and Wheeler S.J. (2007), Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves), Energy Policy, 35, no 12:6364–82.
5.  Boyce John R. (2009), what goes up Must Come Down? An Economic Analysis of Peak Oil, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
6.  BP, BP statistical yearbook, 2015.
7. ♣ Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère (1998), The End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American, march 1998, pp 78-83. [DOI:10.1038/scientificamerican0398-78]
8.  David L. Greene, Janet L. Hopson, Jia Li (2005), Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective, University of Tennessee, 27 December 2005.
9.  Hamilton, J. D. (1994) , Time Series Analysis, Princeton University.
10.  Krolzig, H.-M. (1997), Markov Switching Vector Autoregressions Modelling Statistical Inference and Application to Business Cycle Analysis, Berlin: Springer.
11. ♣ Linden, Henry R. (1998), Flaws seen in resource models behind crisis forecasts for oil supply price, Oil and Gas Journal, v. 96, n. 52 (December 28, 1998), p. 33-37.
12.  Lynch, M. C. (2003), Petroleum resources pessimism debunked in Hubbert model and Hubbert modelers' assessment, Oil Gas J., 101(27), 38–47.
13. ♣ Mohr and Evans (2008), Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert's Curve via Theoretical Modeling, Natural Resources Research, 17(1):1-11, March 2008. [DOI:10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8]
15. ♣ Okullo Samuel J., Reynes Frederic (2011), Can Reserve Additions in Mature Crude Oil Provinces Attenuate Peak Oil?, Energy Journal, Volume 36, Issue 9, September 2011, Pages 5755–5764. [DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.051]
16. ♣ R.J. Brecha (20012), Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil, Energy Policy, December 2012, 51:586–597 · [DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.016]
18.  R.W. Bentley (2002), Global oil & gas depletion, Energy Policy, 30,189-205.
19.  Salameh Mamdouh G. (2004), How realistic are OPEC's proven oil reserves?, Petroleum Review, August 2004, P. 26-29
20.  Samuel J.Okullo, Frederic Reynes (2015), Modeling Peak oil and geological Constraints on oil production, Resource and ENERGY Economics.
21.  Sauré P. (2010), Over-reporting Oil Reserves, Swiss National Bank working paper.
22.  The Economics of Peak oil, university of North Carolina, July 2011.
Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA
Send email to the article author

Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2024 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Journal of Economic Modeling Research

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb