Showing 14 results for Hazard
Abdolali Torabi, Sadroddin Motavlli, Gholamreza Janbaz Ghobadi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Natural disasters, which are part of the process of human life and their number and diversity are increasing every day, are a major challenge to achieve sustainable development of human societies. Hence, the prevailing view of focusing solely on reducing vulnerability to increasing resilience to disasters has shifted. The purpose of this study is to explain the components of urban resilience against natural hazards with emphasis on floods in Behshahr. The research method in this research is descriptive-analytical and in addition to documents and library studies, a questionnaire was used to collect information. The statistical population of the present study includes two groups of citizens living in the neighborhoods around the four rivers of Behshahr. After collecting field information that was completed using a questionnaire tool, from SPSS, MINITAB and PLS software and using multi-criteria decision making (SAW) methods to investigate the situation and explain the components of urban resilience in Against natural hazards such as floods and GIS software was used to zoning areas based on flood resilience. The results show that among the dimensions of resilience, the economic dimension has the highest weight and is in the first place and the physical, infrastructure and environmental dimension has the lowest weight and is in the last place. Neighborhoods around the rivers of Behshahr city are ranked based on flood resistance status, which shows that Shahed neighborhood is in the first place and Borzoo neighborhood is in the last place.
Ph.d Elnaz Piroozi, Ph.d Sayyad Asghari Saraskanrood, Ph.d Batool Zeinali,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Landslides are among the most common and destructive natural hazards that change the shape of the earth's surface, and reviewing the damages caused by landslides, the need to investigate the factors influencing the occurrence of this phenomenon and predict its occurrence. proves that Khalkhal City, due to its special geological, climatic, and geomorphological characteristics and human activities, has been affected by the risk of landslides for a long time. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue; The purpose of this research is to produce a landslide risk map in this city. In this regard, first, the distribution map of landslides and influencing variables, including; DEM, slope, aspect, land use, lithology, distance from fault, distance from river, distance from road, and rainfall were provided. Next, after the fuzzy membership and determining the weight values of each factor using the CRITIC method, the landslide susceptibility map was prepared using the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making method. The results of the study showed, respectively; that The factors of slope, land use, and lithology with weight coefficients of 0.148, 0.139, and 0.132 have the greatest influence on the occurrence of landslides in the region. According to the results of the research, respectively; 707.14 and 512.87 square kilometers of the area of the city are in high-risk and very high-risk categories, and these areas are areas that need management work and the implementation of protection projects. Also, considering the use of the ROC curve method the area under the curve (0.89), and the correlation of 0.83% between the final map obtained from the research and the distribution of sliding surfaces, the accuracy of the MARCOS method in identifying and zoning prone areas The risk of landslides in Khalkhal city is great.
Yousouf Ghavidel Rahimi, Manochehr Farajzadeh Asl, Solmaz Motalebizad,
Volume 16, Issue 40 (3-2016)
Abstract
This study tries to identify, classify, and analyze synoptic cold wave in North West region of Iran. This study applies standardized (z scores) index of Minimum Temperature in the period of 1951-2010.as such cold waves were classified based on the intensity of occurance. Out of occured cold wave in North West of the coldest identified wave pertaingt each class for synoptic analyzes were selected. This study suggests that the prevailing pressure pattern during the relevant wave indicates high pressure over the earth surface as well as deep trough in upper layer. From the continuing cold standpoint, the role of changing position from pavallel wind in to meridional corresponel to blocking is very offective. Blocking in turn leads to reduction in speed of cold air masses which are originating from higher latitude. They were assouclated with cold waves. More precipitation as so ciated with higher latitude as well as low speed flows will lead to strong and continious waves.
Ali Nasiri,
Volume 16, Issue 40 (3-2016)
Abstract
Today, the resiliency of the human centers, especially urban centers against the natural hazards such as earthquakes, is one of the main challenges in the targeted management of urban. One of the effective strategies in the control, containment and prevention of risks from earthquakes is zoning of urban areas in terms of vulnerability. In this regard, the purpose of this study was to determine the zoning and seismic active zones in the urban area of Urmia city. The seismic – tectonic situation and recorded seismic data surveyed in the current study. findings showed that there were seismic active zones in the Uremia city area. The seismic effects and geo-tectonic results Verified, so the results marked that local geology condition would be effective in earth motion. This research investigated the local geology features especially fault, geo units and seismic data in zoning of seismic risk. Many methods are proposed by different researchers. In this study the SABTA (1987) method has been used for estimating seismic risk by using most important parameters such as seismic, fault and geology data. The obtained results showed that the P.G.A measure variation was from 0.035 to 0.33 which indicated the existence of seismic activity in the study area.
