Showing 681 results for Type of Study: Research
Javad Bazrafshan, Mehrshad Toulabi Nejad, Najmeh Hamli,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
This study explored the factors and drivers of livelihood pattern change in rural households through sustainable livelihoods Approach. The study was considered applicable and used a descriptive-analytic method. To collect the data, questionnaire and interview instruments were utilized. The statistical population was Minan rural households in Sarbaz border province (N=4544). Using Cochran’s sampling technique, 354 households were selected as the participants of the study. One sample t-test, chi-square, and logistic model were used for data analysis. Findings revealed that out of 354 respondents, 72.88 % believed their livelihood pattern had changed and 27.12% supposed no change. 15 out of 45 variables under study were considerably effective and had significant relationships with livelihood variable. Economical (0.400), personal (0.360), and geographical isolation (0.312) factors played major roles in this regard. Moreover, it indicated that out of 354 respondents, 39.8% assumed that they had chosen fuel smuggling, 25.4 % goods trading, and 22.9 % service works as a reaction to this livelihood change for the living. Thus, it can be argued that integrated rural livelihood and accessible proper foundations for subsistence outside the farms (such as rural industries) can diversify living and prevent both livelihood change and use of illicit and hazardous activities, for instance, fuel and goods smuggling.
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Zahra Sadat Hoseini, Shahriar Khaledi, Abdolmajid Naderi Bani,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
Paleo-climate reconstructions based on multi-proxy such as sedimentology is current in climatology investigation. In this way, National Institute of Oceanography and Atmospheric Science cored 960cm from Arzhan wetland SW of Iran than we have investigated of sedimentology. Primarily the core was measured on magnetic sensibility per 1cm and secondly was subsampled according to magnetic sensibility and were analyzed include TOC, CaCO3, and Grading laser and etc. Finally four samples of pace of plant were selected and have been dated in carbon 14 dating laboratory of Poznan, Poland, and calibrated trough of core based on Calib rev. 7.1. Dating have determined that core had covered 15000 Cal. BP. According to this investigation, we obtained 5 period of climate conditions during Pleistocene to Holocene in this area. 15000-13000 Cal. BP. Late Pleistocene climate conditions were colder and wetter period that indicate end of the Ace age. 13000-11000 Cal. BP. Climate begin to warmer and dryer. 11000-9000Cal.BP. because of this period shows many fluctuations in all proxies we named this period to the period of transfer from ace age to interglacial period. 9000-7000Cal. BP there have been warm and cold conditions compare to late Holocene. 7000- Present indeed in this period radiantly modern pattern of atmospheric circulation has been performed due to all of proxies in late Holocene begin to fixed on the same pattern. So probably atmospheric circulation from meddle Holocene begin to get harmonic to present. Any way for determinate of paleo-climate in this area we need to use of multi proxy investigation in area.
Meysam Toulabi Nejad, Dr Zahra Hejazizadeh, Mrs Atefeh Bosak, Mrs Nasrin Bazmi,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the middle levels of Atmosphere and precipitation changes in the West of country. To do this, first monthly rainfall data of 17 synoptic stations of the West Country in period of 30 years from 1984 to 2014 of country were collected from Meteorological Organization. As well as North Atlantic Oscillation data and anomalies geopotential height data, sea level pressure and precipitation were received from NOAA. To clarify the relationship between the NAO index phase with precipitation of west of Iran used Pearson correlation coefficient was at least 95%, (P_value = 0.05). Finally, using synoptic maps, spatial relationships among data, were analyzed. The results indicate that between North Atlantic Oscillation changes with middle level height anomalies of the Atmosphere and the amount of precipitation in West of Iran in January, March, April and November there is communication and concurrency. The results showed that , at a time of sovereignty positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation , an average of height atmospheric middle level in mid - western Iran 17 meters long - term and less than the average rainfall per month 23.5 mm increased and wetly sovereign. But when phase of governance is negative, high atmospheric middle level anomaly to an average of 20 meters more than normal. As a result, the drought will prevail in the west and precipitation in the region each month will face a reduction of 30 mm. In general, we can say that droughts more severe than wet coincide with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive phase.
