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Identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting the increase of earthquake risk in worn-out urban areas with a combined approach of fuzzy Delphi technique and BMW model
Ehsan Arkani, Hossein Hatami Nejad, Soheil Qare,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Today, the vulnerability of cities, especially the old and worn-out tissues to earthquakes, has become a global issue for experts in various fields. This situation has become more acute in countries with dangerous natural structures, including Iran, in recent decades. Exhausted urban tissues, as the main boiling point of a city, reflect the identity of that city, and are vulnerable to natural disasters, especially unstable earthquakes. This study was conducted with the aim of identifying and prioritizing the factors affecting the increase of earthquake risk in worn-out urban areas. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of analytical method based on multi-criteria approach. Library and field methods were used to gather information. The statistical population of the study consisted of experts and specialists in the field of urban planning, and the sample size was estimated at 30 people. In order to achieve the goals considered in this study, fuzzy Delphi technique and BMW model were used. The results of fuzzy Delphi technique confirmed the identified factors and subscales. The results of the BMW model indicated that among the identified factors, natural factors with a final score of 0.321 were in the first place, housing quality factor with a final score of 0.287 in the second place, distance from special uses with a final score of 255. 0.0 is in the third place and the demographic and economic factor with the final score of 0.137 is in the fourth place.
Comparative Measurement of the Resilience of New Urban Habitations against Earthquake Risk (Case Study: Isfahan Metropolitan)
Mr Fazllollah Karimi Ghotbabadi, Dr Ali Zangiabadi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract
Earthquakes resilience, which is actually how social, economic, institutional, geographical, etc. capacities of societies are affected by earthquakes, is one of the issues that should be considered in any society. It is worth noting that the type of attitude towards the issue of resilience and how to analyze it on the one hand, plays a key role in how to recognize resilience and its causes, and on the other hand also influences policies and measures to reduce risk and how to deal with it. The purpose of this study is to rank the resilience of new urban Habitations in the ​​Isfahan Metropolitan earthquake risk using a combined index. Due to the studied components and the nature of the subject, the approach of this research is "descriptive-analytical". The statistical population of this study includes 6 new urban Habitations of Shahin shahr, Majlesi, Sepahan shahr, Fooladshahr, Baharestan and Shahid Keshvari. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in the research literature section, information has been collected through the library method. Based on the results of POSET, Majlesi, Baharestan, Foolad shahr, Sepahan Shahr, Shahin Shahr and Shahid Keshvari Habitations with the sum of options 3, 6, 7, 8, 11 and 14 in terms of the combined index of resilience against earthquake risk, respectively. They have 1-6. Therefore, in order to reduce the adverse effects that resilience has on any community, paying attention to the capacities of each Habitation is one of the issues that should be considered in every community to prevent human and financial losses caused by possible accidents.
 
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