Showing 13 results for Scenario
Haniyeh Asadzadeh, Tajaldin Karami, Farzaneh Sasanpour, Ali Shamaie,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Today, due to structural changes in the economy, rapid developments in science and technology, restrictions on financial and human resources, the interdependence of countries, global competition, increasing desire for globalization, the need for a better understanding of "change" and "future" for governments, businesses, organizations, organizations And people demand it. To this end, futures studies help policymakers and planners to design appropriate development programs by establishing communication, coordination, and collaboration between organizations and institutions. This research is applied in terms of practical purpose and in terms of the nature and method of descriptive-analytical research and in terms of exploratory scenario modelling. Data were collected through documentary and field methods. In the field method, the researcher-made questionnaire was provided to the experts in the form of a mutual matrix for scoring factors. 30 experts were selected by Delphi method. The distribution of questionnaires was also unlikely. Mick McMurphy software was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the system of Tehran's urban area is in an unstable state. Also, the ten driving forces, including the ideologies of the ruling ideology, integrated management, expanding the infrastructure of information and communication technology, e-commerce, expanding economic competitiveness, economic branding, electronic management system, political transparency, facilitating the entry of multinational corporations, expanding urban diplomacy as drivers Influential ones were extracted in the development of Tehran's urban area. Finally, the scenarios facing the development of Tehran's urban area showed that there are eight scenarios, the first scenario with the highest probability of occurrence has 9 pessimistic and one pessimistic.
Ph.d Khalaf Anafjeh, Email: Moosa_ka@pnu.ac.ir, Ph.d Masoud Safaipour, Ph.d Abdulnabi Sharifi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
This paper tries to equip the 5 strategic drivers of the urban poverty system in the target areas of the research wich have the ability to management,manipulate and trace their effects through the regeneration process with poverty reduction policies in order to improve the state of the system in the mentioned arias.considering the basic necessity of economy–based organization of space, the aim of this paper is to regeneration and reform of structures of urban poverty in the target neighborhoods with a future studies approach.the type of research is applicable and its investigation method is descriptive-analytical based on newest future studies approach,normative in nature.after preparing the balance analysis of the possible states (uncertainty scenarios),extracting the qualitative judgments of 30 experts about the mutual influence of network relations through Delphi survey and algoritmic analysis of data using cib method in the scenario wizard software become possible.consideringthe size of the matrix and its demensions of (15*15) scenario wizard software analyzed the number of 3657 combined scenarios based on the data entered in the questionnaire and the number of 5 strong or probable scenarios,14 scenarios with high compatibility(belivable scenarios) and they reported 28 weack scenarios (possible scenarios) that finally,after verification and validation by experts,four scenarios were descriptively named with the title of m-a,m-sh,h-ha,z.s-j.in the end by using the thematic macro -rends that are introduced as technical tools of future –based economic intervantions in the regeneration process.for each driver,poverty reduction policies were formulated and proposed in the form of thematic measures based on desirable scenarios to reform urban poverty structures.
Zahra Hejazizadeh, Parisa Sadat Ashofteh, Ebrahim Fatahi, Zahra Gholampour,
Volume 15, Issue 38 (4-2015)
Abstract
Abstract
In this study, the predicted monthly temperature and rainfall data from HadCM3 model (base period, ۱۹۷۲-۲۰۰۱) and next period (۲۰۱۱-۲۰۴۰) under A2emission scenario were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on runoff variations in the Kor river basin. HadCM3 model output was downscaled based on a temporal downscaling approach (Change Factor) and spatial downscaling approach (Proportional) for the basin. The time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were produced in future period. The results showed that temperature and rainfall will increase and decrease in the future period relative to the base period, respectively. Then, the calibrated IHACRES model was used to model rainfall-runoff relationships in the Kor river basin. Then, the downscaled monthly temperature and rainfall time series in next period were employed to rainfall-runoff model and the monthly runoff time series were simulated for period ۲۰۱۱- ۲۰۴۰. The comparison of future period runoff relative to observed period showed that the annual runoff in the basin for period ۲۰۱۱-۲۰۴۰ will decrease about ۹٫۴۳% with respect to base period.
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Volume 17, Issue 47 (12-2017)
Abstract
The purpose of this research is the simulation of the maize function to scenario of climate change to the present and future. So to survey the region climate, daily data, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and radiation have been utilized during the period of (1987-2016). In order to simulating of climate in future, firstly the date of IPCM4 model under scenario and 30’s and 50’s with downscaling LARS-WG model. Before the simulation yield of maize, APSIM model was evaluated and validated. To calculate the maize yield the output of LARS model, plant date and were utilized as the cropping input model of APSIM. By variance analysis maize yield was compared in present and future. The results showed that the APSIM model validation can simulate acceptable accuracy and climate parameters change effect on the yield rate of maize. And on the basis of the highest yield in Fasa the lowest in the city Abade in base line. In future under different scenarios of climate change, maze grain yield in Fars province except Abade, other cities are decreasing than base line.