Hasan Zolfaghari, Jafar Masoompourv Samakosh, Shabnam Chahvari,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is predicting climate changes and investigating the effect of probable climate change on the growing degree-days in the northwest of Iran. For this purpose the climatic data of seven synoptic stations during a 25 years period (1985-2009) was collected including Oroomieh, Tabriz, Zanjan, Sanandaj, Ghazvin, Kermanshah, and Hamedan were used as the base period and thus temperature variations periods (2030-2011 and 2065-2046) through HadCM3 model was simulated. For the little power of temporal and spatial distinction of this model, its outputs were downscaled using LARS-WG software and presented under Emission Scenarios including A1B (moderate scenario), A2 (maximum or pessimistic scenario), and B1 (minimum or optimistic scenario). Calibration, verification and Performance Model with the rate of the adaption of observed data and the simulated measures through statistics , RMSE and MAE were analyzed. Finally, using the simulated temperature growing degree-day was calculated and compared under 4 Base temperature including 0°,5°,10°, and 15° centigrade in the basic span (1985-2009) and future span (2011-2030 and 2046-2065). The results of simulation show that temperature change in north-west areas under all three A1B, A2, and B1 scenario are increasing in the future, but the differences among these three scenarios in each period is inconsiderable. In total the most temperature increasing was detected as 0/7 centigrade in A2 scenario for 2011-2030 period and 2/3 centigrade under A1B scenario for 2046-2065 period. Generally with the temperature increasing, the amounts of growing degree-day without exception increases in review periods and under the four Base temperature. Under studied scenarios, the Bases temperature of 0° centigrade had the most and 15° centigrade had the least impressibility from climate changes, so that the most increasing in calculated degree-day measures under 0° and 15° centigrade bases in the first period to the basic scenario (1985-2009) respectively was simulated as 207/4 and 120/6 degree-day under A2 scenario and for the second period to the 752/5 and 463/5 degree-day under A1B scenario.
Nasser Bayat, Seyed Ali Badri,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
This research is conducted on tourist segmentation in the touristy catchment area of Kolan river in Malayer Township. The statistical population is tourists who travel to the area for recreation, tourism and leisure. The research tool is a self-administrated questionnaire. By the method of Simple random sampling we collected a total of 200 questionnaires of tourists in the study area. Descriptive statistics and exploratory factor analysis and cluster analysis was used to analyze the research data. Based on the results of factor analysis were identified even major factor in tourists' motivations at the regional level, including: Rurality, sense of place and place belonging, rest and relaxation, nature-based tourist activities, group outdoor recreational activities, purchase the rural production, excitement and novelty, spirituality and solitude. According to this motivational factors final result of tourism segmentation shows that tourism demand in the market consisted 7 difference segments. cluster 1 with a diverse motivation of 12%, cluster 2 with togetherness motivation 17%, third cluster as a younger age group with adventure motivation 18.5%, cluster 4 with rurality motivation 15%, fifth cluster whit shopping motivation 10%, sixth cluster with sense of place and desire for comfort and rest 19.5%, and seventh cluster with a particular tendency to sense of place 7.5% of the sample population as a whole. The results could be utilize in order to optimize the use of available resources in the area by managers and local authorities, as well as owners of tourism businesses, compatible with the actual needs of various sectors in rural tourism market.
