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Explaining the future scenarios of Iran's affected by the Zangzor Corridor
Hossein Amraei1 , Hossein Rabiee *2 , Esmaeil Dehghan3 , Zakeyeh Aftabi4
1- kharazmi university, hosseinamraei4@gmail.com.
2- kharazmi university, hosseinrabiei@hotmail.com , hosseinrabiei@hotmail.com
3- kharazmi university, esmaeildehghaniran@gmail.com
4- Kharazmi university, aftabi_z@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (526 Views)
Qarabagh region and consequently Zangzor Corridor is of special importance for Iran due to its geopolitical and geoeconomic capabilities. This practical article is devoted to the explanation of the future scenarios for Iran caused by the Zangzor Corridor. The methodology governing the research is descriptive and analytical. The required data has been collected by library and field methods and analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the research showed six variables: Israel's presence in the Karabakh region, the location of the Karabakh region in the orbit of the US and the West, Iran's gas export, especially to Turkey, Iran's territorial integrity (especially the Turkic provinces), Iran's transit role in international transportation, and Iran's geopolitical position. They were chosen as the key influencing variables of Zangzor Corridor on Iran. In this regard; The possible situations related to six scenarios with strong compatibility showed: the situations that describe the scenarios facing Iran as critical due to the impact of the Zangzor Corridor, include the most possible possible situations. On this basis, the scenario of geopolitical collapse was formulated and it was concluded that the future of Iran's security in the Caucasus depends on its ability to create an effective strategy for managing challenges and exploiting opportunities. Only by strengthening regional cooperation and adopting prudent policies, Iran can take steps to protect its national interests and ensure stable security in this region
Keywords: scenario building, Dalan Zangzor, Critical situation.
     
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Political geography
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Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons — Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)