Showing 43 results for Ann
Faranak Behdost, Professor Keramatollah Ziari, Dr Hossein Hataminejad, Dr Hassan Ali Faraji Sabokbar,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Today, due to the conditions of globalization, branding of cities is very important due to the tourism potential and most areas with planning in this area try to further economic development and deprivation through tourism. In this study, the research strategy is deductive and its purpose will be practical. The required data and information are from library resources and survey (questionnaire and interview) of experts. The meta-swat technique is based on an inside-out approach and a resource-based perspective and provides competitiveness to cities and regions. The city of Kermanshah has high capabilities to attract tourism in order to be urban, regional and global competitiveness. The findings of this study show that among the capabilities and capabilities of Kermanshah, the existence of historical and cultural monuments such as, Taq-e Bostan, pillars, historic houses, museums, etc., the role of the center of handicrafts, cultural similarities with people living in Iraq and Turkey, culture, Beliefs and customs as tourism potentials of Kermanshah have four characteristics (VIRO) and in fact, this feature is the most strategic fit with macro variables affecting tourist attraction and urban competitiveness through tourism in the city of Kermanshah. Among the major influential variables of the Corona pandemic, the existence of sanctions against Iran, climate change and natural disasters and lack of funding, have the greatest impact on the urban competitiveness of Kermanshah. According to the sources and macro variables, a strategic fit map was drawn and appropriate solutions were provided.
Dr Afshin Mottaghi, Mr Arash Ghorbani Sepehr, Ms Parisa Ghorbani Sepehr,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
In the field of spatial planning of border areas, the macro-perspective view of geography should be applied in order to identify the possibilities, capabilities and limitations of border areas, at least to avoid the tensions and challenges due to unbalanced development. , Deprivation and spatial heterogeneity arise, prevented. The research method in this study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. In this regard, using a combination of multi-criteria decision-making techniques similar to the ideal option (TOPSIS) and Shannon entropy coefficient, the distribution and development of spatial development indicators in health-service sectors in Kurdistan province evaluation The border cities of this province have been classified according to the level of having these indicators. The question of the present study is what is the situation of the cities of Kurdistan province in terms of spatial distribution of health and service indicators? It seems that the level of enjoyment of any of the border cities of Kurdistan province is not at the desired level. The findings of this study indicate that Kurdistan province, despite having a special position and high geopolitical potential, is still one of the most deprived provinces in the country. In addition, there is a kind of imbalance and heterogeneity in the distribution and development of facilities and development indicators in the border cities of the province. Based on the analysis of 13 indicators of the space organization from a total of 4 border cities of this province, Saqez and Baneh cities in the semi-privileged (semi-deprived) group and the two cities of Marivan and Sarvabad in the category without (deprived) place Taken. Based on the results of this study, the space organization in the border cities of Kurdistan province is highly heterogeneous and these cities are in the middle to lower level in terms of health-service development that is necessary in terms of health and services This border province should be given special attention to ensure the lasting security of the border citizens of Kurdistan.
Yaser Nazaryan, Amane Haghzad, Leyla Ebrahimi, Kia Abozorgmehr51,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Vulnerability is the inevitable result of risks and crises that threaten societies to varying degrees. One of the main threats is earthquakes. The recent approach to disaster management programs is to increase the resilience of communities that have different dimensions. One of them is the physical dimension of urban resilience, which is linked to the components of land use planning. In this research, with the aim of analyzing land use criteria affecting the resilience of Tabriz city and using fuzzy AHP method, research has been done.
Based on the results of the study of theoretical foundations, 13 effective criteria have been identified and the basis of action. The required data were extracted and used from maps and spatial information of urban plans, especially the detailed plan of Tabriz, Then Using ARC Map10.3.1 software, each criterion is analyzed and each criterion is presented in the form of a fuzzy map. Sum, Product and gamma fuzzy operators have been used to achieve the final resilience map. Due to the high accuracy of the gamma operator, its results are considered as the final output.
The results show that in the city of Tabriz, 2% have very low resilience, 40.8%, low resilience,15.3% moderate resilience, 23.5% high resilience and 7.2% very high resilience - based on the Used criteria-. Areas with low resilience are generally located in the north of Tabriz city and correspond to the informal settlement texture and the worn-out texture of the city, which corresponds to the fault line of Tabriz and Micronutrient and permeability are other features of these areas. Due to the high population density in these areas, it is necessary to immediately adopt the necessary programs to improve the quality of physical resilience criteria in the city.