Jamileh Tavakolinia, Mostafa Haraeeni,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
Tourism quality is important factor so that influence in return of tourists. Hence, it needed to be developed tourism quality due to stimulate domestic and foreign investment, increase business, and improve economic and social conditions. This study has an applied perspective relevant to type, and has an analytical approach pertaining to descriptive method. Using a questionnaire and taking the reliability of the data into account, the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (0.834) and content validity, the data and required information were collected; and analyzing the number of 354 forms referring to the Darband restaurants were performed, with respect to documentary research and fieldwork in the sample tests. Based on facts collected due to satisfy consumptions; we found some gaps including, the widest gap of QoSs is relevant to tangibles with average distance -0.33, and narrowest gap of QoSs is pertaining to responsiveness with average distance 0.34. In next step, using Kano model we categories’ QoSs, and the results, based on customers’ respond, shown that 6 features categorized as “attractive,” 5 features categorized as “one-dimensional,” 6 features categorized as “necessary,” and 2 features as rest of 19 characteristics categorized as “unconcerned.” Eventually, according to the findings performed an inspection due find out about a relation over the Spearman correlation, and education, and income.
Abed Golkarami, , Afshin Motaghi, Hossien Rabiee,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
Knowing Country and understanding the capacity of its perimeter and international environment are essential components of the economy that the foreign policy of any country should be on the basis of territorial and social. The country relies on its geopolitical foundations that they are influenced by its geographical location can affect codification foreign policy in the international economy. Hence, this paper with an analytical -descriptive method to survey the geopolitical and geographical foundations of Islamic Republic of Iran's economy. This paper show that Economy of Islamic Republic Iran away with its Geopolitical foundations and to achieve an effective economic on the closed surrounding and international environment, review in Geopolitical foundations of foreign policy that is mentioned in the form of five components are necessary and is inevitable. Hence, Islamic Republic of Iran to pursue these foundations in foreign policy strategy, not only effects will be in terms of political and cultural on international environment but also in terms geo-economic impact on international political economy.
Hamdollah Sojasi Qidari, Hamide Mahmoodi, Hoori Havvaei,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
Higher quality of services provided in the rural areas requires feedback, consulting with villagers, and their active participation in rural development process. Water services are one of the most basic services provided in rural areas. Accordingly, the present study seeks to evaluate the satisfaction level of rural residents with the quality of services provided by Rural Water and Wastewater Company. This study was conducted in a descriptive-analytical method, and the population was comprised of 132 households randomly selected from rural residents living in rural areas of Central District of Neyshabur County with an acceptable reliability score. Investigating the relationship between the five dimensions of the study and the individual characteristics indicates that there is a significant relationship between age, gender and education level and satisfaction with quality of the services in sample villages. At the same time, assessing the satisfaction with the quality of water services in sample villages indicates that the quality of water services in sample villages is at a satisfactory level. The analytical results of the confirmatory factor analysis of the research indicators showed the highest percentage of variance of the research dimensions belonged to 'empathy', with 30.91% and the least value of variance belongs to ‘tangible changes’ (21.28%). The spatial analysis of villagers' satisfaction with drinking water supply services in sample villages showed that the village of Sheikhlan with 103.10 Qi had the highest satisfaction level, and the village of Turani with 0.990 Qi had the least satisfaction with the quality of services..
Tayebeh Dehghani, Mohammad Saligheh, Bohloul Alijani,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
In order to detect climate change, a variety of climate indicators can be used which is often considered temperature and precipitation. In order to investigate the effect of climate change on the amount of precipitation in the north coast of the Persian Gulf, it simulated the precipitable water for 2017-2050 based on the RCP4.5 model of the Hadcm3 model. The NCEP / NCAR base-station data with an arc-value of 0.125 was used to analyze the past and present precipitable water patterns and to reveal the process of this time series. Time series analysis of precipitable water was performed using two SENS tilt estimators and Man-Kendall test. The results indicated that the annual time series of rain water was increasing in the region, every year, 0.05 mm, the precipitated water increased and it tended to become more homogeneous, this increase in the significance level of 0.95. The precipitation rate in the eastern part of the region was higher than other areas. Before 1989, several fluctuations were observed in the rainy season of precipitable water, but none was statistically significant at the confidence level of 95%, but since 1989, the trend has increased significantly at a confidence level of 0.95. This spatial behavior of precipitable water can actually have occurred in response to the increase in the overall temperature of the area and can be considered as a profile of climate change in the region.
