Showing 143 results for تحلیل
Mr Mahmood Hosseinzadeh Kermani, Dr Bohlul Alijani, Dr Zahra Bigom Hejazizadeh, Dr Mohammad Saligheh,
Volume 22, Issue 67 (12-2022)
Abstract
The main aim of this paper is to determine the capable areas for cultivating pistachio through considering of Geo statistical Analysis the major effective factors. The necessary climatic daily data of weather stations For the 300 synoptic stations, the station was set up by 2016. The topographic data include relief, slope, aspect, and TIN layers extracts from 1:250000 topographic maps of the region. The maps of land use and vegetation land cover were prepared from the 1:250000 maps of national soil and water Research Institute. The spatial analysis facilities of GIS were utilized for numerical calculation and the spatial geodatabase of the region was established. Then spatial and description data was entered into the data bank. Finally by overlaying analysis in ArcGIS, cultivated area was classified according to its capabilities. The results showed that 707273/88 KM2 Of the area (43%), Not suitable for spreading pistachio cultivation (Including altitudes and urban use and steep slopes, seaside and riverside streams, shoals, saline and swampy lands) and 585130/39 KM2 (35/57%) From the country of Iran Area Including plain areas and agricultural use) was recognized as suitable for the expansion of pistachio cultivation. These areas are located in the east and south east, center and northeastern Iran.
Mehdi Salemi, , , , ,
Volume 22, Issue 67 (12-2022)
Abstract
The most important part to be considered is the determination of the carrying capacity of the protected areas, since these areas are able to accommodate a large number of tourists, so if these areas are not planned more accurately, the number of tourists will exceed the cc limit of the area. Resulting in instability and degradation of these areas, and therefore knowledge of the status of the area's cc will greatly help to control the damage. The aim of this study was determine potential, and social-cultural cc with the purpose of the establishment in ecotourism development. Therefore, in order to the determination of the potential of this area, calculation of the social-cultural cc after the identification of the social - cultural pressures using model PSR the social- cultural pressures regarding the calculation of the correction by applying the percentage corrections of the pressures and the relative importance using the techniques ANP and of each of them after the grading layer using the techniques WLC and builder model at Arc GIS10.5 combined. Social - cultural cc in the direction of the development of ecotourism determined. The results 50% of the content that the level region has high cc, 33% of the surface area has an cc and 17 percent of the level region has low cc. Findings of the research show that there is a low range of cc in the central part of the region; finally, based on the findings, suggestions have been made to increase the regional distribution cc.
Ali Khedmatzadeh, Bakhtaran Feizizadeh,
Volume 22, Issue 67 (12-2022)
Abstract
Quality of life is one of the important issues that was first brought to the attention of scholars by the extensive development of technology and industrialization process in the Western countries, and it is increasingly being studied in this field, and this is important due to the increasing increase in quality of life studies in public policy monitoring. Quality of life can be used as a powerful tool for monitoring community development planning. The existence of spatial and spatial inequalities in the city has caused many problems, including the weakness of resources, inappropriate housing, the problems and damage caused by social inequalities, and undermined the quality of life. In this research, that of terms methodological, descriptive-analytic and in terms of purpose, it is functional used the statistics blocks of Urmia, in the census of 1395, and remote sensing data in combination with GIS have been to understand the quality of life in the 5 regions of Urmia. The criteria defined in this research are in 4 sections: social (including 9 sub-criteria), access to public services (5 sub-criteria), physical (4 sub-criteria), natural (4 sub-criteria), which are based on decision analysis Multi-criteria and integration of layers in the GIS environment. Weights obtained for social dimensions, access to public, natural and physical services derived from network analysis model are respectively 0.506, 0.323, 0.116 and 0.055. The results show that as far as the southwest is moving along the northeastern part of the city, blocks that have a better quality of life are rising. In the urban regions of the region 2, quality of life is more favorable than other urban regions. The results of such studies can help urban planners to better understand and prioritize urban issues as a dynamic environment.