Farzaneh Sasanpour, , ,
Volume 17, Issue 47 (12-2017)
Abstract
Urbanization bubble is a new concept in urban planning issues for examining sustainability at various levels of social, economic, environmental, and management. So far, no common definition provided for urbanization bubble that indicate a lack of research in this field. This research aimed at assessing futures studies of urbanization bubble in Tehran metropolitan with focus on scenario planning. Research method in term of purpose is applied and in term of method is exploratory descriptive analytic one. Required data gathered through field study and document review. In field studies, Delphi technique performed in the form of a group of 30 people. For data analyzing, cross impact analyzes used in MICMAC software. Results indicate that 56 factors identified as key factors in five institutional, managerial, economic, social and environmental dimensions affecting future condition of urbanization bubble. Then, based on experts’ comments, 25 agents identified. Dispersion of the variables indicates the instability of Tehran's metropolitan system. Five categories of influential, dual, regulatory, influential and independent factors identified. Final scores and ranking of key factors carried out and finally, three scenarios presented for the future status of urbanization bubble in Tehran metropolitan.
Hasan Zolfaghari, Jafar Masoompourv Samakosh, Shabnam Chahvari,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is predicting climate changes and investigating the effect of probable climate change on the growing degree-days in the northwest of Iran. For this purpose the climatic data of seven synoptic stations during a 25 years period (1985-2009) was collected including Oroomieh, Tabriz, Zanjan, Sanandaj, Ghazvin, Kermanshah, and Hamedan were used as the base period and thus temperature variations periods (2030-2011 and 2065-2046) through HadCM3 model was simulated. For the little power of temporal and spatial distinction of this model, its outputs were downscaled using LARS-WG software and presented under Emission Scenarios including A1B (moderate scenario), A2 (maximum or pessimistic scenario), and B1 (minimum or optimistic scenario). Calibration, verification and Performance Model with the rate of the adaption of observed data and the simulated measures through statistics , RMSE and MAE were analyzed. Finally, using the simulated temperature growing degree-day was calculated and compared under 4 Base temperature including 0°,5°,10°, and 15° centigrade in the basic span (1985-2009) and future span (2011-2030 and 2046-2065). The results of simulation show that temperature change in north-west areas under all three A1B, A2, and B1 scenario are increasing in the future, but the differences among these three scenarios in each period is inconsiderable. In total the most temperature increasing was detected as 0/7 centigrade in A2 scenario for 2011-2030 period and 2/3 centigrade under A1B scenario for 2046-2065 period. Generally with the temperature increasing, the amounts of growing degree-day without exception increases in review periods and under the four Base temperature. Under studied scenarios, the Bases temperature of 0° centigrade had the most and 15° centigrade had the least impressibility from climate changes, so that the most increasing in calculated degree-day measures under 0° and 15° centigrade bases in the first period to the basic scenario (1985-2009) respectively was simulated as 207/4 and 120/6 degree-day under A2 scenario and for the second period to the 752/5 and 463/5 degree-day under A1B scenario.
Nazli Pakro, Arash Saghafi Asl,
Volume 20, Issue 57 (6-2020)
Abstract
The purpose of this research was Historical Urban Texture Study based on the Experiences of Intervention of Birjand in accordance with the historic city of Pennsylvania. Therefore, in this study, we had uses of library study. In this research, according to the Delphi method, three stages of field survey were prepared. The first stage of open field study is considered to be all effective factors. The second stage of the field survey is weighted and the third stage with appropriate and desirable strategic scenarios for the development of the historical texture and reduction and redevelopment of the presentation. In this research, The data were analyzed using descriptive and then inferential statistics using SPSS 21, MICAC and MICAC software, as well as for mapping the city and the study area using the ARC GIS Geographic Information System (GIS). The results showed that the historical context of Birjand is in good condition in terms of citizens' access to urban uses (educational, cultural, recreational, green spaces and sports) which this matter was same adaptive with Pennsylvania. According to the results of private sector investment, people's participation in the creation of traditional mechanisms has a great influence on the preservation of historical works, and this should be taken into account in preserving historical works. Despite the problems in the neighborhood, citizens are happy with the neighborhood, which can increase satisfaction by fixing problems and organizing the textures. According to the results of the cross-correlation matrix in the MIC-Mac software, among the 28 key factors identified, 10 factors of citizens' financial ability, municipality performance, specific rules and regulations for exhausted and historic textures, literacy rates, population density, price Land, detailed design criteria, cultural convergence with adjacent tissues, have a direct and indirect effect on regeneration. The scenario of the fundamental movement to revive Birjand's historic texture in line with the historic city of Pennsylvania is the best scenario, and the revival of Birjand's historic texture is best achieved in this scenario, in line with the historic Pennsylvania city.
