Salman Kazemian Souraki , Fereshteh Nasrollahi, Amin Deilami Moazzi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Shia political Islam, centered around Iran, is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that has undergone numerous transformations in recent decades. Understanding the future trends of this intellectual and political movement is of great importance to analysts, politicians, and the general public. This article employs a futures studies approach to examine the trends of Shia political Islam within Iran's political geography. This foresight approach allows us to look beyond the current situation and outline various scenarios for the future of politics and society in Iran. The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical, utilizing library and documentary sources, including qualitative and quantitative analysis of historical data, expert interviews, and content analysis of media and religious texts. The research findings indicate that Shia political Islam in Iran's geography is undergoing a period of transformation, influenced by various factors such as demographic changes, social and economic developments, and geopolitical shifts. Several potential scenarios for the future of Shia political Islam in Iran's political geography are presented, including: the Continuity Scenario, the Reform Scenario, the Radicalism Scenario, and the Secularism Scenario. Considering these scenarios, the analysis of probable trends and events in the scenarios, and political and security developments with a view to challenges and opportunities in the Middle East region, the Islamic Republic of Iran, adhering to the Continuity Scenario along with the Reform Scenario, aims to strengthen republicanism (religious democracy) while emphasizing the preservation of independence and indigenous Islamic identity in the region, and to have a more prominent presence in the Middle East.
Sayyed Mohammad Hosseini,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
for the spatial analysis of precipitation in the Middle East, have been used gridded precipitation data from the World Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) with a monthly temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5×0.5 arc degrees. Therefore, a matrix of 80 x 160 dimensions was obtained for the Middle East region (160 longitudinal cells and 80 transverse cells). The reason for choosing network data is their proper spatial and temporal separation and their up-to-date compared to station data. The period under investigation is from 1970 to 2020 AD. Finally, the long-term maps of the Middle East precipitation were drawn on an annual and monthly basis. The results indicate that precipitation in the Middle East tends to concentrate and cluster in the spatial and temporal dimension. In other words, due to the special geographical location of the Middle East region, such as uneven topography, distance and proximity to moisture-feeding sources (Caspian Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic Ocean, and Indian Ocean) and the direction of unevenness, Precipitation in high altitude areas, It is concentrated in the neighborhood of seas and oceans and also in the windy slopes of the mountain range of the region. The uneven distribution of geographical conditions has caused uneven distribution of Precipitation in the Middle East. So that; The center and gravity of the Middle Eastern Precipitation is concentrated in the eastern end of the Black Sea, southern Turkey in the neighborhood of Syria and Iraq, the Ararat-Zagors belt in the west of Iran, the southern shore of the Caspian Sea, the Pamir highlands and the Bay of Bengal in India, and the Hindu Kush highlands in Pakistan. Is. However, the many parts of the Middle East, due to their proximity to large deserts (African Sahara, Lut Desert, Dasht-Kavir, Arabia's Rab-al-Khali and Afghan deserts), have less than 100 mm of Precipitation. The results showed that the maximum Precipitation of this region has been transferred to the winter season, and the summer season is still the driest period in the Middle East, and only the coasts of the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal have monsoon rains
Dr. Ruhallah Moradhaseli, Dr. Ali Bayat, Mrs. Fateme Radmehri,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
Aerosol optical depth in 550 nm and angstrom exponent measurements with MODIS have been studied with 1-degree resolution for the period 2006-2017 in the middle east. Moreover, tropospheric aerosol optical depth and depolarization ratios measured at 532 nm with CALIOP have been studied for same area and same period of time too. These parameters have been classified seasonally. Optical depth results show high values for the region especially in spring and summer seasons. During the cold seasons, optical depth values are much less compared with their values at warm seasons. At spring, dust sources located in northern Iraq and those located in central and northern parts of Arabian Peninsula are much more active. Sources located in southern parts of Arabian Peninsula get more active by summer. Angstrom exponent results show that in arid and semi-arid parts of middle east, aerosol sizes are mainly in coarse mode. In arid parts of Iraq and Arabian Peninsula coarse mode particles are dominant during 4 seasons, but for arid parts inside Iran coarse mode is dominant during warm seasons and a modification in suspended particle sizes can be seen during cold seasons. Depolarization measurements of CALIOP show that almost in all seasons, non-spherical particles are ready in middle east atmosphere which is usual for an area inside the dust belt.