Abolfazl Moarefi, Arash Sadri, Hadi Gholami Norabad, Behzad Saeidi,
Volume 22, Issue 67 (12-2022)
Abstract
As a novel idea for discussion on the role of industrial development on regional development, the term “cluster” became noteworthy since 90’s in order to increase competitiveness. Territorial development researchers believe that formation of regional industrial clusters improves competitiveness and plays a role in promoting competitive advantages and regional development. Hence, because of the possibility of realization of competitive advantage, Tourism clusters became a focal point for research and policy making. Against this background, the purpose of this research is to analyze and review the role of industrial clusters on development of regional competitiveness and assumes that the higher number of relations in an industrial cluster leads to higher level of regional competitiveness. The research applies descriptive-analytical research method and utilizes questionnaire to collect data. The data was studied by SPSS and Lisrel software packs after approval of validity and reliability of data. Findings corroborate the relation between higher number of relations in industrial clusters with higher level of regional competitiveness and also identifies the contributing factors to development and stimulation of regional development which are ranked by the order of their effect as follows: 1. Social relations, 2. Geographic and location relations, 3. Economic relations, and 4. Institutional relations.
Mrs Zahra Ebadi Nehari, Dr Mahdi Erfanian, Mrs Sima Kazempour Choursi,
Volume 23, Issue 68 (3-2023)
Abstract
Drought is a complex phenomenon caused by the breaking of water balance and it has always an impact on agricultural, ecological and socio-economic spheres. Although the drought indices deriving from remote sensing data have been used to monitor meteorological or agricultural drought, there are no indices that can suitably reflect the comprehensive information of drought from meteorological to agricultural aspects. In this study, the synthesized drought index (SDI) as a synthesized index from the vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI) and precipitation condition index (PCI) were used for comprehensive drought monitoring in the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB) based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). For this purpose, MOD13A3, MOD11A2 and TRMM 3B43 data series were downloaded y for the period of 2001–2012. After initial processing, drought indicators were calculated using LST NDVI and TRMM data, and monthly drought severity maps were prepared. In order to validate SDI index, the Correlation relationship between SDI and SPI indices was obtained in the 3 month period during the growing season. As well as, SDI correlation relationships were investigated with wheat and barley crop yields. The results indicate that drought occurred in 2008 and 2001 in the ULB. The results of validation show that there is a correlation of 80% between the two SDI and SPI indicators. Also, the results of this study showed that the SDI index, as a comprehensive index of drought monitoring, reflects the effects of drought on agriculture.
Ms Zienab Hosinpoor, Dr. Aliakbar Shamsipour, Dr. Mostafa Karimi, Dr. Faramarz Khoshakhlagh,
Volume 23, Issue 68 (3-2023)
Abstract
Heat waves are important phenomena in Iran, And its upsurge in recent years seems to have a high upside trend.This climate has a negative impact on agriculture, forest fire and forestry, water resources, energy use and human health.The purpose of the research is to explain the frequency, time distribution, continuity of thermal waves, and the identification of its occurrence in the southern foothills of central Alborz.Therefore, using the statistical methods and maximum daily temperature data of Tehran (Mehrabad), Qazvin and Semnan stations for the statistical period of 30 years (1966-2016), the mentioned characteristics were extracted.In the first step, the nonparametric method of Kendal was used to understand the variability and awareness of the monthly trend of maximum temperatures in the study period.In order to determine the severity, duration and frequency of heat wave events, the percentiles (95.98) and normalized temperature deviation (NTD) were used.The results of the study showed that the frequency of short-wave heat waves was higher.Most frequencies are related to 2-day waves, respectively, and Tehran (Mehrabad), Semnan and Qazvin stations are more frequent.The highest frequency of annual events was detected at stations in Tehran (11 waves in 2010), in Semnan (9 waves in 2015) and Qazvin (7 waves in 2015), respectively.The highest frequency of monthly heat wave events was recorded in June and September.The highest continuation (15 days) was obtained in March 2008 with the percentile method at Mehrabad station.In the normalized deviation method, the temperature was calculated as a warm wave (12 days) in 2008.The highest annual frequency of heat loss occurred in all three stations in 2015.The evolution of the process indicated an increase in the incidence of thermal waves in the cold period of the year But in other chapters, no meaningful changes were made.As it says, the decline in cold winter temperatures is on the southern slopes of Alborz.The results of the two methods showed that in the normalized deviation of the temperature, the number of thermal waves more than the percentile method was recorded, but in the percentile method, the thermal wave was more prominent in the cold period of the year.