Haniyeh Asadzadeh, Tajaldin Karami, Farzaneh Sasanpour, Ali Shamaie,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Today, due to structural changes in the economy, rapid developments in science and technology, restrictions on financial and human resources, the interdependence of countries, global competition, increasing desire for globalization, the need for a better understanding of "change" and "future" for governments, businesses, organizations, organizations And people demand it. To this end, futures studies help policymakers and planners to design appropriate development programs by establishing communication, coordination, and collaboration between organizations and institutions. This research is applied in terms of practical purpose and in terms of the nature and method of descriptive-analytical research and in terms of exploratory scenario modelling. Data were collected through documentary and field methods. In the field method, the researcher-made questionnaire was provided to the experts in the form of a mutual matrix for scoring factors. 30 experts were selected by Delphi method. The distribution of questionnaires was also unlikely. Mick McMurphy software was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the system of Tehran's urban area is in an unstable state. Also, the ten driving forces, including the ideologies of the ruling ideology, integrated management, expanding the infrastructure of information and communication technology, e-commerce, expanding economic competitiveness, economic branding, electronic management system, political transparency, facilitating the entry of multinational corporations, expanding urban diplomacy as drivers Influential ones were extracted in the development of Tehran's urban area. Finally, the scenarios facing the development of Tehran's urban area showed that there are eight scenarios, the first scenario with the highest probability of occurrence has 9 pessimistic and one pessimistic.
Toba Alizadeheh, Majid Rezaie Banafsh, Gholamreza Goodarzi, Hashem Rostamzadeh,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Dust is a phenomenon that has many environmental effects in various parts of human life, including: agriculture, economy, health and so on. The purpose of this study is to investigate and predict the dust phenomenon in Kermanshah. Meteorological data with a resolution of 3 hours in the statistical period (2020-2000) of Kermanshah station was obtained from the Meteorological Organization. First, the dust data were normalized and then using ANN neural network models to predict dust concentration and ANFIS adaptive neural network to debug and predict the time series of dust occurrence in MATLAB software were debugged and predicted. Findings showed that the maximum predicted dust concentration related to the minimum fenugreek point with the highest Pearson correlation with dust was estimated to be 3451.23 μg / m3. Also, the results of time series prediction using ANFIS model showed that the linear bell membership function with grade 3, in the training and testing stages, has the most desirable input function among other membership functions. According to the forecasting models, the highest probability of maximum dust occurrence in the next 20 years in Kermanshah was 94%.
Ali Ahmadi, Majid Vali Shariat Panahi, Reza Borna, Rahmatollah Farhoodi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Due to the many complexities, housing planning, especially for vulnerable groups, in a city as large as Tehran, requires a model to simplify the process and speed up calculations, which does not currently exist. With the aim of solving this problem, the present study proposes a model with the following steps: 1) Explaining the objectives 2) Estimating the housing needs of the target community 3) Identifying expandable areas 4) Proposing construction patterns 5) Proposing dispersion patterns 6) Calculations and patterns Financial and 7) suggest operating patterns. The information required to implement the model was collected from two questionnaires and data from the Statistics Center. In this model, three housing models with minimum, optimal and average areas and three types of existing housing construction, 100% infrastructure and freeing up the yard space were used as public urban space. The proposed zoning was adapted to the 22 districts of Tehran Municipality due to compliance with the available data. Sales price and financial calculations were calculated based on the internal rate of return of 20% and contract subsidies, and finally 4 free transfer models, lifelong lease, lease on condition of ownership in the program areas were proposed. The results show that one of the problems in this sector is the lack of appropriate decision-making structure and planning tools that can provide a comprehensive and complete review of the current situation, comprehensive and comprehensive solutions. Therefore, according to the model and using the indicators used, regions 2, 6 and 13 have the lowest and regions 19 and 22 have the highest potential for housing development of low-income and vulnerable groups, and finally, the model has suggested the most housing in regions 22, 4, 19 and 11.