Professor Kamal Omidvar, Miss Nesa Sepandar,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
In this study, the dust situation in 6 synoptic stations of Kermanshah province was investigated in the period 1987-1992. To study this phenomenon, dust days were extracted in 2009 with code (06) from the current air index. Then data from different bar levels were taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NCEP / NCAR) database and maps were plotted in the Grads software. Finally, through the processing of MODIS satellite imagery, with the application of the brightness temperature index, round detection and the dust was made and its territory expanded. The results of the study showed that at low ground level, when the European high-pressure system retreated to the north and west, Sudan's low pressure existed in the eastern Mediterranean, and the system moved southwest to the northeast, and when they entered, the disturbance zone is caused due to the lack of moisture in the dust, the main sources of dust in the province of Kermanshah include the deserts of northern Arabia, southern Iraq, and somewhat north of the sub-Saharan Africa.
Sayyed Mohammad Hosseini,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
Precipitation is a climatic elements that have temporal - spatial distribution. In this research database of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) with a resolution 0.5×0.5 degree for 50 year is used, that was constituted with dimensions of 12800*600. Temporal data are on the columns and pixels (spatial data) located on the rows. The results show an increasing trend in spring and fall but in summer and winter precipitation trend has been decreased. The most amount of precipitation is located in the northern parts of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, Southeast Asia, southern coast of the Caspian and Central Zagros Mountains. Most of Middle East (about %95) have not trend and only in some parts of Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Pakistan ,central Iran, and areas in lower-latitude have positive trend and some East and northwest parts of Iran and some parts of Middle East also have decreasing trend of precipitation. The highest percent of area of precipitation trend gradient is 0 to 0.5.
Sajad Ferdowsi, Najmeh Nazari Mazidi, Mehdi Modudi Arquhdi,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
This study was conducted to estimate the index of Remaining carrying capacity of host community to tourism development. The method of data analysis is descriptive-analytical. In order to collect the initial data, a field survey and a questionnaire were used. The study population is comprised of specialists related to the subject and residents of Shahroud (host community). The sample size for distribution of the host community questionnaire is 125 people (65 inhabitants, 41 tourism business owners, 19 officials). In this regard, 20 questionnaires have been considered for the survey of experts. Method of determining the carrying capacity of the host community in the study adapted of Battelle Environmental Evaluation System (BEES) that it is used for environmental impact assessment (EIA) and the limits of acceptable change (LAC). The results of data analysis showed that based on barometer of sustainability Alan Prescott, and according to the parameters obtained by (0.426), carrying capacity of the host community, by positioning the floor of 0.41 to 0.60 of the situation is balanced state. Therefore, it is understood that the host society has a balanced attitude towards tourism and is not opposed to its development. As a result, it is essential to use existing potentials in order to sustainable tourism development, necessary planning should be made by tourism managers to attract more tourists to this area.