Mohsen Abdehkolahchi, Abdehkolahchi Ghalehnoee, ,
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Abstract
Urban land use change is one of the key issues in urban planning that has been addressed by researchers in many different aspects, especially from the perspective of space. But the point that has been overlooked in various studies is that the analysis of different aspects of land use change is not limited to classical and spatial factors, and because of the various interest of land use change, many stakeholders aim to derive interest from this process in urban land developments. Accordingly, this paper aims to apply the communicative planning framework in identifying and explaining the factors affecting the distribution of land use change interests, because communicative planning as one of the major urban planning theories has focused on proper distribution of interests among stakeholders. In this study, after formulating the study results from theoretical studies, using a quantitative approach and exploratory factor analysis technique, the factors affecting the distribution of land use change interests have been identified and explained based on Approvals of the Commission Article 5 of the Ahvaz City (as one of the official references to land use change in the urban planning system). The results show that 9 factors with cumulative variance of 70/851% provide a proper explanation of user change interests distribution, among which "mediation legitimacy of planners and decision makers" has the most effect. Of course, the quality of these factors with 42.31% of the land quality shows the distribution of land use interests among the stakeholders was not very appropriate, which can lead to interest conflicts, especially between groups with economical-political interests and the public interest, and thus cause social instability in Ahvaz city.
ّfazel Amiri, Firooz Babaei, Tayebeh Tabatabaie,
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Abstract
Given the potential negative environmental impacts linked with wild landfills in the central part of the Kangan Region, there is a significant need to accelerate the development of controlled inter-municipal landfills. The study area with daily production of 92 tons of waste, due to lack of recycling equipment and incorrect locating landfill is faced with numerous environmental, health and social problems in open sites and unsafe. This study is aimed at identifying suitable sites for solid waste disposal by considering all essential factors and rating criteria by integrating Fuzzy-AHP and GIS with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in Kangan county. Standards for siting a landfill formulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were employed in this study. The criteria that are considered herein are land use, slope, elevation, distance to drainage, groundwater and dams, distance to faults, soil, geology, distance to the residence and road, industrial and infrastructure accessibility. These criteria were assigned fuzzy membership classes based on their importance in siting a landfill. The fuzzy members of all criteria were overlaid to generate the final landfill site suitability map which was classified into five: not suitable (53.3%), less suitable (39.1%), moderately suitable (5.4%), suitable (1.4%) and highly suitable (0.6%). The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was employed in the selection of the landfill site with reverence to multiple criteria and the fuzzy membership classes in accordance with the standards of the EPA. The results of this research in the management of the urban environment and also in the plans of the optimal disposal of urban solid of this area will be useful.
Mehrdad Mohamadpour Shatery, Hoshang Taghizadeh, Sahar Khoshfetrat,
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Abstract
Poverty is a social, economic, cultural and political reality that has long been one of the greatest human problems. The diversity of problems, needs and problems of the deprived and low-income groups of the society and the multiplicity of poverty indicators on the one hand, and on the other hand the lack of financial resources and credits to solve the poverty indicators, organizations in charge of poor affairs, including Imam Khomeini Relief Committee Has faced serious challenges in the optimal allocation of resources. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to classify the clients of Tabriz Relief Committee from the perspective of livelihood poverty indicators, ranking these clusters in terms of cost and finally allocating productive and optimal resources for each cluster. In this way, with the least resources, a wide range of the needy benefit from these resources. To do this, with cluster analysis of data extracted from the system, 700 clients of Tabriz Relief Committee have been clustered from the perspective of livelihood poverty indicators and K-mean method. The results of this study were a cluster structure consisting of 10 clusters, which according to the characteristics of the clusters, titles for the clusters were considered. Finally, in order to rank the clusters, a multi-characteristic SAW decision-making method has been used. The research findings show the difference between the effectiveness of allocation in clustering method compared to other traditional methods.
Shahla Qasemi, Reza Borna, Faredeh Asadian,
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Abstract
Abstract
In the history of humanity, human always has suffered all difficulties with effort to reach to comfort and well-being until the human provides a way to achieve the comfort. In the viewpoint of climate four elements have significant role in formation of human comfort and discomfort conditions that according to the climatic conditions in different areas, the type and effect of these elements on individuals are also different. The aim of this research is to determine the areas of climatic comfort. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and humidity data were derived from database of Esfazari for Khuzestan province during statistical period 1965 to 2014. In this process, at first discomfort climate has been defined using temperature, precipitation and humidity based on distribution probability conditional. This research is to determine the areas of climatic comfort in Khuzestan province using multivariate analysis (Cluster analysis and Discriminant analysis) and spatial autocorrelation pattern (Hot Spot index and Moran index) with emphasis on architecture. The results showed that the areas with climatic comfort are included in north and east parts of Khuzestan province. However, the areas of climatic comfort by spatial method have been limited somewhat. Results further indicated that the areas of climatic comfort have decreased significantly towards recent periods especially in cluster analysis and discriminant analysis that a trend of reduction has been remarkable in cluster analysis (from 23.60% in the first period to 17.60% in the fifth period) and discriminant analysis (from 26.97% in the first period to 14.98% in the fifth period).