Professor Ghasem Azizi, , Leyla Sharifi,
Volume 17, Issue 47 (12-2017)
Abstract
Thunderstorms are major climatic events due to the significant effects and catastrophic consequences on humans and the natural environment. The researches have shown that the elevation and latitude factors are two variables that can affect the occurrence of this phenomenon. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to investigate the spatial analysis of the effects of lightning and its effects on the components such as elevation and geographic extent in Iran. Apart from this fact, firstly, the monthly data of thunderstorms occurrence in 118 synoptic stations of Iran, from 1991 to 2010 on a basis from the country's meteorological organization were obtained and GIS software was produced by the annual and seasonal maps of Iran. Then, for the spatial analysis of this climatic phenomenon, the method of landing statistics of the Kriging (Universal) method was to examine its seasonal and annual status. In order to better understand the effect of Thunder hurricanes from altitude and latitude using Curve Expert software, seasonal and annual charts, along with the correlation of each production, were analyzed. The results show that the highest annual thunderstorms occur in the northwest of Iran, and the least amount is consistent with the central and eastern parts of the country. In addition, according to seasonal analysis, although the station has the highest rate at 800 to 1,300 meters, the maximum occurrence of this phenomenon varies from 0 to 2200 meters in different seasons of the stations. The overall result shows that the factor of height is slightly correlated with the occurrence of the Thunder storm phenomenon and the highest correlation is due to the latitude factor.
Yousef Ghavidel Rahimi, Manouchehr Farajzadeh, Esmaeel Lashani Zand,
Volume 18, Issue 51 (6-2018)
Abstract
In this study, the changes in the Khorramabad storm in the period of 1952 to 2015 have been investigated. For this purpose, data from meteorological codes 06 and 07 were received from the Meteorological Organization of the country, and after identifying the days of winding with dust storms and calculating their monthly frequency, monthly, seasonal and annual time series were analyzed. In this study, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, linear and polynomial trend analysis, and nonparametric Mann-Kendal test were used to study the frequency variation of dust storms in Khorramabad station. The results of the research showed that the monthly frequency of dust storms in Khorramabad station in the middle of May, July and June is May and July, respectively, and from May to July (May to July), the frequency of storms in the dust and dust Khoramabad station is added that this issue is not related to the district heating and dry season. In the seasonal season other than the autumn, which is not frequent with frequent dust storms, in the rest of the seasons, especially in spring and summer, the seasonal concentration of dust storms in Khoramabad has been intensified. The analysis of the trend of time variation in the occurrence of dust storms in Khorramabad station showed that in most of the months of the year and in the three seasons of spring, summer and autumn, as well as in the annual period, there was a significant change in the frequency of dust storms in Khorramabad station. It is increasing with a relatively steep slope, indicating that in the future, the frequency of dust storms in Khorramabad station will be increased.
Dr Batool Zeinali, Sima Khalili, Saideh Eiyni,
Volume 19, Issue 53 (6-2019)
Abstract
The aim of current research is atmospheric hazards climate zoning in Iran Northwest. So meteorological organization data were used in cases such as mean temperature , minimum temperature , maximum temperature, precipitation in monthly and daily scale for 13 synoptic stations in range of East Azerbaijan province, West Azerbaijan province) and Ardebil province during 26 years. (1990-2015) in this research , it was investigated 10 main atmospheric hazards such as famine or drought , hailstone,, heavy snow , thunder storm, severe precipitation, margin precipitation , blizzard , fogging , dust storm in range of Northwest bound. Then happening frequency maps were prepared with separating form for hazards by using Geographic information system. (GIS) Also spatial zoning maps were prepared for every class. Finally by combining all of hazards investigation; it was prepared Northwest region atmospheric hazards extensive map. Results show that, East, Southeast, center and West parts in Northwest region are located among most hazard zones based on happening frequency. But Northeast parts and zones have the least hazards. Also results express that blizzard and dust storm are main atmospheric hazards at Northwest regionThe highest hazard frequency in Northwest region relate to blizzard with 4148 hazards during 1990-2015 study period. The highest blizzard frequency in Ahar station is observed with 514 hazards. The second hazard in Northwest relate to dust phenomenon with 1948 cases. The highest frequency of mentioned case was observed in Maragheh station with 410 hazards. The third case in Northwest relate to thunder storm phenomenon with 1773 hazards. The sixth case relate to icing phenomenon with 1315 hazards meaning. The highest icing frequency is observed in Khalkhal station with 144 hazards. The seventh case relate to hailstone phenomenon at Northwest with 341 hazards. The highest of hailstone frequency is observed in Maragheh station with 56 hazards. The eighth case relate to fogging phenomenon with 333 hazards. The highest of fogging is observe in Ahar station with 135 hazards. The ninth case relate to famine or drought phenomenon at Northwest with 168 hazards. The highest of famine or drought frequency is observed in Urmia and Ardebil stations with 16 hazards totally. The highest margin precipitation is observed in Parsabad station with 19 hazards. The lowest frequency of margin precipitation relate to Makou and Khalkhal stations with 4 hazards totally.
