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In this study, the Frequency and the spell of rainy days was analyzed in Lake Uremia Basin using Markov chain model. For this purpose, the daily precipitation data of 7 synoptic stations in Lake Uremia basin were used for the period 1995- 2014. The daily precipitation data at each station were classified into the wet and dry state and the fitness of first order Markov chain on data series was examined using Chi-square test at a significance level of 0.01 and was approved. After computing transition probability matrix, the persistent probability, average spell of dry days and rainy days and weather cycle was calculated. By calculating the frequency of 1-10 rainy, the spell of this periods and 2-5-days return period were calculated. The results show that in this study period the average of rainy days is 25% and the probability of P_dd is more than other states (P_ww ، P_dw و P_wd). The average spell of rainy days in the study area was estimated at about two days. Generally, in all stations the persistent probability of wet state is more than rainy state. Estimation of frequency and spell of rainy days and 2-5-days return period show that with increasing duration, the frequency of rainy days decreases. Also with increasing duration of rainy days, their spell is reduces and return period increases.

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Quality of life is one of the important issues that was first brought to the attention of scholars by the extensive development of technology and industrialization process in the Western countries, and it is increasingly being studied in this field, and this is important due to the increasing increase in quality of life studies in public policy monitoring. Quality of life can be used as a powerful tool for monitoring community development planning. The existence of spatial and spatial inequalities in the city has caused many problems, including the weakness of resources, inappropriate housing, the problems and damage caused by social inequalities, and undermined the quality of life. In this research, that of terms methodological, descriptive-analytic and in terms of purpose, it is functional used the statistics blocks of Urmia, in the census of 1395, and remote sensing data in combination with GIS have been to understand the quality of life in the 5 regions of Urmia. The criteria defined in this research are in 4 sections: social (including 9 sub-criteria), access to public services (5 sub-criteria), physical (4 sub-criteria), natural (4 sub-criteria), which are based on decision analysis Multi-criteria and integration of layers in the GIS environment. Weights obtained for social dimensions, access to public, natural and physical services derived from network analysis model  are respectively 0.506, 0.323, 0.116 and 0.055. The results show that as far as the southwest is moving along the northeastern part of the city, blocks that have a better quality of life are rising.  In the urban regions of the region 2, quality of life is more favorable than other urban regions. The results of such studies can help urban planners to better understand and prioritize urban issues as a dynamic environment.

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Increasing urbanization today and the lack of integrated urban management have led to inadequate planning in cities. In this regard, the local councils, as the most prominent local institutions and the most important decentralization manifestations, symbolize the serious presence of the people to determine their own fate, if they are institutionalized in the governance structure as coordinators of the executive agencies. In these cities, they can play a valuable role in the social security of cities. The present study was conducted using descriptive-analytical approach and field method. In this study 354 people were selected using Cochran model. Next, based on the results of the questionnaire, the results were analyzed using SPSS software. Conclusions: Based on the Friedman test, among the research items, the second item is "Social Security Development", and the first item is "Economic Security Development". Among the items, the second item (Social Security) with 2.90 points out that the role of local councils in social security development is higher than other dimensions and the first item with 1.98 points of economic security development comes in last. has taken. Also, the one-sample t-test showed that the significance level of the test is less than (0.05) and at 95% confidence level there is a positive significant difference between the dimensions of council functions and the dimensions of sustainable urban security development.

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Analysis of land use change in Nazlou district of Urmia in the 2005-2018 time series
Abstract Population growth, increased prosperity, the spread of technology, and the improper use of land have in recent decades imposed many changes on land. Nazlou district in Urmia city has been exposed to many changes due to its favorable natural conditions, location in the development paths of Urmia-Cir and Urmia-Bazargan, establishment of numerous industrial estates and so on. So planning to manage these changes requires studying land use changes. The purpose of this study was to detect land use changes in Nazlou district in Urmia city using Landsat TM and OLI satellite images by Object Oriented Classification. Also, two methods of change detection and change intensity index in land use change monitoring were used to investigate the severity and trend of land use changes. This study was descriptive and analytical and data collection was done by documentary method. The survey showed that during the study period (2005-2018) of the total area of ​​77498.37 hectares, the total area under study was approximately 25981.56 ha (33.52%). The highest level of change in 2005 relates to the level of the horticulture, with its downward trend in 2018. In contrast, changes in rangeland and dryland land use have an increasing trend, respectively.
 