Dr Arash Ghasemphour, Dr Azadeh Arbabi, Dr Naser Ebadati, Dr Fatemeh Adibi, Dr Maryam Rostam Pishe,
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Abstract
This research has been carried out with the aim of analyzing and explaining the spatial distribution of Mahshahr port during the years (1981-2021). The research method is descriptive-analytical and practical in terms of targeting. For data analysis, cross-tab, kappa coefficient, sectorial, Heldren and Markov chain models were used. In this regard, Envi 5.3, Terrset, Arc/Gis and Google Map software were used to analyze the obtained information. The geographical scope of this research is the city of Mahshahr according to the census of 2015. Kappa coefficient of Mahshahr port spatial changes map for 1981, 2001 and 2021 is equal to 0.88, 0.94 and 0.94 respectively. The results of this research show that during the years 2001 to 2021, about %75 of the growth of Mahshahr city is related to population increase and %25 is related to horizontal and physical growth. The spreading pattern of Mahshahr port is expanding in the form of clusters in the north, north-west, west and south-west directions. According to the forecast results for the time horizon of 2041, the growth of Mahshahr port will reach from 1657 hectares in 2021 to 2530 hectares in 2041. If there is no optimal management, the dispersal of Mahshahr port and its agricultural lands will undergo many changes in the not-so-distant future, and this will have adverse effects on the residents of this city due to the climatic condition of the city and global warming.
Hadi Nagibi, Adel Sherizadeh,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
Nowadays, tourism, as one of the key components, has a special role in developing societies and countries. Here, urban tourism - as a significant parts of the tourism industry - has a special place in improving the economic and cultural development of cities and has turned into one of the most important, exchange yielding, and income creating industries. Nevertheless, the development of this industry in cities faces some challenges and problems. This calls for a new and integrated planning to take advantage of opportunities and face the challenges ahead. Future studies can take very effective steps in planning for the development of urban tourism and mapping out the desired future of tourism, and by presenting proper solutions, it can stop the emergence of challenges and the realization of an undesirable future. This study was working towards in line with this purpose. In the present study, using Delphi technique, 36 factors were identified as the primary factors affecting the future of the development of urban tourism in Khoy. The structural analysis method was used with the help of MicMac software to extract key factors, where 12 factors were selected as key factors. Then, the probable situations were defined for each key factor. In the next step, to measure the effectiveness of the occurrence of the status of each of the factors on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other factors, a 33 × 33 matrix was designed and given to the experts. Finally, to compile probabilistic scenarios and to identify desirable scenarios, the data for this matrix were introduced into the scenario software. ScenarioWizard software reported 1406 poor scenarios, 4 strong scenarios and 13 credible scenarios by performing the needed analyses. Examining the credible scenarios showed a relative ruling of static, critical and undesirable situations over the desirable and ideal situations. Apart from the first scenario with desirable and progressive features, the rest of the scenarios do not show a desirable future in minds for the development of tourism in Khoy.
Sara Ghahri Lalaklou, Dr Rasool Darskhan, Dr Mahsa Faramarzi Asli, Dr Morteza Mirgholami, Dr Samad Sabbagh Dehkharghani,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
Urban design that the first was paying attention to the aesthetic dimension,now pays to the quality of the public territory in terms of physical social cultural and creating places for people using.the public territory is a temporary territory and everyone has access to and has the right to use it.tendency to have a territory and defend of it, is intrinsic.since now women like men are present in society but they do not have enough power to choose their territory so this research is trying to introduce the effective items to creating ideal territory.the data of this study is descriptive-analytical/survey.type of study is quantitative and qualitative. The study is field and library based.the statistical population includes women with different cultures ages behaviors in ealgoli park,women's shams park,valiasr park of Tabriz that the woman were randomly selected.the sample size is 384 and it based on the Cochran formula. At first at the descriptive level were investigated with subject statistics indicators and then at the inferential level used of exploratory factor analysis to determine the model.the results include 5 influential components.these components are landscape-functional-security-morphology-psychological.