Mr. Alireza Nojoumi, , ,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
Quite a lot of people are employed in gas production and refining industry in IRAN. In case of weakness or lack of having an effective management, the associated companies will impose heavy damage to the country. In this regard, to achieve consistency and safety in IRAN, ascendancy of management in these companies is one of the main and effective attempts. In order to manage the crisis of technological hazards in south pars gas complex, this study presents a strategic model. To this end, firstly, a review of all research and previous studies is done. The statistical population of this study is 35 persons including managers, safety experts, HSE, and Passive Defense experts. Effective factors on technological hazards management is defined as: leadership and management, human resource, organizational culture, organization agility, organization systems, local infrastructures, production continuity and, continuum inspection is determined through an exhaustive investigation. Subsequently, a questionnaire using Delphi technique is prepared and conducted over the statistical population. The obtained data was analyzed with SPSS and AMOS software, and the results showed that among the other factors, human resource has more considerable effect on crisis management.
Mahsa Asadi Aziz Abadi, Keramat Alah Ziari, Mohsen Vatan Khahi,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
A city is a vibrant, dynamic, and evolving phenomenon that grows and spreads over time and space, and is exhausted and degraded.It also faces crises such as natural hazards and artifacts, resulting from human relationships and physical elements, on the one hand, and social, economic, cultural, geographical, political, and historical conditions on the other. The deteriorated urban fabric, which has physical, functional and operational deterioration, are resistant to the above-mentioned crises and has low vulnerability. Therefore, the need of intervening in these fabrics is crucial for balancing, coordinating the foundations of social life, and improving the urban structure. In this regard, in this research, priority is given to the dimension of resilient deteriorated urban fabric based on a disaster resilience of place model which is one of the models of urban resilience measurement. This research is a descriptive-analytical according to method and is developmental-applied research in terms of the purpose. Also, Expert Choice software and AHP model are used to analyze the collected data by using a questionnaire. The results of the research indicate that, in three macro areas of Karaj, Hesarak and Mehrshahr, the physical-environmental resilience dimension has the highest weight and organizational-institutional resilience has the least weight. Overall, regarding prioritization of resilience dimensions, criteria and indicators, an increasing per capita of vital use in study areas, changing the economic structure of residents, as well as increasing the skill and coherence of citizens to deal with hazards and crises are important.
Mrs Sara Behvandi, Dr Mohammad Reza Zandmoghadam, Dr Abbas Arghan, Dr Zeinab Kekehabadi,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
Today, the huge economic damage of natural hazards, especially of the micro-organisms, to human societies has led the concept of economic sustainability to mitigate the effects of crises to become an important area in crisis management. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of environmental hazards (effluents) on Ahwaz economy. This research can be considered as a type of applied-development research, and is a descriptive-analytical study in a correlation manner. The population of the study consisted of all residents of Ahwaz, in 1395, there were no more than 1302000 people. The sample size was 384, based on the Cochran formula, and randomly available. To investigate the data, the structural equation path analysis was used in Amos18 software. The results indicated that the microprocesses had an effect on the economy of Ahwaz with a coefficient of 0.31 and a significant level of 0.002. Also, the effect of fiery gradients was 0.73, and the significance level of 0.000 on the tax, the microguns, with the coefficient of influence 0.45 and the significance of 0.000 per facility, the effects of the micrographs with the coefficient of 0.55, and the significance of 0.000 on the housing, With a coefficient of influence of 0.17 and a significant amount of 0.008 on transportation. Accordingly, microblogging has the most impact on finance with a coefficient of 0.73, and transportation with a coefficient of influence of 0.17 has had the least effect.