Mahdi Mohammadi,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
This paper focuses on convergence with the measures and activities of the global assemblies in order to promote the resilience of cities against earthquakes and to pay attention to their physical- skeletal development process, to analyze the resilience of the city of Zanjan and to design scenarios against the earthquake hazard. The criteria used in order of priority and importance include: type of structure, building quality, building life, number of floors, occupancy level, enclosure coefficient, building density, grading, distance from the fault, number of units in the building, user adaptability, slope and facade Building, Which are applied in the three earthquake resilience scenarios after analytical hierarchy analysis (AHP) based on (relation No. 1).
According to the maps drawn from the scenarios, the resiliency rate in the central and southern parts of the city was weak and very weak and as far as we move north, west, and east, we increase the amount of physical resilience of the area. However, no resonance images in the scenario maps show any area with a very resilient domain. As in Ramallah scenarios 7 and 8, the resilience is in a non-resilient and very weak domain. The analysis shows that, according to the maps in any of the areas, there is no stability in the resilience That is, no area in the assessment of all criteria is resilient.
Mr. Farshid Azizkhani, Professor Mohammad Rahim Eivazi, Dr. Majid Mokhtarianpour, Dr. Muhammad Reza Esmaili Givi,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
Geographical studies on food categorized in five scales; global and transnational, national and regional, urban, rural and agricultural, domestic scales of food consumption and the individual as a consumer. Based on this categorization, the present study is placed within urban and domestic scales. By accepting that population of Tehran metropolis will definitely increase in future and regarding that based on systematic approach and limits to grow theory (Meadows, Randers, & Meadows, 2004), no growth in the world will continue forever. We must consider factors that limit the growth of Tehran, besides factors provoke development. One of the limiting factors is the natural and geographical potential of Tehran metropolis. For this research among qualitative methods in futures studies, we chose the scenario, because this method "make the future more real for decision makers to force new thinking and decisions". In the formulation of food consumption scenarios, due to the diversity of stakeholders, the challenges and the types of issues and ambiguities, the approach of the Global Business Network (GBN) was chosen. To analyze the key factors and identifying the key variables the structural analysis method and MickMac software was used. Based on two key variables, technology, and consumer responsibility, four scenarios were created, these are four scenarios: Smart eating scenario, McDonaldization of Society scenario, Food Geography scenario, and Community Eating scenario. In this study, four alternative food futures have been presented for Tehran. In these scenarios, both desirable and undesirable futures are clearly and accurately depicted. The geography of food scenario due to the neglect of the environmental capacities and natural and geographic potentials is the most unsustainable scenario for the future of Tehran. Without scenarios, thinking about the futures of food in Tehran is very difficult and even impossible. These scenarios can help us take into account possible futures in today's decisions. Although this article does not predict a specific future for food in Tehran, But, given the recognition and sensitivity of the events, it can be very useful for long-term decisions.
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Dr Hossein Nazmfar, Miss Ameneh Alibakhshi,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
Tourism is one of the most important means of development in the world. Many countries in the world pay special attention to tourism as an effective tool for their political, cultural and economic development in their country's policies and programs. The present study was carried out in order to plan tourism in Ardebil province based on a futuristic study method. The present research is applied in a practical way as a combination of documentary and survey methods based on a futuristic approach. The research area of Ardabil province and the statistical population is 45 tourism experts, urban and regional planning and executive agencies of the province. Delphi method, cross-effects matrix (Wizard scenario software) and Wizard scenario software were used to analyze the data. Based on the findings of the Delphi method and environmental scanning, 88 factors were identified as influential factors in the development of tourism in Ardebil. In the second step, using the Micmac method, 14 key Factors, including the comprehensive tourism plan, the media, stimulus policies, macro policies of the state, distribution of facilities, infrastructure, recreational centers, increased private incentive to invest in the region, the region's susceptibility to Investment in tourism, planning, security facilities, budget, the existence of hot and mineral water springs, improvement of information systems, such as site and blog, have been identified as key to the development of Ardebil province. In the third step, based on key factors, believable futures were explained using the Wizard scenario method, which ultimately resulted in three strong, weak and believable scenarios. In this scenario, believable scenarios are due to the intermediate between scenarios Strong and weak, have been based on analysis. Accordingly, there are three scenarios named "Golden scenario", " believable scenario" and "Disaster scenario" for the future of tourism in Ardebil province.