Mister Hossien Tahmasebimogaddam, Docter Isa Piri, Miss Zahra Rasolzadeh, Miss Mahnaz Vaezlivari,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
The endogenous growth pattern reflects the importance of the quality of human capital and even the social system and governance in which culture is considered as the source of ideas for economic sectors. A review of the policies and priorities for the development of the new economy highlights the importance of creative city indicators in managing the challenges and cultural and economic diversity of current cities. The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical and it is applied in terms of purpose. . The method of data collection is mainly library and documentary by means of catch-up, housing statistical blocks of 2016 and detailed plan map of 2015. Combined methods of the factor analysis and spatial statistics in GIS are used for analysis. Most of Zanjan's neighborhoods lacked creative class attraction indices and spatial distribution of Zanjan's central and northern creative city indices was relatively favorable. Zanjan's neighborhood development policies have less attention to the interests and priorities of the creative class, and urban spaces other than the central and northern neighborhoods are not conducive to social interaction and creativity of residents, and urban residents, especially urban east and west, have become passive recipients of urban services and facilities.
Dr Hoomayoon Molaei, Dr Emamgholi Babadi,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
Abstract
Iran is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world and its cities have suffered a lot due to this natural phenomenon. The purpose of this study was the spatial analysis of earthquake crisis management. The research method has been applied-developmental. The research area of Khuzestan province and the statistical population included elites in the field of urban planning in Khuzestan province who were selected by targeted sampling method. There have also been two statistical tests. The results of statistical analysis showed that from the perspective of statistical individuals, proper crisis management (organizational structure, proper distribution of emergency services, manpower, equipment and information system) has a positive and significant effect on reducing mortality and financial vulnerability. Also, the results of Hot spot analysis showed that hot and earthquake-prone hotspots in Khuzestan province were mostly located in Behbahan, Masjed Soleiman and Andimeshk counties
Khadigeh Khatiri, Iran Ghazi, Nemat Hasani,
Volume 23, Issue 71 (12-2023)
Abstract
Identifying the level and trend of social capital among the people of a society can help to identify the social and cultural changes of that. The purpose of this study is to explain the development of social capital in urban water crisis management using factor analysis. This research is of applied-developmental type and descriptive-survey study method. The questionnaire is used to collect information and SPSS software and exploratory analysis statistical test is used to analyze the data. The statistical population includes the countrychr('39')s crisis and water supply managers (15 people chosen by targeted sampling); Also, all residents of Karaj during 1396 - 1395, which was used as a statistical sample using the Cochranchr('39')s table for 350 people, of which 44.3% were women and 55.7% were men. The results of statistical analysis showed that in people (sampled) of statistical population’s opinion the level of social capital was lower than what desired. Also, the factors involved in the development of social capital for the water shortage crisis were counted and measured in the form of 24 variables. And finally 5 items eliminated to be effective ones to development of social capital in crisis management of urban water which are ( in order of preferences ) social trust, motivating policies, change in attitude atmosphere, infrastructures of interactions and values in the society, mutual reconciliation between people and government
Mrs Maryam Sanaei, Dr Gholamreza Barati, Dr Alireza Shakiba,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract
Climate change, including spatial changes in rainfall following the increase in greenhouse gases, is a challenge that affects various aspects of life in human societies today. In this study, the long-term spatial changes of the rainy season from September to May were studied using the statistics of "local Moran" and "Hot spots of Getis Ord-J" during 5 5-year periods from 1991 to 2015. The application of local Moran statistics showed that areas with long rainfall periods are in good agreement with the countrychr('39')s rainfall pattern. This adaptation is accompanied by a negative spatial correlation in lands with short rainfall periods. The pattern obtained from the hot spot statistics also showed itself to be more consistent and corresponded to two very low rainfall regimes in the southeast and center, while according to local Moran statistics, this pattern was more scattered and parts of it had a low southern precipitation regime. . In addition, the results of Alexandersonchr('39')s statistics to identify mutations in the long-term series of the rainy season showed that the time series of 13 stations out of 108 stations studied experienced a sudden jump that these mutations are more in the southern stations in the country and in later years. It has occurred since 2000 AD.
