Dr. Ruhallah Moradhaseli, Dr. Ali Bayat, Mrs. Fateme Radmehri,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
Aerosol optical depth in 550 nm and angstrom exponent measurements with MODIS have been studied with 1-degree resolution for the period 2006-2017 in the middle east. Moreover, tropospheric aerosol optical depth and depolarization ratios measured at 532 nm with CALIOP have been studied for same area and same period of time too. These parameters have been classified seasonally. Optical depth results show high values for the region especially in spring and summer seasons. During the cold seasons, optical depth values are much less compared with their values at warm seasons. At spring, dust sources located in northern Iraq and those located in central and northern parts of Arabian Peninsula are much more active. Sources located in southern parts of Arabian Peninsula get more active by summer. Angstrom exponent results show that in arid and semi-arid parts of middle east, aerosol sizes are mainly in coarse mode. In arid parts of Iraq and Arabian Peninsula coarse mode particles are dominant during 4 seasons, but for arid parts inside Iran coarse mode is dominant during warm seasons and a modification in suspended particle sizes can be seen during cold seasons. Depolarization measurements of CALIOP show that almost in all seasons, non-spherical particles are ready in middle east atmosphere which is usual for an area inside the dust belt.
Salman Kazemian Souraki , Fereshteh Nasrollahi, Amin Deilami Moazzi,
Volume 25, Issue 79 (12-2025)
Abstract
Shia political Islam, centered around Iran, is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that has undergone numerous transformations in recent decades. Understanding the future trends of this intellectual and political movement is of great importance to analysts, politicians, and the general public. This article employs a futures studies approach to examine the trends of Shia political Islam within Iran's political geography. This foresight approach allows us to look beyond the current situation and outline various scenarios for the future of politics and society in Iran. The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical, utilizing library and documentary sources, including qualitative and quantitative analysis of historical data, expert interviews, and content analysis of media and religious texts. The research findings indicate that Shia political Islam in Iran's geography is undergoing a period of transformation, influenced by various factors such as demographic changes, social and economic developments, and geopolitical shifts. Several potential scenarios for the future of Shia political Islam in Iran's political geography are presented, including: the Continuity Scenario, the Reform Scenario, the Radicalism Scenario, and the Secularism Scenario. Considering these scenarios, the analysis of probable trends and events in the scenarios, and political and security developments with a view to challenges and opportunities in the Middle East region, the Islamic Republic of Iran, adhering to the Continuity Scenario along with the Reform Scenario, aims to strengthen republicanism (religious democracy) while emphasizing the preservation of independence and indigenous Islamic identity in the region, and to have a more prominent presence in the Middle East.
