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Showing 33 results for Karam

Neamatallah Safarzaei, Alireza Entezari, Mokhtar Karami, Gholamali Khammar,
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Abstract

Today climate change cause increase in concentration of greenhouse gases has been cause increase extreme events and atmospheric hazards. goal of this research, analyze and review climate future is for atmospheric hazards in sistan region. In this study, to simulate minimum and maximum temperature data used from model data CanESM2 under three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with SDSM statistical scrolling and to simulate rainfall data from the Hadcm3 model under scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) with statistical scrolling LARS-WG. For this purpose, after calibration, validation and data modeling at the selected station, the performance of the model from the viewpoint of the compliance of the base temperature data (1984-2005) and rainfall (1986-2015) with simulation values (2020-2039) evaluated at a significant level of confidence. To adapt base data to simulated data Used of the three criteria root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE). According to simulated data were examined four important atmospheric hazard frost, heat waves, extreme precipitation and drought. The results showed that heat waves and drought in the future are serious threats in the region So that in 2021, under release scenario RCP 2.6, Predicted 32 heat waves and the study area will experience more than five heat waves in the year. In addition, most frequent drought forecast in 2020, under release scenario A1B. Extreme precipitation in some years under scenario B1 can be significant threat in the region. Intensity and abundance annual frost under release scenario RCP2.6 more than other scenarios and lower relative to investigated atmospheric threats.

 
Abbas Ladani, Ahmad Pour Ahmad, Karamatollah Ziyari, Rahmatollah Farhoudi, Saeed Zanganeh Shahraki,
Volume 23, Issue 68 (3-2023)
Abstract

 The purpose of this study was to develop good governance indicators and criteria, evaluate good governance in integrated management of Kish, and provide strategies to promote integrated management of coastal areas with good governance approach. To accomplish these goals, firstly, by explaining the subject literature and reviewing the research background, an integrated coastal zone management model with a good governance approach was presented. The main criteria in this model are participation, legislation, accountability, accountability, central justice, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness, and community-centricity, each of which includes sub-criteria. Then, by using questionnaire and interviewing residents and experts, as well as by applying hierarchical analysis method, good governance status in integrated management of Kish was assessed. The final score of Kish by calculations was 2.53 (out of 5), indicating a relatively inadequate situation of good governance in Kish integrated management. Finally, solutions were presented to promote good governance in the integrated management of
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Mina Mirian, Mostafa Karampoor, Mohamd Moradi, Houshang Ghemi, Behrouz Nasiri,
Volume 23, Issue 68 (3-2023)
Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the long-term variations in rainfall data as well as to identify wet and dry periods of 35 synoptic stations in Iran. In order to know the variation of rainfall in studied stations, average maps, coefficient of variation and skewness were drawn. Then, using the Mann-Kendall test, the significance of the trend on each station was tested at 95% confidence level. Finally, wet and dry periods were identified by using 20% high and low extreme rainfall during the 50-year study period. The results show that the general model of the country's regime is that the rainfall levels from the north to the south-east and from the west to the east of the country are reduced. The lowest values of the coefficient of variation and skewness are related to the northern regions especially the Caspian seaside and the highest amounts are in the southern regions, especially in the south and south-east. In general, the results of the Mann-Kendall test show that rainfall data in the seasonal scale, with the exception of several synoptic stations, do not show a significant trend. Most wet periods occur in the spring and the lowest in summer and the highest dry periods occur in the autumn and the lowest in spring. The number of droughts in the cold periods is significant. Also, the frequency of occurrence of dry periods is more than wet periods.

Sara Kiani, Dr. Amir Karam, Ms Nasrin Hoseinaei,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract

The Kan-Soleghan basin is located on the southern Hillside of the Alborz, which has affected the Alp-Himalayan active zone over time. In this respect, the evaluation of active tectonic processes and their effects on many human activities, such as the design and construction of cities, powerhouse, dams, and industrial facilities are of great importance. The passage of the Tehran-North Freeway Tunnel from the area increases the activity of the faults that contributed to the formation of the current morphology of the basin. In this research, morphotectonic indices including river asymmetry index (Af), basin shape (Bs), hypsometric integral (Hi), Stream length index (Sl), mountain front sinusity (Smf), valley width to valley height (Vf), topographic symmetry (Tp) was calculated. Finally, the mean of the results of the indices was calculated as the LAT index. In the present study, topographic Map 1:50000 and digital elevation (DEM) maps with 30 m spatial resolution (ASTER sensors), the boundary layer of the basin, were used to calculate morphometric indices. The Kan-Soleghan basin area is divided into three tectonic regions with slow, semi-active, active Tectonic, and the calculation of the relative active tectonic (LAT) index indicates that the studied area is in tectonic terms in active state. The tectonic structures, especially the faults of the region, have affected the asymmetry and shape of the basin. The main river Kan-Soleghan also shows asymmetry, which can be said due to the structural factors, especially the faults of the region, the basin has asymmetry and deviation to the left of the basin. Also, the construction of the Tehran-north freeway and the location of the Tunnel openings in the vicinity of the northern fault of Tehran, is one of the human factors influenced by the tectonic activity of the area, which requires tectonic activity.