Behroz Ghadar, Sadegh Besharatifar, Zarin Forougi Forougi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Abstract
Evaluation of indicators of sustainable development, as the axis of human excellence, is the dominant basis of urban planning and land management and has a decisive role in spatial dispersion and the formation of environmental behavior of human societies. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical and its main tool is a researcher-made questionnaire. Data were collected using library and survey methods (questionnaire tool). The statistical population is 35 neighborhoods of Bandar Mahshahr that the sample size through Cochran's formula with 95% confidence level using the number of households in Mahshahr 382 people who through simple random sampling in the neighborhood has distributed a questionnaire. Based on the research criteria, the results show that the neighborhoods of Bandar Mahshahr are in a state of instability and the severity of instability is different between them. So that in the selected indicators from the 35 neighborhoods, only neighborhoods 1, 2, 6, 15, 16, 17, 19 are at a stable level and other neighborhoods (28) are in an unstable situation, this situation is affected by their position in It is the spatial structure of the city, which has led to the formation of neighborhood inequalities in terms of indicators of social stability and segregation. The results of route analysis have shown that all economic, social, physical, environmental and spatial justice indicators have a positive and significant effect on sustainable development of Mahshahr city, among which the economic index has the greatest effect on sustainable development of urban areas.
Keywords: evaluation, sustainable development, neighborhoods, planning, Mahshahr
- Mohammad Reza Ghorbani Param, - Pouyan Shahabian, - Vahid Dinarani, - Ronak Najafi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
The quality of the urban environment is one of the important indicators of the development of any city. In this regard, the type of pattern that can be used in cities can have a great impact that biophilic urban planning is one of the most important patterns due to its relationship and centrality with nature. The purpose of this study is to explain the environmental quality criteria of Tehran according to the components of biophilic urban planning. The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on data collection through survey method. The research tool was a questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by the elite community and its reliability was confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient greater than 0.70. The statistical population of the study also consists of urban experts and specialists, including academics and experts in Tehran. Due to the lack of statistics in this area, coronary and cost constraints, 120 experts were selected as the sample size. The results showed that the structural-functional, content and physical-spatial indicators of the quality of Tehran's urban environment based on biophilic urban planning were significant at a level of less than 0.05. The study of the mean and significant direction indicates the weakness of these indicators and lack of attention to biophilic urban planning in the planning of this city. Also, the results of structural equation modeling confirmed that the structural-functional, content and physical-spatial indices of biophilic urban planning can be effective in improving the quality of Tehran's urban environment. . Therefore, biophilic urban planning has not been emphasized in the planning model of Tehran, but the results indicate their effectiveness in improving the quality of the city's environment if used.
Mohammad Radman, Mohammad Saligheh, Mohammad Hossein Naserzadeh,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
In order to comprehend the water flow characteristics and variations of the Karun River, we examined the Zaz, Bazoft, and Beshar sub-basins from its main branches. The reason for choosing these basins was the proximity to the catchment centers of the Middle Zagros and their location upstream of the dams.
Iran Water Resources Management Company provided all the required data (from the water year
1356-57 to 1395-96), and we analyzed them using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, data skewness, skewness, and Pearson correlation. Then, we performed the linear regression test to determine the effect of temperature and precipitation on river discharge, and they conducted the Mann-Kendall test to identify the trend and jump points. The results of the data analysis showed that all of them are in normal conditions, although they have some elongation and skewness. The Pearson correlation test revealed a correlation between meteorological and hydrometric data.
The regression model used shows the changes in precipitation and discharge (unlike temperature and discharge) well. The significance number of all stations in the model is less than 0.05, which shows that the changes that occurred between predictor and dependent variables are significant. We see the high performance of the model in explaining the changes in discharge compared to precipitation. According to the regression charts, the decreasing trend of precipitation and discharge and increasing temperature are clear in all three basins.
The Mann-Kendall test reveals a significant trend of increasing temperature in Bazeft and Bashar basins, a decreasing trend of discharge in Bazeft and Bashar basins, and a decreasing trend of precipitation in Zaz and Bazoft basins.except for the temperature of the Zaz basin, all variables show mutations in mutation basins.