Dr Bromand Salahi, Vahid Safarian Zangir,
Volume 23, Issue 68 (3-2023)
Abstract
Global warming and temperature rise will have many effects on different sectors, including agriculture, the warming of the earth will increase the rate of evaporation, and consequently the increase in the demand for agricultural products will increase. In this study, in order to monitor the effect of global warming on Mughan Plain wheat, using the LARS-WG model as a relatively inexpensive and accurate instrument for producing climate multi-yearly climate change scenarios On a daily basis, In Ardabil province, Germi Station was selected as the representative of the three stations in the study area due to the data in the appropriate statistical period. In the present study, to monitor the effect of global warming on precipitation fluctuations, as well as in the production and cultivation of wheat crop in Moghan plain, the LARS-WG model and the HADCM3 climate model output under A1B scenario as well as climate data (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and Daily Sunshine) The Germys station was used over a 14 year period (2004-2007).The results of the research show that by comparing the monthly mean of these parameters, this result was obtained that at confidence level 1 there is not a significant difference between the simulation data from the model and observational data in the base period and the mean The climatic parameters of the data obtained from the model and the actual data are similar and there is a high correlation between them. Finally, by comparing observational monthly meanings and modeling of climatic elements of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures and sunshine were shown using statistical parameters RMSE, MAE, NA and R2 The model (LARS-WG5) is used to accurately simulate daily data in the parameters of the Mughan Plain, Ardebil province. The results of this study showed that the average decrease in yield of irrigated wheat and the decrease of its production in the study area could be due to the decrease of precipitation and the increase of the regional temperature which is due to global warming.
Hadi Nagibi, Adel Sherizadeh,
Volume 23, Issue 70 (9-2023)
Abstract
Nowadays, tourism, as one of the key components, has a special role in developing societies and countries. Here, urban tourism - as a significant parts of the tourism industry - has a special place in improving the economic and cultural development of cities and has turned into one of the most important, exchange yielding, and income creating industries. Nevertheless, the development of this industry in cities faces some challenges and problems. This calls for a new and integrated planning to take advantage of opportunities and face the challenges ahead. Future studies can take very effective steps in planning for the development of urban tourism and mapping out the desired future of tourism, and by presenting proper solutions, it can stop the emergence of challenges and the realization of an undesirable future. This study was working towards in line with this purpose. In the present study, using Delphi technique, 36 factors were identified as the primary factors affecting the future of the development of urban tourism in Khoy. The structural analysis method was used with the help of MicMac software to extract key factors, where 12 factors were selected as key factors. Then, the probable situations were defined for each key factor. In the next step, to measure the effectiveness of the occurrence of the status of each of the factors on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other factors, a 33 × 33 matrix was designed and given to the experts. Finally, to compile probabilistic scenarios and to identify desirable scenarios, the data for this matrix were introduced into the scenario software. ScenarioWizard software reported 1406 poor scenarios, 4 strong scenarios and 13 credible scenarios by performing the needed analyses. Examining the credible scenarios showed a relative ruling of static, critical and undesirable situations over the desirable and ideal situations. Apart from the first scenario with desirable and progressive features, the rest of the scenarios do not show a desirable future in minds for the development of tourism in Khoy.
Mr Jaefar Derakhshi, Dr Behroz Sobhani, Dr Saeed Jahanbakhsh,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract
In this study, the prediction of precipitation and temperature values using the general atmospheric circulation models during 1964-2005 is investigated. Climatic data including daily values of total precipitation and mean temperature were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. Considering the climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the coming period 2010-2100 were evaluated under the canESM2 climate change model of Aharchai Basin. Due to the low accuracy of the general circulation models, the SDSM4.2 miniaturization model was used and the changes in precipitation and mean temperature parameters were simulated for future time periods. In this study, to calibrate the SDSM model, among the 26 large scale climate parameters (NCEP), on average, 3 parameters have the highest correlation with the mean temperature and 5 parameters have the highest correlation with the average precipitation in the Aharchai Basin. The results of climatic parameters prediction showed that simulation of climatic parameters mean temperature was performed with higher accuracy than mean precipitation values. The reason is that the precipitation data are not normal and unconditional. The results show that the basin temperature averaged more during the period 2070-2099 under the scenario RCP8.5 than the observations period of 1964-2005 and the basin precipitation during the period 2070-2099 under the scenario RCP2.6 showed the highest increase in the entire study period.