Dr Esmaiel Najafi, Dr Amir Safari, Dr Ezatoalah Ghavavati, Dr Amir Karam,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


Geomorphology is related to the processes and forms of the earth's surface, and any human activity, including the construction of bridges, leads to quantitative and qualitative changes in the movement and displacement of materials and kinetic energy and affects the geomorphic system, is the concern and involvement of geomorphologists. Geomorphology, as a systematic science can also study and explain the environmental realities that have been objectified in the form of processes and forms in nature, and introduce their results and output spatially in the form of maps and models. The type of research is applied and the research method is descriptive-analytical and based on the results of the Ph.D. Thesis entitled "Geomorphological modeling of the construction of bridges in urban floodways (Case study: Tehran metropolis)". The results indicate the capability and application of geomorphology in modeling and optimal location and construction of bridges, in order to create more security and welfare of citizens, reduce costs and prevent financial and human losses due to the destruction and improper location of such structures in an urban floodway- river valleys and other natural environments. Also, this study, while enriching the literature of the field in question, has studied, explained, and conceptually modeled the role and application of geomorphology in the optimal location and construction of bridges in urban issues. 
Keywords: Geomorphology, Conceptual Model, urban floodway- river valleys, Bridge Construction.
 

Dr Tajeddin Karami, Dr Somayeh Teymouri,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


One of the theories that studied poverty and inequality after World War II and urban reconstruction in America in the duality of the suburbs and the central city is the theory of Spatial Mismatch. Despite the role of the background caused by racial-ethnic inequality and the contrast between the suburbs and the central city in the formation of the aforementioned theory, the main indicators of Spatial Mismatch indicate the lack of appropriateness between obtaining a job with sufficient benefits to access affordable and quality housing. This means that the backgrounds, structures and processes of inequality are different from one society to another and the lack of proportionality between the benefits of work and access to housing represents the spaces of poverty. The aim of the current research is to reveal the Spatial Mismatch between the two mentioned indicators in the metropolitan areas of Tehran. The current research is applied research in terms of its purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its method. The main data required include major occupational groups and housing status in official population and housing censuses, which have been analyzed using spatial functions. The analysis of the research findings shows that there is a direct relationship between occupational stratification and the quality of residence in Tehran's municipal areas. In such a way that the concentration centers of the lower classes and workers who are deprived of jobs with suitable benefits have been formed in residential areas with poor quality and worn-out textures. Based on this, in the southern regions of Tehran, there is a greater disproportion between getting a suitable job and access to quality housing. While in the northern areas of Tehran, there is much more suitable work and access to quality housing. The final result shows that the two main indicators investigated well reveal and represent the «Spatial Traps of Poverty» which are the main focus of Socio-Spatial Issues in Inner City Areas.

Keywords: Spatial Traps of Poverty, Spatial Mismatch, Work and Residence Spatial Mismatch, Occupational Stratification and Tehran.
 

Dr Sara Karami, Dr Nasim Hossein Hamzeh, Dr Abbas Ranjbar,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

Today, dust storms affect the lives of many people around the world and cause a lot of financial and human losses. Every year, Iran is affected by dust storms caused by internal sources and external dust sources located in neighboring countries. Semnan province has several dust-producing sources due to its geographical location, that affect not only this province, but also the neighboring provinces. The purpose of this study is to investigate the dust phenomenon of Semnan province and its monthly changes in the 15-year period, between 2003 and 2017. For this purpose, meteorological stations data of the province and the aerosol optical depth of satellite product have been investigated. Also, GOCART model has been used to estimate the amount of dust emissions from this region and to determine the vertical dust flux in Semnan province. The study of average dust flux showed that the highest values ​​of dust flux was in the southeast of Shahroud and then in the south of Shahroud, Damghan and Sorkheh. A monthly investigation showed that in all months, the average AOD in the southern half of Semnan province was higher than in the northern half. The highest levels of AOD were in May, April and June, and the highest amounts of dust flux were observed in March, June and July. Also, the prevailing wind direction was northeast and northeast, and this factor causes dust particles rising from this region and dust loading in the south of Semnan province and areas of Isfahan, Yazd and South Khorasan provinces.
Farzad Karami, Hamid Barghi, Yousof Ghanbari,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