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Dr Younes Khosravi, Mehdi Dostkamian, Allah Morad Taherian, Amin Shiri Karim Vand,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
Survey of advection of cold waves in Iran is the main aim of this study. In this regard, 45 synoptic stations were employed and studied. In order to investigate the thermal advection of cold waves, 1000, 850, 700 and 500 hp levels were reviewed and analyzed. Results indicated that cold waves in Iran most affected thermal advection caused by Tibet- Siberia, Siberias integrated Turkmenistan high-pressure, High pressure belt of Siberia - East Europe High pressure, Siberian high-pressure multi-core pattern and High-pressure belt of East of Caspian Sea integrated Black Sea High pressure. In the meantime, thermal advection of Siberian high pressure has been more impressive than other patterns. This system moved towards lower latitudes by anti-cyclone moving, So the cold weather of northern latitudes loss in lower latitudes North East of Iran, North West and Central parts of Iran. However, when Siberian high pressure combined with other patterns, its role in the advection of cold air have been considerable
Shamsollah Asgari, Amir Safari, ,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
One of the important and effective factors in the destruction of natural resources is the flood phenomenon, identification of this phenomenon and effective parameters in flood occurrence in natural resources and catchment areas is necessary. The purpose of this study was to determine the flooding of sub-basins in Jafarabad basin in Ilam province. In this research, the Jafarabad basin in Ilam Province is divided in to 12 sub-basins. For each sub-basin, 28 geometric, climatic, permeable and physiographic parameters such as area, environment, length and slope of main stream, length and slope of the basin, time of concentration, The coefficients of shape and variability of precipitation, vegetation cover, CN, discharge and ... have been calculated using GIS software. Factor analysis was used to determine the flood potential of the sub basins. The data of 28 sub-basin variables were analyzed by SPSS software and summarized in 5 main factors (shape, flow, slope, drainage and runoff). The results indicate that the factor of the form with a specific value of 11/30 is the most important factor in the flooding of the studied basin. Channel, slope, drainage and runoff factors with a specific value of 7.21,4.34,3.22 and 3.10 respectively Priority is in the next rank. Then, based on the factor scores of the study area, three large, medium and low flooding categories were mapped and a zoning map of the flood potential of the sub-basins was drawn in the GIS environment. Sub-basins (9,8,5,3) in the shape of the sub-basins (1,6,11) in the gradient factor, sub-basins (2, 7) in the drainage factor and in the runoff factor of the sub-basins (4,10,12 ) Have a lot of flood potential. In sub-basins, the similarity of flooding, erosion, vegetation, and human performance impacts is divided into 3 groups with high, medium and low flood potential. Sub-basins play a major role in the flooding of the basin, which affects the vast agricultural fields of the lower reaches.
Fatemeh Mohammadyary, Hamidreza Pourkhabbaz, Hossin Aghdar, Morteza Tavakoly,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
Land-use change is one of the most important challenges of land-use planning that lies with planners, decision-makers and policymakers and has a direct impact on many issues, such as economic growth and the quality of the environment. The present study examines the land use change trends in Behbahan city for 2014 and 2028 using LCM in the GIS environment. Analysis and visibility of user variations, carried out in two periods of Landsat satellite images of 2000 (ETM + sensor) and 2014 (OLI sensors), and land cover maps for each year. The transmission potential modeling was performed by using the multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network algorithm using six independent variables and the distribution of changes in user usage were calculated by Markov chain method. The results of the prediction showed that the most reduction in the changes is the degradation of the rangelands and the greatest increase in the area of agricultural use. According to the horizontal tabulation results of the 2028 map, it can be stated that from the total area of the area 28336.22 hectares of land were unchanged and 33223.78 hectares of land use change. Also Rangeland and forest degradation during this time period can be a danger to urban planners and natural resources.
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Dr Abazar Solgi, Dr Heidar Zarei, , ,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
Estimating and predicting precipitation and achieving its runoff play an important role to correct management and exploitation of basins, management of dams and reservoirs, minimizing the flood damages and droughts, and water resource management, so they are considered by hydrologists. The appropriate performance of intelligent models leads researchers to use them for predicting hydrological phenomena more and more. Therefore, in this study, the Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) models were used to model monthly precipitation of Nahavand City. In this study, precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity data were used in a 32-year period (from 1983 to 2014). The results showed that the same and good performance of both models (R2= 0.92), but according to different evaluation criteria, GEP model showed a little better performance (RMSE= 0.0478 and 0.0486), while the running GEP model is so easier than the SVM model. Totally, it can be said that GEP model had been suitable for modeling monthly precipitation of Varayeneh station in Nahavand City. Finally, the monthly precipitation was predicted the GEP which showed a decrease in precipitation in compared with previous months.