Hadi Zerafati, Yousef Ghavidel, Manuchehr Farajzadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract
In this study, for statistical studies to determine days whit temperature above 50°c, the reanalyzed data of the nineteenth, twentieth and twenty-first centuries for the West Asia region (12 to 42.5 degrees north latitude and 36 to 63.5 degrees east longitude) have been used. Also, for synoptic analysis of extreme temperatures, HGT, AIR, UWND, VWND and SLP data were used. To conduct this research, first, extreme temperature data above 50° during the last 185 years were extracted for the study area in the hot season (June, July, August and September). After identifying days whit above 50° c, HGT data at the level of 500 hp were extracted and WARD clustering was applied. Finally, after identifying the clusters, the days whit the highest temperature that occurred in each cluster were selected for synoptic analysis. It can be said that all altitude patterns of geopotential meters (HGT) at the level of 500 hp show that the main cause of occurrence and distribution of temperatures above 50°c in West Asia are high-altitude (high-pressure) subtropical West Asia, which due to the location of its high-pressure core on the Zagros and sometimes the Arabian Peninsula, it has been referred to as the Zagros or Saudi high-pressure in terms of interest and taste. What is certain, however, is the high-pressure independent identity of the subtropical Azores, which has been mentioned in numerous articles and is known to be the main cause of the heat in the West Asian region, especially Iran.
Dr Behrouz Sobhani, Dr Mehdi Aalijahan,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract
Today, fine dust and dust storms have become one of the important issues and problems of Iran and other regions of the world. This study is conducted to identify synoptic patterns of the dust storms in Ardabil Province (Iran) and monitor the origin and pathway of its places. The studied period is 34 years (1979-2013). The data used in this work are from synoptic stations of Ardabil province and the NASA’s upper atmosphere database. To achieve the goals of the study, the Environment to Circulation, Hierarchical Clustering Methods, and HYSPLIT model were used. According to the results, three patterns of geopotential height at 500 hPa levels were identified. Pattern No. 1 and 2 are almost similar to each other and represent the occurrence of a deep trough that formed from Central Europe and extended to the middle of the Red Sea. Based on these patterns, the study area is located in the East of this trough. The third pattern represents the occurrence of cut-of-low pressure blocking over the Black Sea and adjacent areas and placement of Ardabil province in the East trough of the formed blocking. The origin of dust in patterns 1 and 2 is the Eastern regions of Iraq and West of Iran while in pattern 3 is at 500 hPa level of the central areas of Iraq and at pressure levels of 850 and 1000 hPa of the central regions of Syria.
Keywords: Dust storm, Pattern extraction, synoptic analyses, HYSPLIT model, Ardabil province
Mrs Somayeh Naderi, Prof. Bohloul Alijani, Prof. Zahra Hedjazizadeh, Dr. Hasan Heidari, Dr. Karim Abbaspour,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract
Evidence suggests that climate change will create uncertain regional agricultural production stability in the coming decades. This research investigated the impact of climate change on hydrology and sugar beet yield as one of the main crops in the Urmia lake basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To address this, a baseline SWAT model was setup for 1986-2014. Afterward, the output was calibrated (1989-2004) and validated (2005-2014) in the SWAT-CUP software using the SUFI2 algorithm to simulate streamflow of 23 gauging stations and crop yield. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.43 and 0.53 for calibration and validation periods, sequentially. The Percent Bias was 45% and 16% for calibration and validation periods, respectively. As well as the agreement indices of 0.71 and the little Percent Bias (-6% to 10%) for crop production, verified the model's efficiency. The next step was downscaling and bias-correction of the precipitation and temperature data received from 3 climate models, namely GFDL, HadGEM2, and IPSL under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using CCT program. Then, the downscaled data were fed to SWAT, and Finally, hydrological fluxes and sugar beet yield were estimated for 2021-2050. Despite a dispersion of precipitation changes ranging from -12% to +35% in most scenarios, results highlight the pivotal role that the warmer temperature (+2.7°C) increases evaporation, resulting in sharpened pressure on water resources and runoff, especially, at the beginning of crop growth season. Finally, the negative impacts on crop productivity (-45%) is not unexpected. This means that sugar beet may suffer from climate change impacts, and the production of this plant will change over the next period in this region.
Keywords: Climate Change, Sugar Beet, Urmia Lake Basin, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT.