Arash Malekian, Mahro Dehbozorgi, Amir Hoshang Ehsani,
Volume 15, Issue 36 (6-2015)
Abstract
Drought is one of the most destructive natural disasters in human societies that cause irreparable impacts on agriculture, environment, society and economics. So, awareness of occurrence of droughts can be effective in reducing losses. In this study, in order to modeling and forecasting drought severity in a 37 year time period (1971-2007) in 21 meteorological stations, located in the cold semi-arid region of north-west Iran, artificial neural networks was used. The input data was annual rainfall data and annual drought precipitation index for all stations that 80% of the data (1971-2000) used for training the network and other 20% (2001-2007) used for testing it and in the next step drought severity predicted for the years 2008 to 2012 by the trained algorithm without using actual and existed data in this period. The appropriate structure for the network, based on Multi Layer Perceptron with three hidden layer, Back Propagation algorithm, Sigmoid transfer function and 10 neurons in middle layer. The results show that the artificial neural networks are well able to predict the non-linear relationship between rainfall and drought as it can simulate drought precipitation index values largely consistent with the real values with more than 97% regression and less than 5% error. So, drought can be predicted by this method in future and also it is useful in water resources management, drought management and climate change.
Masoud Malekian Dolat Abadi, Gholamhosein Heidari, Farhad Hamzeh,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract
The contemporary global landscape is characterized by heightened geopolitical competition, in which energy resources have evolved from being mere support for nations to becoming pivotal elements in the contest for power. This context has transformed corridors into significant arenas for competition, as each country endeavors to establish its position within the intricate network created by these emerging corridors. In this regard, the prevailing global geopolitical trend has intensified the competition over maritime chokepoints and secured access to cross-border markets.This research serves as a theoretical foundation, employing a descriptive-analytical methodology that incorporates a comparative approach, utilizing library and internet resources for data collection. Within the chronopolitical framework of Iran-Iraq relations, each actor strives to delineate its role in international corridors while pursuing various objectives. For instance, Iraq is actively engaged in the "FAW Corridor" initiative, whereas Iran seeks to expand economic cooperation and secure a place in the burgeoning alliances of the East. While it is challenging to make definitive predictions regarding the future of relations between the two countries from a chronopolitical perspective, emerging signs suggest a trend toward diminished cooperation and increased competition, influenced by a multitude of variables. A key indicator of this potential competition is the rivalry over transit routes (corridors).