Hossein Asakereh, Robab Razmi,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
In the present study, the main aim was the spatial evaluation summer rainfall of northwest of Iran based on30 stations in northwest of Iran during 30 years of statistical period (1985-2014). An attempt, using geo-statistical modeling by ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) procedures, was also made. The results represented that the GWR model with higher S2, lower residuals and lower RMSE is an optimized geo-statistical model for rainfall modeling of this area. This model can explain spatio-temporal rainfall distribution in northwest of Iran in a diversified topographical and geographical background. This model revealed that two spatial factors including elevation and slope, have the most important role in the summer rainfall behavior.Therefore Elevations in the mountainous and eastern parts of Lake Urmia, Latitude in the northern regions and slopes in the east of the region, have the most role in the spatial variations of summer precipitation in northwestern Iran.
Hujjat Mirzazadeh, Taher Parizadi,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
Introduction and Objectives: Unbalanced distribution facilities and services on Economic, Social and between regions, need to the planning and balanced spatial development the spatial structure of the country is inevitable This study aimed to determine the level development of the provinces of Iran and rank them based on the level of development and different levels of development of the country From 1345 to the present to help make the planning system and national policy has been done.
Methods: This study is based on cognitive research and in terms of the goal of the evaluation research method - comparative. The population according to the latest political divisions of 31 provinces and indexes evaluated 33 indicators in four dimensions (Economic, infrastructure-physical, socio-cultural and health), respectively. For data analysis, factor analysis and cluster analysis techniques were used.
Findings: The results show, between the provinces in terms of development, there are differences and inequalities. So that in Tehran alone during the decades the highest level of development and Sistan and Baluchestan province are the lowest and most disadvantaged. Comparison provinces during different periods of development of the center over the periphery of inequality.
Conclusion: According to the results of research to reduce disparities between provinces The placing of the country due to the talent and potential of each region and prioritizing disadvantage and less developed provinces in the planning of regional demands.
Mrs Faranak Bahrami, Mr Abbas Ranjbar.s.a, Mr Ebrahim Fattahi,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), is the highest rainfall, which occurs at a given time in a basin. Hydrologist calculates the probable maximum flood for the design of overflow dams, by using the PMP, with two methods: statistical and synoptic. The purpose of this study is calculating PMP in the Ghomrood basin by using the synoptic method. For this purpose rain, meteorological data of the Iran’s Meteorological Organization were used. Also, the data on the 850 and 500 hPa levels were analyzed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR). In the following, the required synoptic maps produced and were studied. Iso rain maps were drawn, and depth-area-duration curves were determined. Eventually, PMP was estimated at 24, 48 and 72 hours. So that 24 hours PMP, by calculating 50 and 100 years return period of dew point estimated 51/75 and 54 mm respectively. Also for 48 hours PMP 128/25 and 132/05 mm, and for 72 hours PMP 97/9 and 101/75 estimated.
Hassan Afrakhteh, Mohammad Hajipur, Farhad Javan,
Volume 18, Issue 50 (3-2018)
Abstract
The oil has gradually obtained a predominant place in national economy since 1950 and nowadays, is the main important resource securing country financial needs. Two questions are the base of this research regarding contradiction of oil rent and traditional economic sectors including agriculture and livestock rearing which always have been intensified. These two questions are as follows: what are the impacts of oil wealth distribution among different regions on Iran's rural economic structure? What has been the locational-spatial consequences of this oil wealth distribution on agricultural sector as a main element of Iran's rural economic structure? Research required data have collected based on document study on the country during 2006- 2011. Collected data are analyzed based on Shift-Share Analysis and Gibbs- Martin methods. Result show that there have not been any incentive in the local, regional and national management for strengthening rural economic structure using oil wealth. In addition, absence of industrial sector in rural economic structure with emphasis on agricultural sector both from policy making view and credit securing show that there have not been any logical sight on the political economic system facing rural space economy for development.