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This article was written with the aim of revealing land use changes in Urmia city using remote sensing of Landsat satellite images for 4 periods of 8 years between 1990 and 2019. For this purpose, two categories of data will be used in this research. The first category includes data obtained from satellite images and the second category includes ground data taken from Urmia ground station, which includes temperature and other parameters used in this research. The results showed that urban land use in Urmia city has faced significant changes during the statistical period of 30 years. This user has had an increasing trend during all the studied periods, so that during the study period, it has faced a 5-fold increase. Swampy areas and sludge fields east of Lake Urmia have undergone a significant decline during 1990-2019 and has reached less than 6,000 hectares. The citychr('39')s barren lands, which cover a small percentage of the citychr('39')s area, have been declining over the 30-year period under review. The use of gardens has increased during all periods, so that in 2019, its area has reached more than 20,000 hectares. The use of irrigated agriculture has increased during all the studied periods and its area has reached more than 80,000 hectares by 2019. The area of ​​rainfed agricultural lands, after the rangelands, is the widest land use in Urmia, but with a relatively gentle slope has a decreasing trend. Water areas have also been declining, so that in 2019, it has decreased by about 26% compared to 2012. Rangelands, which is the largest land cover in Urmia city, has gone through three different processes during the study period. From 1990 to 1998, these lands did not change significantly, but from 1998 to 2005, the increasing trend and in 2019, with a 10% decrease compared to 2012, reached its lowest area during the statistical period under study, ie less than 20,000 hectares.

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Evidence suggests that climate change will create uncertain regional agricultural production stability in the coming decades. This research investigated the impact of climate change on hydrology and sugar beet yield as one of the main crops in the Urmia lake basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To address this, a baseline SWAT model was setup for 1986-2014. Afterward, the output was calibrated (1989-2004) and validated (2005-2014) in the SWAT-CUP software using the SUFI2 algorithm to simulate streamflow of 23 gauging stations and crop yield. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.43 and 0.53 for calibration and validation periods, sequentially. The Percent Bias was 45% and 16% for calibration and validation periods, respectively. As well as the agreement indices of 0.71 and the little Percent Bias (-6% to 10%) for crop production, verified the model's efficiency. The next step was downscaling and bias-correction of the precipitation and temperature data received from 3 climate models, namely GFDL, HadGEM2, and IPSL under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using CCT program. Then, the downscaled data were fed to SWAT, and Finally, hydrological fluxes and sugar beet yield were estimated for 2021-2050. Despite a dispersion of precipitation changes ranging from -12% to +35% in most scenarios, results highlight the pivotal role that the warmer temperature (+2.7°C) increases evaporation, resulting in sharpened pressure on water resources and runoff, especially, at the beginning of crop growth season. Finally, the negative impacts on crop productivity (-45%) is not unexpected. This means that sugar beet may suffer from climate change impacts, and the production of this plant will change over the next period in this region.

Keywords: Climate Change, Sugar Beet, Urmia Lake Basin, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT.

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The continuous and active presence of disciplinary centers has an important role in ensuring security and peace in cities.Therefore the fair and efficient distribution of law enforcement centers in urban areas is an important factor in meeting this basic need.Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the service of police stations on vulnerable areas of Urmia.The descriptive-analytical research method used in this study is applied.The results of the study show that the vulnerability zoning of the city of Urmia is in four categories from very high to very low. About 68 km2 of the whole area of the city is known to be highly vulnerable.Most of the northern (informal settlements of Region 2) and central (old districts of four region) settlements of Urmia are the most vulnerable areas due to the high density of population and housing,with most of the politically sensitive, commercial and administrative offices in these areas.The results of the network analysis based on standard time (12 minutes) indicate that the 28.9% (24 km2) of the Urmia Vulnerable Areas was not covered by the police stations.Within 12 minutes the police stations of Urmia city have quick access to 55 km2 of about 75 km2 area with high vulnerability and about 20 km2 of this area also without timely access. In terms of the police stations access to low vulnerability areas,the results also show that from about 15 km2 of these areas to 3 km2 have quick access, indicates that there is no quick access to these 12 km2