Mr Mohammad Safaei, Dr Hani Rezayan, Dr Parviz Zeaiean Firouzabadi, Dr Ali Asghar Torahi,
Volume 22, Issue 65 (6-2022)
Abstract
Examining the effects of climate change on the oak spatial distribution, as the main species of Zagros forests and its ecological and economic values is of significant importance. Here, we used species distribution models for simulating current climatic suitability of oak and its potential changes in 2050 and 2070. For this purpose, five regression-based and machine learning approaches, four climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation and two optimistic (RCP 2.6) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) greenhouse-gas scenarios were used. The results of measuring the accuracy of models by AUC indicated the good performance of all algorithms and Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.95) among other methods. The results showed that in both time periods and under both scenarios, changes will occur in oak spatial distribution and the most severe one would be a 42.9 percent loss in the oak climatic suitability in 2070 under pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5).
Maryam Afzali, Javad Khoshhal Dastjerdi, Aziz Torahi,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
Dates are one of the most important agricultural products exported from Iran. This plant is sensitive to environmental conditions and is not able to live and reproduce in all hot and dry areas in terms of quantity and quality. Dates have different varieties; each of them has the potential to adapt to a region of arid regions and can have the most production and economic yield in its proper place. Global warming in the last century has led planners to design pre-awareness programs and algorithms due to future climatic conditions in order to choose long-lived durable plants that can survive in future environmental conditions and have good economic yield. One of the best is the Maximum Entropy model. The aim of the present study is to identify the growth potentials of dates palm verities using CCSM4 model and scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, 0.6 and 8.5. The phonological data of cultivars were harvested by field method in 2016 and 2017. According to the model, The results showed that the dates of Astamaran and Berhi dates are different in terms of the length of phonological growth and thermal needs until the fruit ripened, and the places prone to their growth during the 2050 and 2070 periods were not the same based on the model. In addition, to bioclimatic variables for the long-term use of long-lived perennial crops, the location data required for cultivation should be used to introduce different cultivars to the environment.