Malihe Izadi, Hamid Reza Varesi, Mahmod Mahmodzadeh,
Volume 15, Issue 37 (9-2015)
Abstract
Attention to housing and planning in line with sustainable development in the framework for planning national and regional is to our use of the knowledge and techniques of programming, existing situation and issues related to it is made clear that. To the main goal this research study and the analysis of the most tiresome effective in planning housing classification level and province of the country based on.This is a descriptive method of research-analysis. collecting data with the use of the results of the census and public housing in 1390 and resources library and documents and evidence have been done. The index of the study, 27 indicators inclusive of housing is a little bit you returned home Models based on regional planning(Multi-criteria decision analysis Vikor) Has beenanalyzed. Using a factor analysis technique, These four factors were total 91/18 % of the variance explained Calculation of productivity. The provinces have indices using vikor. Based on this classification level, Esfahan(Zero coefficient),Golestan(Zero), Tehran(zero), East Azerbaijan(0/079 coefficient) in first to fourth levels are very Brkhordar And Semnan provinces(0/87),Ardabil(0/88), Sistan and Baluchistan(0/90) ,Bushehr(0/90), Lorestan(0/91), Hormozgan(0/91),Mahal Bakhtiari (0/92), Kohkiluyeh &Bourahmd(0/94),Qom(0/94),North Khorasan (0/96) and Elam(1), Respectively, and thelastlevelsvery brkhordar havetheleast.
Hadi Nayyeri,
Volume 15, Issue 37 (9-2015)
Abstract
The subject of the study is to analysis pattern of Mahabad River channel. This area is located on the south of Uromia Lake. Rapid changing of its channels pattern is an important characteristics which the evaluation of these characteristics is necessary to any hmplementation of development projects. For this purpose, the morphological changes of river channel were recognized by the areal photographices and satellite imageduring different times periods. The relationship between effective variables on the channel pattern such as, discharge, slope, stream power,stream bank clay content and width of bed, and observed pattern changes were analyses. The results showed that formation of braising channels could be the result of accumulation of bank coarse materials and increasing of width to depth ratio. The pattern of the river changed to sinuosity at the downside of braiding channel.the increased discharge and more river bank resistance due to high clay content caused to river pattern changed from breading to sinocity.In the distance between Mahabad dam at the upstream and diversion dam at the downstream, the river pattern was changed to Anabaranching. Assessment and comparison of Arial photographs before and after of Mahabad dam construction revealed that these types of channels were developed recently. Reduction of peak flows and sediment deposition in the channel as the result of dam construction, prepared the essenssial conditions to form Anabrancing
Yadollah Balyani, Mohammad Saligheh, Hossein Asakereh, Mohammad Hossein Nasserzadeh,
Volume 15, Issue 37 (9-2015)
Abstract
Precipitation is one of the most intractable elements. The oscillating behavior of the crucial environmental planning (explicit and tacit knowledge of the behavior), is the key variable. Spectrum analysis techniques to understand the behavior of overt or covert methods suitable for the extraction and analysis of climate oscillations with different wave lengths. The size range of the distribution variance across all wave lengths may provide time series. In this study, data from 37 stations Heleh and Mond watershed (both rain and synoptic) from its inception until 2011, who had over 30 years of data, to analyze the cycle of annual rainfall, interest has been taken. So that the space is 3-2 year cycles in every area of study, the highest annual rainfall events are returned. On this basis, the Story of annual precipitation 95 percent for each of the stations under study and cycle meaningful estimate of the time series of basin data were extracted.
Daryosh Yarahmdi, Asadollah Khoshkish, Mustafa Karampour, Ismail Ahmadi,
Volume 16, Issue 40 (3-2016)
Abstract
One of the Siberian high pressure system is the Earth climate system, atmospheric important. The purpose of this study, analysis of core changes Siberian high pressure system in the period mentioned. To identify the core spatial variations in the timeframe mentioned data, daily sea level pressure and temperature of the earth's surface with a resolution of 2.5 degrees within the space of 30 to 65 degrees north latitude and 130 degrees east longitude from the database 45 to NOAA NCEP / NCAR for the cold was extracted. The core of the GIS spatial data analysis system and two separate zones and point to output six decades was ten years old and were analyzed. To study the process of change, determine the direction of the trend, type and timing of changes in temperature and pressure of the core of the system the test of Mann-Kendal is used. Comparison between the first and sixth decades 60-year period showed that the core in January from the East to the West and in October and March from the North East to the South West from the Balkhash Lake to Baikal there has been a significant shift. Results also showed that during the same period the Siberian High central pressure was reduced in January while the land surface temperatures in January showed a significant upward trend. Unlike the months of October and January, in March the central pressure had few mutations but no trend was observed. However, during this month the Earth's surface temperature has increased significantly during thementioned period.