Good governance, having the most important principles and criteria for public participation, accountability, accountability, centralism, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness, justice and equality, consensus and legitimacy is one of the new management approaches and new approaches to development and poverty reduction, especially poverty. This study aimed was to conduct a comparative analysis of the goog governance model in rural areas with an emphasis on the villages of the central part of Poldakhtar and Mosian section of Dehloran. The statistical population of the study, according to Cochran's formula, is 284 heads of households living in the villages of the two central parts and Mosian. Inferential data analysis was performed using t-test, and the sample villages were ranked in terms of rural governance status using The Topsis method. The results obtained from The Topsis method show that the governance situation in Mosian section of Dehloran Township is better than the central part of Poldakhtar Township, and the one sample t-test showed that the average of all components of rural good governance is above average and their significance level is an amount less than 0.05. The results of Levin test also show that there is a significant difference between the two central parts and Mosian regarding governance and its components, apart from responsibility (±1/96). Furthermore, In Mosian section, the average components (participation, accountability, and transparency) were higher than the central part of Poldakhtar Township and in the components (legality, collective agreement, justice, efficiency, and effectiveness) were less than the central part of Poldakhtar Township.
Somayeh Jahantigh Mand, Amir Karam, Ezat Ghanavati, ,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Geotourism is one of the important types of ecotourism with a responsible and conservation-oriented approach that emphasizes the popularization of earth sciences and the cultural, social, and economic development of the local community. In order to evaluate and explain the geotourism conditions of a region and the capabilities of a destination to become a geopark, it is necessary to present and explain the optimal and desirable model for the development of geotourism destinations. Firouzkouh County, with its numerous earth heritage assets, is considered one of the areas susceptible to geotourism. Given the high potential of geotourism for development as a geopark and the lack of necessary utilization of these capabilities in the development of the county, it is necessary to present an optimal model for analyzing the development of geopark capabilities in the county. In this research, through library and survey methods and using geotourism evaluation methods including the Facilas method, the GAM method, and the terrestrial diversity sites method, the county's geosites were evaluated and analyzed from the perspective of different values. The results show that most of the geosites in the region, despite their high representation, educational potential, and aesthetic value, have a weak connection with the local community, and their vulnerability and risk of extinction are increasing. Also, from the perspective of assessing the geopark capabilities, it was determined that this county currently does not have the capability to become an independent geopark. Accordingly, a model for developing the county's capability to become a geopark has been presented, which mainly emphasizes participatory management, entrepreneurship, multipurpose tourists, and geotourism typology, etc.

Haniyeh Asadzadeh, Tajaldin Karami, Farzaneh Sasanpour, Ali Shamaie,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (9-2025)
Abstract

In present society, structural transformations within the economy, rapid advancements in science and technology, constraints on financial and human resources, the interdependence of nations, global competition, and the increasing trend toward globalization necessitate a more profound understanding of "change" and the "future" for governments, businesses, organizations, and individuals. Futures studies play a critical role in assisting policymakers and planners in the development of effective programs by enhancing communication, coordination, and collaboration among organizations and institutions. This research is applied in its objectives, descriptive-analytical in its nature and methodology, and exploratory in its approach to scenario writing. Data were collected through both documentary and field methods. In the field method, a researcher-constructed questionnaire in the form of a cross-impact matrix was administered to experts for scoring the factors. Utilizing the Delphi method, 30 experts were selected, and questionnaires were distributed non-randomly through convenience sampling. The data were analyzed using MICMAC and MORPHOL software. The findings indicate that the urban-regional system of Tehran is in an unstable state. Ten key drivers were identified as influential in the development of the Tehran metropolitan area: dominant ideology, integrated management, expansion of information and communication technology infrastructure, e-commerce, enhancement of economic competitiveness, economic branding, electronic management systems, political transparency, facilitation of multinational companies' entry, and the expansion of urban diplomacy. Ultimately, the scenarios for the future development of the Tehran metropolitan area revealed eight potential outcomes. The first scenario, characterized by nine pessimistic assumptions and one intermediate assumption, was identified as having the highest probability of occurrence.