Mr Mozaffar Mohamadkhani, Dr Zeynab Karke Abadi, Abbas Arghan,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
The structure of urban resilience consists of four dimensions: social, economic, institutional and physical. In the desired situation, a resilient city has a strong local society with a dynamic and sustainable economy that is governed institutionally and institutionally in a participatory manner. As a result of these super-physical factors, the city is formed in a cohesive manner and no withering is observed at any point. The purpose of this study is to assess the resilience and stability of Semnan in the face of natural hazards (earthquake). The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical and its statistics and information have been obtained using a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study was citizens living in Semnan city. Using Cochranchr('39')s formula, a sample of 384 people was selected from them by random sampling method. To assess the validity (validity), using face validity, the opinions of related people were examined and its reliability was assessed using Cronbachchr('39')s test in the SPSS software environment equal to / 863. It was found to indicate high coordination and reliability of the data. In data analysis, descriptive and inferential statistical tests were used in Spss software. percentage; At the level of inferential statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and sample titech test as well as neural network model were used to examine the relationship between variables. Findings showed that the socio-cultural dimension with an average rank of 2.59 and the physical dimension with an average rank of 3.05 and the economic dimension with an average rank of 2.17 and finally the institutional-organizational dimension with an average rank of 2.56 show the current situation of resilience in Semnan.
Parichehr Mesri Alamdari,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
One major issue to be considered in today's cities is their resilience which plays an important role in reducing the damage and casualties caused by various natural hazards. These hazards often have devastating effects on human settlements, and resilient settlements in various managerial, physical, economic, and social aspects is a great way to enhance the effectiveness of cities in dealing with a variety of potential and unexpected crises. In this regard, addressing the resilience of cities in different aspects reveals the importance and necessity of research. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors influencing the resilience of cities to natural disasters. The research method is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology. The statistical population includes specialists and experts. FVIKOR model is used to analyze the components and characteristics, and EDAS method is used to show the condition of areas in terms of resilience. The results from Fuzzy VIKOR show the institutional component in the first place with the most score (zero) and the economic component in the last place with the score of 0.287. Also, the results from EDAS in different aspects of the studied areas show high resilience of districts 2 and 5 and low resilience of districts 4 and 8. Generally, more than 50% of Tabriz districts are less resilient.
Neamatallah Safarzaei, Alireza Entezari, Mokhtar Karami, Gholamali Khammar,
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Abstract
Today climate change cause increase in concentration of greenhouse gases has been cause increase extreme events and atmospheric hazards. goal of this research, analyze and review climate future is for atmospheric hazards in sistan region. In this study, to simulate minimum and maximum temperature data used from model data CanESM2 under three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with SDSM statistical scrolling and to simulate rainfall data from the Hadcm3 model under scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) with statistical scrolling LARS-WG. For this purpose, after calibration, validation and data modeling at the selected station, the performance of the model from the viewpoint of the compliance of the base temperature data (1984-2005) and rainfall (1986-2015) with simulation values (2020-2039) evaluated at a significant level of confidence. To adapt base data to simulated data Used of the three criteria root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE). According to simulated data were examined four important atmospheric hazard frost, heat waves, extreme precipitation and drought. The results showed that heat waves and drought in the future are serious threats in the region So that in 2021, under release scenario RCP 2.6, Predicted 32 heat waves and the study area will experience more than five heat waves in the year. In addition, most frequent drought forecast in 2020, under release scenario A1B. Extreme precipitation in some years under scenario B1 can be significant threat in the region. Intensity and abundance annual frost under release scenario RCP2.6 more than other scenarios and lower relative to investigated atmospheric threats.
Hossein Sharifi, Mehrdad Ramezanipour, Leila Ebrahimi,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract
Today, human settlements around the world are exposed to natural hazards for a variety of reasons. These risks, which bring with them a lot of human and financial losses, require preventive measures. The purpose of this study is to investigate the development of urban space in order to deal with environmental hazards in Noor city. The method of this research is also descriptive. Data collection is using library and documentary studies and questionnaires. In order to analyze the questionnaires using ANP method and fuzzy logic method, evaluate each of the criteria and determine their importance coefficients. Based on the results, spatial assessment was performed using ArcGis software and hazard zones were identified. According to the results of risk potential zoning, the northern and southern areas of the city have the highest risk potential. To predict the development of residential areas, the combined Markov chain model and cellular automation were used. The results showed that the continuous expansion of built areas in recent decades has caused rapid changes in land use and the built areas of the city has increased from 2.43% of the total area in 2010 to 3.68% in 2019. The results also showed that regardless of the natural hazards, the built-up areas will increase and as a result of urbanization, the built-up areas will be more prone to high-risk lands. However, if sustainable development policies are fully implemented, cities and built-up areas will be able to maintain their development spaces from high-risk areas for the benefit of the city and its residents.