Maryam Hoseini, Mohammad Karimi, Mohammad Saadimesgari, Mehdi Heydary,
Volume 16, Issue 40 (3-2016)
Abstract
According to urban environment complexity and dynamism and need to targeted land use change, incorporation GIS and PSS in the form of Spatial Planning Support Systems is inevitable. The aim of this study is to develop a spatial planning support system for urban land uses change (ULCMS), such that planners can enter expert knowledge in the form of desired criteria and weights and see their influence in results. The developed system including modules for land suitability evaluation, calculation of the area of required land and land use change. Access models, neighborhood models and Multi Criteria Decision Making methods, fuzzy operators, linear regression, maximum potential and hierarchical optimization models is used in planning and implementation these modules. System practical test performed for measuring residential, commercial, industrial, agriculture and service land use changes for the year 1390 and 1395 in Shiraz city. The result shows that ULCMS help users in better understanding, showing complexity of land use system and development and improvement land management strategies for the creation of better balance between urban expansion and environmental conservation.
Kamal Omidvar, Reza Ebrahimi, Mohammad Kykhsrvy Kayani, Ghasem Lkzashkoor,
Volume 16, Issue 43 (12-2016)
Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of global warming on where the slope changes when the monthly temperature in Iranian territory over the coming decades (2050-2015). The simulated temperature dynamic model EH5OM subset Hybrid Models atmospheric circulations (GCM) selection and data model of the Center for Theoretical Physics Salam (Italy) were derived from emission scenarios A1B scenario was chosen given the scenario of 2100 -2001 found that from 2050 to 2015 were used in this study data is then output the data in the fourth edition of the regional climate model (RegCM4) Linux environment was fine scale output data Downscaling model with dimensions of 27/0 * 27 / Degrees latitude is where the dimensions of 30 x 30 km area of approximately cover the average temperature of the matrix deals 13140 2140 * was extracted. Finally, the slope of the average monthly temperature during the period under study by Mann-Kendall slope age and matrix computation in MATLAB software 13140 * 12 respectively. Results show rising temperatures in March and April to June, more than 90% of the country, that it will be spring's warmer. Increasing the temperature in the winter months and spring mountainous parts of the western half of the country is warming the cold regions of Iran. Temperature negative trend in October and November in the northern part of the eastern half of the region's countries could be indicative of colder temperatures in the northern West.
Somayeh Soltani Gerdfaramarzi, Aref Saberi, Morteza Gheisouri ,
Volume 17, Issue 44 (3-2017)
Abstract
Rainfall is one of the most important components of the water cycle and plays a very important role in the measurement of climate characteristic in any area. Limitations such as lack of sufficient information about the amount of rainfall in time and space scale and complexity of the relationship between meteorological elements related to rainfall, causes the calculation of these parameters using the conventional method not to be implemented. One method of evaluating and forecasting of rainfall in each region is time series models. In this research, to predict the average annual rainfall synoptic station at Mahabad, Uromiya and Mako in West Azarbayejan provience during 1984-2013, linear time series ARIMA was used. To investigate model static, Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) was applied and with differencing method, the non-static data transformed to static data. In next step, stochastic models to estimate the annual rainfall average were used. With regard to the evaluation criterion such as T, P-VALUE < 0.05 and Bayesian Information Creterion (BIC), ARIMA (1,0,0), ARIMA (0,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,1) models was determined as a suitable model for predicting annual rainfall in the three selected stations at Uromiya, Makoo and Mahabad. In the following, the annual rainfall for 3 (2013-2016) years is forecasted which based on rainfall data in that time, the adjusted model was acceptable.
,
Volume 17, Issue 47 (12-2017)
Abstract
In recent decades, developing urban tourism as one of major economic activities in different countries has caused many managers and planners to consider increased quality of tourism experience and protecting interests of host communities to expand the activities of this industry, knowing potentials, existing problems, decision making and planning. To do so, strategic planning can be propounded as a response to difficulties occurred due to lack of appropriate planning in tourism. In core tourism like all other commercial activities, strategic tourism should be depicted. So, one of strategic planning models used to develop tourism particularly urban tourism is a traditional model called SWOT. Therefore, in present study, it has been endeavored of Shahr-e-kord located in Chaharmahal-e-Bakhtiari as well as to analyze difficulties and problems existing in respect of Shahr-e-kord tourism. His study is a descriptive-analytic one and was done using filed studies and data gathered through evidence and libraries, questionnaires (considering the attitude of 70 officials and tourists) and Internet. Then, data was analyzed using excel software and strategic model of SWOT. Results suggested that due to having high capacities for tourism, Shahr-e-kord suffers from lack of enough infrastructure problems. On the other hand, it encompasses opportunities for educated young people to be employed and for investing. Some of major solutions to develop tourism are to increase advertisement, provide welfare and accommodation facilities, attract investment and be protected by government.