Mostafa Karampour, Yeganeh Khamoshian Sahneh, Zohreh Ebrahimi, Hamed Heidari,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (9-2025)
Abstract

Atmospheric rivers are one of the atmospheric phenomena that generate heavy rainfall and can lead to significant human and financial losses. Understanding the synoptic mechanisms of water vapor flux and atmospheric river formation in the country's atmosphere, as well as revealing the interaction between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) zonal component and the creation and intensification of this atmospheric phenomenon, can greatly improve the predictability of torrential rainfall events. The main goal of this research is to investigate the atmospheric river phenomenon in the Iranian atmosphere and its relationship with the phases of the NAO phenomenon. In this regard, data on the zonal and meridional components of wind, specific humidity, and NAO anomalies were obtained from the NOAA database during the statistical period of 1944–2019. The results showed that during the study period, atmospheric rivers have shifted in terms of longitude and latitude, moving toward the southern half of Iran. A high correlation was observed between the NAO index and meridional flows at levels above 600 hectopascals. Additionally, a sigma value of 0.2101 indicated a strong correlation with the NAO in the area where atmospheric rivers enter the Iranian atmosphere.  High-pressure centers play an important role in directing atmospheric rivers. These rivers cannot pass through high-pressure centers and typically exhibit meridional curvature at the outer borders of these centers in the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in southwest and northeast orientations. The primary moisture source for atmospheric rivers entering Iran is the Atlantic Ocean, which is further enhanced by water bodies such as the Red Sea, the Sea of Oman, the Indian Ocean, and the Persian Gulf.

Tahereh Karimi, Amir Karam, Parviz Zeaieanfirouzabadi, Seyyed Mohammad Tavakkoli Sabour,
Volume 25, Issue 79 (12-2025)
Abstract

Slope hazards and landslides annually inflict substantial damage in the mountainous regions of Iran, particularly within the eastern Alamut area of Qazvin province. Recent advancements in radar technology have facilitated the detection of ground surface movements, including slow slope motions and active landslides. The present study employs Sentinel 1A satellite descending data from 2018 to 2020, utilizing the Small Baseline Subset (SBaS-InSAR) methodology alongside digital elevation model (DEM) difference techniques. This approach aims to extract slope movements and Earth surface displacements, serving the critical objective of identifying new and active landslides while updating the landslide map to enhance landslide risk prediction. The results indicate that the SBaS model, which was corroborated with GPS data, field investigations, and Google Earth imagery, demonstrated a commendable level of accuracy (AUC = 0.78). The average annual movement over the study period was estimated to range from -48.6 to 40.2 mm, leading to the identification of fourteen landslide zones in the region, several of which continue to exhibit activity. Specifically, the landslide that transpired in Khobkuh on April 3, 2020, was assessed using the DEM difference model, which estimated surface changes between -1.62 and 2.75 meters. Conversely, the differential interferometry model calculated the displacement rate in this area to be between -25 and 70 mm. These methodologies offer significant advantages for estimating Earth surface displacement, subsidence, and landslides, facilitating the identification of vulnerable areas in mountainous regions and contributing to the mitigation of financial and human losses.

Arefe Shabani Eraghi, Seyed Mohammad Zamanzade, Fariba Karami,
Volume 25, Issue 79 (12-2025)
Abstract

Reconstructing paleoclimate, particularly environmental temperature, plays a crucial role in understanding both current and future climate patterns. The aim of this research is to investigate the climatic conditions and estimate the ambient temperature during the Holocene period based on two sediment cores extracted from the Jazmurian Basin. Paleotemperature reconstruction was conducted using several methods, including the calculation of the standardized coefficient of variation of oxygen-18 and carbon-13 isotopes. For this purpose, the isotopic analysis of oxygen-18/oxygen-16 and carbon-13 was performed. In Jazmurian core 1, the initial temperature was estimated at 46°C. A decreasing trend of approximately 10°C was observed down to a depth of 175 cm, distributed across eight stratigraphic levels. At 175 cm, the temperature shows an increasing trend, followed by a decline at the subsequent level, and then a return to an increasing and stable trend in the next two levels. In Jazmurian core 2, the initial temperature was approximately 50°C. A sharp decrease in temperature is observed between depths of 80 to 125 cm. Subsequently, there is a slight increase of about 1°C, which remains relatively stable until a depth of 170 cm. Beyond this point, the temperature decreases again in the final two layers. The concentration of carbon-13 in core 1 ranges from 0 to 25.6, while in core 2 it varies between 25.9 and 27.1. In core 1, six carbon -13 isotope samples show a value of zero, indicating an absence of carbon-13 in those sediment layers. In contrast, core 2 displays a narrower range of variation in carbon-13 values. The isotopic and temperature variations observed in these sediment cores reflect different climatic phases during the Holocene in the Jazmurian region. Such climatic changes are often linked to cultural shifts, and the decline of ancient civilizations has frequently coincided with environmental transformations. The findings of this research may be of significant value to archaeology researchers, particularly those studying ancient Iranian civilizations.

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