Mostafa Mohammadi Dehcheshme, Nahid Sajadian, Ali Shojaian, Narges Gheysari,
Volume 18, Issue 48 (3-2018)
Abstract
Study how to relax and leisure from the work of citizens it is located in the field of leisure geography studies. The current study is practical in an aim and descriptive– analytical in method and practical– theoretical in nature. In this study, the first path analysis model was used in order to express logical correlations between environmental and demographics variables, on leisure geography and providing structural analysis.the results of study path analysis model shows that the impacts of the physical environment outside the home with standardized coefficients0.461 into other variables have the greatest impact and demographic variables with standard coefficients 0.025 has least impact on leisure geography of metropolis. In the following, the number of 383 questionnaires was distributed in order to study comparatively the spatial pattern leisure geography among citizen's zones 2, 4 and 7 of the city of Ahvaz that they were at different levels of enjoyment. The results of the questionnaire of citizens indicate that leisure pattern in Region2 is different from other areas; However, the pattern of citizens leisure of district4 and7 has not a significant difference together. In this context, assigning a specific type of planning is approved in order to improve the quality of community health and welfare of the citizens;; with regard to natural and human environment conditions of the city and leisure facilities available.
Dr Maryam Bayatvarkeshi, Ms Rojin Fasihi,
Volume 18, Issue 48 (3-2018)
Abstract
Modeling provides the studying of groundwater managers as an efficient method with the lowest cost. The purpose of this study was comparison of the numerical model, neural intelligent and geostatistical in groundwater table changes modeling. The information of Hamedan – Bahar aquifer was studied as one of the most important water sources in Hamedan province. In this study, MODFLOW numerical code in GMS software, artificial neural network (ANN) and neural – fuzzy (CANFIS) method in NeuroSolution software, wavelet-neural method in MATLAB software and geostatistical method in ArcGIS software were used. The results showed that the accuracy of methods in estimation of the groundwater table with the lowest Normal Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) include Wavelet-ANN, CANFIS, geostatistical, ANN and numerical model, respectively. The NRMSE value in Wavelet-ANN method as optimization method was 0.11 % and in numerical model was 2.2 %. Also the correlation coefficients were 0.998 and 0.904, respectively. So application of neural combination models, specially, wavelet theory in estimated the groundwater table is most suitable than geostatistical and numerical model. Moreover, in the neural intelligent models were applied latitude, longitude and altitude as available variables in input models. The zoning results of groundwater table indicated that the decreased trend of groundwater table was from the west to the east of aquifer which was in line with the hydraulic gradient.
Fatemeh Ghiasabadi Farahani, Faramarz Khoshakhlagh, Aliakbar Shamsipour, Ghasem Azizi, Ebrahim Fattahi,
Volume 18, Issue 48 (3-2018)
Abstract
The present research about the spatial changes of precipitation is mainly focused on western areas of Iran. Precipitation data for three seasons of fall, winter, and spring have been obtained from Esafzari Database, with 15*15 km spatial resolution in the form of a Lambert Cone Image System for the period from 1986 to 2015. To examine the prevailing pattern of precipitation in west of Iran, we have used geostatistical methods of spatial autocorrelation. The changes in precipitation trends have been analyzed using parametric and non-parametric analyses of regression and Mann Kendal. We have used MATLAB for analysis of the data. We have also used ArcGIS and Surfer for drawing maps. The results of inter-decade changes of positive spatial autocorrelation of precipitation in west of Iran have indicated that there has been a decline in spatial extent of the positive spatial autocorrelation pattern in spring and fall, except for winter with a negligible increasing trend. Nevertheless, except for the second period, no considerable spatial changes were observed in the spatial pattern of precipitation in the region. However, there was a decreasing trend in the negative spatial autocorrelation of precipitation in annual and seasonal scales. The results of trend analysis have indicated that there was a decreasing trend in a vast area of the west parts of the country in annual scale and also in winter. Although there was an increasing trend in precipitation in fall and spring, but the trend was not significant in 95 % of confidence interval. The results of Man Kendal test have confirmed the results obtained from linear regression.
